PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
9-2

SEASON RESULTS:
23-13

Week 4 Recap:

When you go with a heavy slate of wagers, you’re either going to have a great betting weekend, a terrible performance, or tread some water.  We were fortunate to experience the first, as we cashed 9 out of our 11 player props in week number five moving our record on the season to 23-13. The Panthers slowed down Devon Achane, and Alvin Kamara did most of his damage in the receiving game, handing us our only two losses.  We faded Jordan Mason, Saquon Barkley, Chase Brown and Derrick Henry, none of whom really ever threatened their respective totals.  We backed Quinshon Judkins, Garrett Wilson, Jake Ferguson, David Montgomery, and Josh Allen’s rushing total, and managed to hit them all.  We mentioned that it felt like a really juicy slate, and we were able to feast.  On to week six.

Week 5 Preview:

Much like last week, there are quite a few player props that look nice, however we’re narrowing our selections down to our five favorite options.  This may seem like a little bit of rinse and repeat, if you’ve been following us, and it really is.  If you need more action, there are a lot of players you can get action on some overs with, like Bijan Robinson, Kimani Vidal, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Allen, and others.  But those all seem to have some variability to them, so we’re going with some things that feel a little more static.  Best of luck to you in week number six!

Our Picks:

Chase Brown – Under 46.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

If it feels like you’ve read this chapter of Prop Corner before, it’s because we’re simply going to keep running the same plays until they aren’t working.  Enter Bengals running back Chase Brown and his under rushing total.  Behind one of the worst offensive lines in the game, Brown is averaging a paltry 2.5 yards per carry, and his yardage totals read 43, 47, 3, 40, and 27, respectively.  Now Brown has to go on the road to face a Packers team that ranks in the top five in run defense, and is a two touchdown favorite against Cincinnati.  The Bengals are looking to veteran Joe Flacco, who has been in town for all of four days to command their offense in a tough environment to play.  If that wasn’t challenging enough, star wide receiver Jamar Chase is battling the flu and may not be 100% in this contest.  Total all of these factors up, and this certainly doesn’t seem like the spot for Brown to rack up big numbers on the ground.  Even with this low total, we’re steering clear and opting to fade.

Patrick Mahomes – Over 266.5 Yards Passing (-115)

Don’t let the record of the Kansas City Chiefs dissuade you from backing Patrick Mahomes in a big matchup against the Detroit Lions.  While the wins may not yet be there for KC, the bright spot is their offense is clicking like we haven’t seen since 2022.  And when we say offense, that’s particularly the passing offense.  Kansas City still isn’t running the ball particularly well, but with Xavier Worthy back in the lineup and the emerging Tyquan Thornton, Mahomes is getting the ball downfield and keeping his team in close games, they’re simply not closing out.  They have a tough test against a physical Lions team, but it looks like the Lions may be without both starting cornerbacks.  Playing backups is not ideal against Mahomes, and he should be able to capitalize on this.  On the other side of the ball, the Lions are the highest scoring team in the league, averaging nearly 35 points per game.  The total for this ballgame is around 52.5 or 53 points so offense is certainly expected. The Chiefs and Mahomes know they’re going to need to score a lot to come away with a needed win, so they’re going to put the ball in the hands of Mahomes and take their chances.  That’s more than enough to get us on board. 

Derrick Henry – Under 73.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Yes, we’re playing with fire by continuing to fade future Hall of Famer Derrick Henry’s rushing prop.  Sooner or later, he’s going to have one of those breakout games, but we’re betting on it not coming this weekend.  The Ravens face a Rams defense that has been stingy against the run, putting the clamps on opposing backs to the tune of 3.6 yards per tote.  With Cooper Rush looking to make his second start, the dual-threat option from the quarterback remains null, which means a lot of stacked boxes to focus on Henry.  With as poorly as the Ravens defense has played with the absence of several defensive starters, it’s very possible Baltimore could be trailing again heavily in the second half, which could vastly limit Henry’s opportunities again this week.  We’ve cashed on this under twice so far, let’s see if we can make it three for three?

Kyren Williams – Over 93.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)

While Derrick Henry may struggle, his counterpart Kyren Williams should have another productive day for the Rams.  Williams has topped 100 total yards in all of the last three games, and with the mentioned injuries to the Ravens, this is possibly his juiciest matchup to date.  Williams should have a legitimate shot to get over this number with just his rushing total alone, but as he’s been worked more into the passing game the last couple of weeks, it gives him some potential extra opportunities to pick up yards.  This prop certainly lines up to hit, with perhaps the biggest risk being extra workload for backup running back Blake Corum should the Rams establish a comfortable lead early. 

James Cook – Over 70.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

For the first time in the 2025 NFL season, the Buffalo Bills tasted defeat a week ago.  Not coincidentally, it was the first time running back James Cook did not hit the100 yard mark rushing.  With the Bills looking to bounce back, they’re likely to go back to what got them to a 4-0 start, which is establishing Cook and the running game.  He faces an Atlanta Falcons defense that is much better at getting pressure on quarterbacks this season than it is at stopping opposing running backs.  The Falcons are allowing over 4.6 yards per carry despite some semi-favorable matchups.  On the fast track in Atlanta, and in primetime, look for Cook to break some nice gainers and get over this do-able total in a bounceback spot for the running game.

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