A rare weekend post is on deck as summer is officially upon us. It’s long overdue – as is a featured handicap winner. So let’s get right to the point with a solo shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-21-2025. BOL to your action this weekend…
MILWAUKEE BREWERS @ MINNESOTA TWINS (MIN -130, 9.5)
J Quintana (L) vs. S Woods Richardson (R)
With a total of 9.5, game two of this Great Lakes interleague showdown carries expectations for plenty of scoring. This is one part starting pitcher ability and another part Mother Nature. Temps in the 90s, low air pressure, and a stiff breeze out to left are long ball enablers. Will the starters be compatible with the conditions?
Jose Quintana yielded 5 earned runs (7 total) in a rough start against St. Louis last time out. As per usual, walks were his worst enemy as the Cardinals pounced on the left-hander for a season-high 8 hits. The former workhorse has performed above expectation this season with only two true dud outings. Don’t get me wrong, sporting a 10.1% walk rate and 6.9% swinging strike rate makes it very tough to keep opponents off the bases. At least Quintana’s perennially-high ground ball rate (45.6%) plays well with a decent infield group behind him. Although his shift to being a primarily sinker-ball pitcher plays to this strength, Jose’s two-seamer is marginal.
The Counterpunch
Minnesota’s Simeon Woods Richardson has the benefit of youth on his side despite his second full season in the Majors failing to live up to 2024’s baseline. Was his last time out in Houston a sign of positives to come? Perhaps. That .083-BABIP performance was his best this season by far, just one start removed from a brutal game against Texas since being recalled from AAA St. Paul. Putting Woods Richardson on a mid-4.00s projection is fair despite the 5.13 ERA.
Where things get particularly interesting is the Brewers’ offensive form (L7 days: .324/.392/.514) in relation to Simeon’s weaknesses. The young righty puts the ball in the air and gets hit relatively hard while doing it (45.9% hard hit). Across the entire season, both offenses trend above league average. More recent 14-day trends in the second plot below are heavily skewed by Milwaukee’s last five games of prolific results – all against right-handed starters. Minnesota has the overall season-long park-adjusted edge at the plate though.
It needs to be said that the Twins’ weaker side is against southpaw pitching, a slight mitigating force that counteracts Jose Quintana’s low-strikeout capabilities. Plus I put much more weight in his 4.61 FIP/4.63 xFIP than the 3.35 ERA. So no false concept of what the veteran is these days. Similar footing with the starters is one thing, a general deficiency of the Twins to hit lefties is another. DH/OF Trevor Larnach’s hand injury could keep him out of the lineup again this afternoon; otherwise, both lineups are more or less at full strength.
Both starters are realistically maxed out around 5 innings if things go fine for them. The Twins relief unit is more effective overall but are going through a brutal stretch where a .467 BABIP has inflated their ERA to 9.33 versus 2.91 FIP/4.19 xFIP. Milwaukee’s high-leverage group has been nails this past week when needed, though their 4.58 ERA and 5.62 FIP/4.66 xFIP doesn’t have me running to bet the full game. They do have plenty of lefties in the bullpen to play against the Twins’ weaknesses though.
WAGER: Brewers First 5 Innings -105 (0.5u risked)
Since booking this position I’ve seen even money to back Quintana and the Brewers on the first 5 innings line. I don’t take too much away from that, considering Bookmaker is a low-vig book compared to the retail options. Why did I take the first 5 position versus the full game? My numbers make the first half situation more advantageous to the Brew Crew and the bullpen variance gets bypassed. Then again, it’s not like my decision making has led to life changing income from betting the MLB for 15 years. Don’t be like me. Enjoy the weekend, folks.
2025 Featured Handicap Results
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