2026 AL West Preview & Projections by The BetCrushers

For just the second time in nine years, the Houston Astros did not claim the division crown. The Seattle Mariners legged out their first AL West Championship since 2001 when they went 116-46. Distantly behind them, the Rangers, Athletics, and Angels failed to finish above .500. Although the tide could be lifting them – at least some of them – toward a return to the postseason. If so, we’re talking wild card berth as the Mariners are still the cream of the crop and the Astros aren’t going away quietly. This is our sixth of six division previews so let’s jump into the 2026 AL West and get ready for Opening Day!

The 2026 MLB season ushers in The BetCrushers’ 7th Annual Division Preview series. We look for value in the futures markets in this labor of love, especially regular season win totals. We appreciate all of our faithful and new readers! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.A.)

The M’s finally emerged atop the AL West after a 24 year dry spell, powered by elite pitching and Cal Raleigh’s 60 bombs. (photo: Lookout Landing)

2025 Division Winner: Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners 2026 Win Total: Open 90.5, Now 89.5

2025 Result: Over 85.5 (90-72 / Pythag: 88)

The Mariners and their fans had a collective sigh of relief in September as they dodged a late season meltdown. In fact, the 17-4 run to finish the season was the right way to enter the playoffs. Their deepest postseason run since 2001 fell one game short of reaching the World Series for the first time in franchise history. You might even argue that the 2026 roster is even more potent and the division’s competition is less threatening. Either way, the Mariners stand in again as the favorites to win the AL West and are on the short list of World Series contenders.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

B Donovan (2B/OF)
J Ferrer (RP-L)
R Refsnyder (OF)
A Knizner (C)

Subtractions:

E Suarez (3B)
J Polanco (INF)
B Williamson (3B)
H Ford (C)
T Thornton (RP-R)
C Ferguson (RP-L)

BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 87 – 93

— Position Players —

It says a lot about the Mariners position player group that we’re not leading off with the rotation this year. The Cal Raleigh-powered lineup posted the 3rd most home runs (238) and park-adjusted 113 wRC+ behind the Yankees and Dodgers – the poster boys of out-mashing their opponents. This was Seattle’s best offense since Ichiro Suzuki and Edgar Martinez’ 2001 lineup took the field. Plus they swiped the 3rd most bases (161) at an impressive 81.3% success rate to better capitalize on that power. My unwillingness to significantly upgrade this offense going into 2025 ran right into a buzzsaw that hummed along all year.

Seattle’s switch-hitting catcher had a season for the record books. 60 home runs, 110 runs, and 125 RBI highlighted an epic campaign that fell just short of Aaron Judge and his .331/.457/.688 slash line. Raleigh hit the ball harder than ever, overruling T-Mobile Park’s stinginess with a 19.5% barrel rate that was 4.1% higher than in 2024. Plus the 29-year-old was one of the better defensive catchers. Considering Cal logged over 1000 innings behind the plate and 705 plate appearances, he was undoubtedly Seattle’s MVP.

Seattle Mariners' Cal Raleigh — If it wasn’t for that Aaron Judge guy, Mariners’ catcher Cal Raleigh had a season fit for AL MVP honors. (image: MLB.com)

As noted with Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, tried and true projection systems have a really tough time expecting back-to-back upper echelon seasons. Do the best of the best overcome these calls for regression? Absolutely. Ohtani’s three straight seasons of 172 wRC+ or higher and Judge hammering 200+ wRC+ figures in three of the last four years are prime examples. Cal Raleigh’s 161 wRC+ gets a 30% haircut this winter as the systems are skeptical of much more than 40 home runs. Part of this downtick comes with less expected playing time – somewhere around 70-80 fewer plate appearances. He’s a tough dude playing a tough position. Unless he hits that 700 PA mark again, expect a loss of 2-3 wins from 2025’s amazing 9.1-WAR campaign.

Finding More Answers

Cal was especially potent against left-handed pitching, buoying the lineup’s 12% pop back to 2023 and 2024 levels in this split. Now with the Mets, Jorge Polanco hit lefties 50% above average as part of a strong overall 132 wRC+ primarily in the DH spot. Raleigh will certainly get time at DH again along with the Dominic Canzone/Rob Refsnyder platoon. Canzone’s 141 wRC+ leaned heavily on a .354 BABIP, so pencil him in at plus-10% or better against righties with Refsnyder as a very competent short-side partner.

The Mariners did not get the best of Eugenio Suarez’ 2025 performance. After coming over from the Diamondbacks at the trade deadline, Geno hit just .189/.255/.428 as a replacement for Ben Williamson’s .253/.294/.310 first half. Seattle’s third base situation gets even better with Brendan Donovan holding down the fort. The former Cardinal maintains the position’s neutral defense while improving offensively by 20%. Top prospect Colt Emerson figures to be part of the third base mix at some point as well. This is where Donovan’s flexibility is key. He’s played plenty of second base the last couple years and should split time with prospect graduate Cole Young, who looks to grow from his modest MLB debut. If there’s any concern with these three infielders, they all hit from the left side.

