PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-1

SEASON RESULTS:
10-9

Week 3 Recap:

A nice recovery after a rough week two as we hit our first four player props, before losing our last one to settle at 4-1 on the weekend. Quick recap with Jordan Mason rushing all over the Bengals to hit his yardage mark, Garrett Wilson getting a ton of targets and easily getting over his 5.5 receptions mark, Daniel Jones getting over his yardage total, and Josh Jacobs getting stuff by the Browns defense as we had hoped. Our lone loss was trying to ride the wave of Patrick Mahomes rushing yards in a game where he never really took off on the ground. Solid reads overall though, we’ll always take a 4-1.

Week 4 Preview:

There were so many “intriguing” options to take a flyer on this week with player props, yet not a ton of traditional spots that really looked appealing. We stared and researched Dak Prescott’s rushing total of 5.5 and DeAndre Hopkins over 1.5 receptions for way too long before deciding just to go with what makes more typical sense. With that, we settled on seven total bets, mostly positive, with taking overs, and fading one superstar. We have one repeat from last week we’re going to try to ride again, and one name that’s been mentioned a lot leading up to the weekend.

Our Picks:

Drake Maye – Over 212.5 Yards Passing (-115)

It’s no secret Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel wants to run the ball and be physical, and he stays committed, even when his backs aren’t having much success. Last week they put the ball on the turf multiple times on the way to a disappointing performance. Lost in that “bad” performance is the fact that Drake Maye continues to show signs of being a quality franchise quarterback in the league. The Pats get what should be a little easier assignment to attack when they face the Panthers on Sunday. (Yes the Panthers defense did just pitch a shutout). Overall, it’s not a good unit though, and tough to imagine them performing so well, or the Pats’ turning the ball over so frequently again. Carolina is not great at stopping the run, so there’s always a possibility that Maye won’t get enough attempts to really put up big numbers, but we’re rolling with the youngster. For starters, this game could be closer than many think, it’s not an automatic Patriots rout. But really, this is a matter of playing a number that simply seems way too low, regardless of the matchup. Right now, Maye is 6th in the league in yards, and is averaging nearly 270 per game. Granted, this was against a collection of bad defenses, but that’s also what Carolina is. With a number resting this low, we simply feel like we have to take a shot with him.

Saquon Barkley – Under 83.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

You’ve got to go into a bet like taking a Saquon Barkley under knowing there is always a chance you could get embarrassed. No one would be completely shocked if Barkley went for 200 plus in any given game. We’ll take that gamble here at 83.5 yards as the Eagles head to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa has generally had the Eagles number recently, and this game should be a close one, with the Eagles as just over a field goal favorite. Barkley and the Eagles offense has not looked like the juggernaut we saw most of last season just yet, despite the fact they keep finding ways to win against good opponents. That’s scary for the rest of the league if they do start playing better. Back to Barkley, he’s averaging just 3.3 yards per carry through three weeks and just over 64 rushing yards per contest. By the end of the season it will be shocking if he’s not at 4.5+ yards per carry an a bunch of yards and touchdowns, but this week doesn’t seem like the week that will get started. The Buccaneers are stout as usual against the run, with Vita Vea clogging things up in the middle for a defense that looks to stop the run first. They’re only allowing 3.6 yards per carry and have only given up 250 yards through their first three games. With the Bucs’ offense down some key players of their own, particularly wide receiver Mike Evans, look for them to try to run the ball more on their end. Expect Tampa to sellout to stop Barkley, and force Jalen Hurts to beat them throwing the ball.

Jaylen Warren – Over 23.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Buyer beware here as Jaylen Warren was limited in practice this week with a slight knee issue. It sounds like it was more veteran rest, but if you have concerns about Kenneth Gainwell taking Warren’s workload, steer clear of this one. We’re going to roll the dice here with the same mindset as our Drake Maye wager. This number is just too low for what Warren does in this offense. The last two weeks, Warren has had 10 targets and 110 yards receiving, as Aaron Rodgers is comfortable checking the ball down to him. Expect more of that in this international contest where the Vikings stout defense will look to make things difficult for Rodgers and the running game. The Steelers are also a bit limited at wide receiver. Warren should see another game with 5+ targets if he’s healthy, and that should get him over the very manageable number of 23.5 yards receiving.