First baseman Josh Naylor does too. Fortunately, the 28-year-old hits lefties at a league-average level while throttling righties. He came to town with Eugenio Suarez last July and was signed to a 5-year/$92.5M contract this offseason. Naylor’s plus-20% bat is a small upgrade over the 2025 first base group’s overall offensive production. Aside from Cal behind the plate and JP Crawford at shortstop, the M’s infield has a very different look from this time last year. It’s important for second year manager Dan Wilson to see what his young infield prospects can do as Crawford is on the last season of his five-year deal. Especially because the 31-year-old rebounded nicely from an injury-filled 2024 to hit .265/.352/.370. Projections put JP closer to his career averages this year, representing a 10% decline due to BABIP headwinds.

Running Back the Outfield

Continuity is king with the Mariners’ outfield configuration. Although right field lacked it when Victor Robles went down early with an injury, Dan Wilson relied on Randy Arozarena for 158 games in left and Julio Rodriguez for 159 games in center. Randy is an ironman of sorts, making 645 or more plate appearances in each of his last four seasons. He topped out at 709 PAs last year, hitting 27 home runs and stealing 31 bases for 2.9 WAR. Defense is debatable depending on grading system but is a reasonable tradeoff for a plus-15% bat without a splits weakness. Let’s hope he gets over that WBC rift with Cal though.

Center fielder Julio Rodriguez got back on track, even though 2024’s 4.0-WAR season was anything but a bust. It was dinged by missing a couple weeks of playing time and a 10% offensive downtick. Nothing to worry about coming off of a 30/30 season with a .267/.324/.474 slash line, right? In fact, that effort generated a value just shy of 6 WAR for the third time in Julio’s young career. The 25-year-old was a top five fielder among all players with 1000+ innings in center field. Combine that with his potent bat and you get the highest valued center fielder in the MLB. And the scary part is his projections for 2026 are in line or even a touch better.

The Mariners don’t quite have the same luxury in right field. Last year’s group ranked 28th in the Majors with 79 wRC+ and bottom third fielding. Victor Robles was sidelined by injury for most of 2025, failing to come close to his .328/.393/.467 second half of the year prior. Some combination of Robles, Dominic Canzone, Luke Raley, and Rob Refsnyder will get the call in 2026. Will they improve the position’s -1.2 WAR? Offensively, sure. Defensively, highly unlikely. Expect this team to finish on the low side of average defensively despite being decent up the middle. Some positions are improved offensively while others stand to face doses of negative regression. Even with a 2-3% reduction at the plate, the Mariners should still clock in with a top five offense.

— Rotation —

George Kirby landing on the IL to begin the 2025 season was a small omen. Logan Gilbert going on the shelf a month later for six weeks was another. These two had been 190+ inning stalwarts of the Mariners rotation for a couple years before hitting these small setbacks. The net result of the starting pitching group was still respectable, however, as measured by their 3.97 ERA and 4.02 FIP/3.84 xFIP. It wasn’t quite up to the standard set in the previous two seasons, although 882.1 innings pitched was 4th highest in the Majors and the 3.56 K/BB ratio ranked 2nd best. No surprise considering the rotation posted the league’s 5th best 23.7% strikeout and 6.7% walk rates.

Losing your top two starting pitchers in the early months of the season can be a tough pill to swallow. Fortunately, right-hander Bryan Woo hung in there to notch career highs in starts (30) and innings (186.2). And there was no sacrifice of quality for quantity with the 26-year-old. He followed up 2024’s 2.89 ERA with a 2.94 ERA and 3.47 FIP/3.33 xFIP valued at a team-leading 3.6 WAR. Equal or better workload with low-to-mid 3.00s matching the last couple season’s underlying numbers retains that value and adds more fuel to the Mariners’ World Series run. The quality of his arsenal continued to be very much plus, as was his command of the strike zone.

Bryan Woo helped pick up the rotation’s slack when two key arms hit the IL. (image: AP Photo/John Froschauer)

Three’s Company

We’re talking about three ace-quality arms atop the 2026 rotation. On paper, anyways. Logan Gilbert lost the edge off of his slider and curve the last couple seasons, though the splitter continues to be elite. The 28-year-old delivered a career-high 32.3% strikeout rate and 15.5% swinging strike rate while coughing up more home runs on fewer ground balls. But the bottom line remained the same: four straight sub-4.00 ERA seasons with three of them no greater than 3.44 ERA. Plus his FIP/xFIP measuring sticks continue to line up nicely. The way I see it, Gilbert’s challenge for 2026 is getting his depth per start back towards 6.0 after last year’s 5.24.

Shoulder inflammation in Spring Training delayed George Kirby’s debut by about seven weeks. Then he was greeted rudely by the Astros and Nationals before turning things around. Cherry pick those two starts out of his 2025 resume and you’re left with a 3.68 ERA and 3.06 FIP/3.15 xFIP. Compare that to his full season 4.21 ERA and 3.37 FIP/3.25 xFIP. I know, if all pitchers could just wipe away their two worst starts and keep the remaining stats, right? Point being, a properly ramped-up George Kirby is a mid-3.00s guy with a 5.00+ K/BB ratio. If reasonably healthy, the Woo-Gilbert-Kirby contingent is a 10-WAR rotation topper.

The More, the Merrier

With those three headlining the rotation’s narrative it can be easy to forget about the durable Luis Castillo. One of my favorites from his Cincinnati days, the 33-year-old delivered a seventh straight sub-4.00 ERA campaign with a 3.54 ERA and 3.88 FIP/4.09 xFIP. There’s a reason why they call him La Piedra (The Rock) – and he’s under contract for at least the next two seasons. Sure, Castillo’s strikeout rate dipped again as his velocity continued to tick down and hard contact popped. There’s no doubt the righty has transitioned from a top-tier arsenal guy to one who pitches to contact successfully with better command of the strike zone. Most projections put Luis on an eighth straight sub-4.00 ERA season that is tough to argue against.

Many analysts have called attention to Seattle’s lack of starting pitching depth even though the farm system is one of the better ones overall. However, their starting pitcher prospects are still a year or two out from debuting. Now the depth situation gets even worse with sixth starter Logan Evans having Tommy John surgery in late January. Evans, Bryce Miller, and Emerson Hancock occupied the #5 slot when not filling in for Gilbert and Kirby during their IL stints. Albeit with much higher ERAs than Seattle’s top four. Ironically, Logan Evans was the best of this bunch as Miller and Hancock posted ERAs of 5.68 and 5.20 as starters, respectively.

We knew Bryce Miller would face stiff headwinds after 2024’s .237 BABIP. But squaring up with that and giving up 7.2% more hard contact led to more home runs. And when you pair that with yielding more hits and walks, the ERA can really skyrocket. Some of this mess can be attributed to less sharpness across the arsenal. But the bigger culprit was command. And there has been some discussion whether removing bone spurs in his elbow will lead to improved effectiveness in 2026. It’s either him or Emerson Hancock, who is certainly more of a pitch-to-contact guy with sub-20% strikeout capability. If you haven’t figured it out already, health is the linchpin of this thin rotation. Avoiding prolonged IL stints should lead to a 2-3 win improvement back towards 2023 & 2024 levels. Otherwise, the M’s will lean on its lineup once again to keep those World Series hopes alive.

— Bullpen —

Much like the rotation, Seattle’s bullpen was perfectly adequate. Their 3.72 ERA, 3.90 FIP/4.04 xFIP, 0.98 HR/9 IP, and 2.66 K/BB ratio all ranked top ten. Yet the 22.6% strikeout rate and .239 average against were their worst figures over the past five seasons. Most importantly, the Mariners retained their strongest weapons and made at least one key addition. Closer Andres Munoz one-upped 2024’s 2.12 ERA with a 1.73 ERA and 2.43 FIP/3.05 xFIP. A little lucky dodging the long ball? Perhaps, though the 27-year-old righty’s K rate stayed north of 30% en route to saving 38 of 45 opportunities. His compadres only mustered 5 saves in their collective 24 attempts. Projections will always be skeptical of staying in sub-2.00 ERA territory, so take those calls for an upper-2.00s season with a grain of salt.

Right-handed setup man Matt Brash missed a month early in the season but made up for it down the line. The rare high-K, high-ground ball pitcher continued to deal some wicked stuff while delivering a 30.6% hard hit rate and 2.47 ERA. Makes sense that his projections are generally in line with last year’s 3.05 FIP/3.03 xFIP. He is joined by left-hander Jose A Ferrer, a prime bounceback candidate coming off of a 4.48 ERA, 3.03 FIP/3.09 xFIP campaign with Washington.

Workhorses Gabe Speier, Eduard Bazardo, and Carlos Vargas are back in the saddle as well. Their 217.2 innings soaked up 37.4% of the bullpen’s workload and pencil out as mid-3.00s to low-4.00s middle relievers in 2026. As important as a bullpen is to a Championship contending squad, this one should be quite good once again. It’s not the Mariners’ strongest suit nor is it a weak spot. Their road does get rougher if the rotation suffers multiple big setbacks, though we saw them persevere in 2025.

Houston Astros 2026 Win Total: Open 84.5, Now 85.5

2025 Result: Over 86.5 (87-75 / Pythag: 83)

The Astros’ playoff run finally came to an end after eight straight postseasons including two World Series Championships in four appearances. Love ’em or hate ’em, that was one hell of a run. Even after losing two lineup pillars in Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, this team somehow stayed in the thick of a playoff race. This winter’s big free agency loss: ace Framber Valdez. Just one more tough pill to swallow for Houston’s grind back to the postseason.