Daniel Jones – Over 217.5 Yards Passing (-115)

It ended up being pretty close, but Daniel Jones got us the cover on his low yardage total a week ago, and we’re going to try it again this weekend. Jones and the Colts offense just continues to roll, however they have a very big test against the Los Angeles Rams, one of the sneaky good defenses in the league. The Rams are solid against the run and the pass, and can get after the quarterback. This could certainly be a game where Daniel Jones looks mortal, after looking unstoppable through the first three weeks of the season. Even if he does, this number still seems too lowly adjusted at 217.5 yards. Don’t expect running back Jonathan Taylor to get a monster workload of carries, or for the Colts to be winning this game handily to take the ball out of Jones hands throwing. This game should be a good one, and could be high-scoring, if the Colts continue to run their offense the way the have been. One of these weeks Jones is going to put up a dud, but at this number, we just have to try him again.

Bijan Robinson – Over 3.5 Receptions (-115)

The Atlanta Falcons go to Washington to face the Commanders looking to wash off what was a horrific performance as a team last week against the Panthers. Very little went right for Atlanta, with the once exception being Bijan Robinson, who continues to just glide so smoothly making plays in the running game and the passing game. The Commanders present a formidable challenge to the Atlanta offense, and after last week’s struggles for quarterback Michael Penix, Jr., don’t be surprised if the Falcons try to lean on Robinson even more. Washington has been good against the run thus far, which means Robinson should do his work more in the passing game. Between a game plan that will likely see some safe throws, Penix may also be encouraged to check things down when they’re not there. Robinson is averaging 6 targets a game and over 4 catches, so it’s very reasonable to get this price at 3.5 and look for the over to hit.

Omarion Hampton – Over 63.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

One of the most talked about players heading into week four is Chargers rookie running back Omarion Hampton. The youngster has gotten off to a bit of a slow start, but is coming off his best performance of the year last week. Veteran Najee Harris was sharing the workload with Hampton, before an unfortunate achilles injury a week ago. Now Hampton is the clear lead back, and he’s facing a New York Giants team that, is neither good at stopping the run, or in contention in the NFC after starting 0-3 and making a QB change. Hampton put up 70 last week against a tough Broncs defense in a close game. It’s reasonable to assume the Chargers will be in command of this game, which should mean some good opportunities for Hampton. You can also look at his rushing attempts prop which has risen from 16.5 to 17.5, and is also a mark he’ll likely cross. The Giants have given up the second most rushing yards in the league and are allowing over 5.2 yards per carry as a unit. Despite having a great pass rush core, the interior of their defense has some injuries, and isn’t exactly stellar. This could be a breakout type game for Hampton were he nears or goes over the 100 yard mark.

Brock Bowers – Over 56.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

After a fast start in week one, a knee injury has slowed up Raiders tight end Brock Bowers just a bit. He’s posted 38 yards receiving in each of the last two games. When Bowers was initially injured, it was mentioned that it was the type of injury that would take a week or two to recover from before being back near top-shape. Even with the injury Bowers saw a lot of work, playing almost the entire game last week. With what we hope is a healthy outlook heading into Sunday, he’ll get to take aim at one of the league’s struggling defenses in the Chicago Bears. A consistent lack of a pass rush, and some injuries in their secondary have forced the Bears to play more of a high-scoring type of game. Something head coach Ben Johnson certainly doesn’t mind doing. This game should be no exception, as we should see the offenses on full display. With Geno Smith spreading the ball around to Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker the last two weeks it should open things up just a bit for Bowers to be more the focal point of the offense once again. We’re banking on a big game from the young tight end in this one.

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