Only few days into June and it feels like this season is flying by. Some teams are on the verge of checking out; others finding their stride and making hay. This week’s feature involves a pair of teams in an in-between state of affairs who delivered a wild one in the series opener last night. Time to jump right into the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-3-2025 before heading down to BetCrushers HQ for the rest of the week. BOL with your action!
LOS ANGELES ANGELS @ BOSTON RED SOX (BOS -135, 9)
Y Kikuchi (L) vs. B Bello (R)
The Angels struck immediately against Richard Fitts and clung to a 7-6 victory as the Red Sox battled back. Mike Trout’s impact was felt by Mr. Fitts in the form of a 3-run bomb as part of a 3-for-4 performance. The 3x AL MVP’s 4-game stretch since returning from the IL: .571/.571/.857 with 5 RBI. Centerfielder/perennial under-performer Jo Adell seems to have caught the tailwind produced by Trout’s return, slashing .429/.500/1.143 with 3 homers. Even still, the Angels find themselves in the bottom third of park-adjusted offense in the trailing 7-day period.
Boston’s Brayan Bello inherits the task of slowing down those hot hands and keeping his club in the game. Handicapping the 26-year-old righty is a challenge considering how his metrics are all over the place – as are his results. Bello’s 3.83 ERA is muted by a 5.05 FIP/4.47 xFIP impacted by career-low swing-and-miss stuff and a spiked 12.2% walk rate. As most Red Sox faithful and some of the rest of us know, the kid often struggles to stay focused. High pitch counts, multiple walks, etc. limit his efficiency to the extent that Bello hasn’t made it to the 6th inning since May 2nd. Plus a ground ball pitcher without 2024 Gold Glove third baseman Alex Bregman is at a disadvantage.
Angels southpaw Yusei Kikuchi shares some characteristics with Brayan Bello. His stingy 3.06 ERA comes with a 4.36 FIP/4.66 xFIP inflated by a 12.3% walk rate and uncharacteristcally low 9.0% whiff rate. Even so, Kikuchi has not yielded more than 2 earned runs since April 26th. He did cough up 4+ walks in each of his last three starts though. So the question becomes whether the Red Sox lineup is in a position to take advantage of this weakness and provide Bello some run support.
Who Has the Edge: Pitchers or Hitters?
Despite Boston’s furious comeback last night, they struck out nearly five times as frequently as they’ve walked over the past week. The combination of high BABIP (.331) and low power (.106 ISO) has left the lineup scrapping for wins in multiple close contests. Plus Alex Bregman’s .375/.508/.500 line against lefties is becoming more and more noticeable in his absence. This leaves Raffy Devers, Rob Refsnyder, and Carlos Narvaez to do the heavy lifting against Kikuchi. That said, the Angels’ biggest weapon against right-handed pitching, Yoan Moncada, just hit the IL himself.
We have two starting pitchers with decent results and underlying flaws. Lineups not in prime form but with individual bright spots. Are the difference makers the bullpens? Boston’s failed comeback was buoyed by swingman Hunter Dobbins’ 5 innings of 1-run ball, sparing the bullpen as a whole. This is especially important tonight because Brayan Bello likely does not extend past the 5th inning. Manager Alex Cora – who just received the front office’s vote of confidence – has plenty of lefty/righty options in the pen to effectively stretch 4+ innings. Ron Washington’s hands are slightly more tied after throwing his better half into the fire to hold off the charging Sox. After adjustments, I put the Boston relief corps in better shape without knowing the game state come inning #6 this evening.
I marginally like the full game under at 9.5 runs, though this is heavily juiced and a borderline consideration given the price. The Red Sox price around -135 is also nearing playability. For some reason, however, my gut is much more hesitant than my numbers to play the side or total. We’ll see where the rest of the morning takes me as I sharpen the pencils and finalize our card.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES @ TORONTO BLUE JAYS (PHI -145, 8.5)
C Sanchez (L) vs. B Francis (R)
It’s rinse-and-repeat time in this one as my money is on the Blue Jays and, specifically, starting pitcher Bowden Francis. He was the subject of May 22nd’s feature when the scuffling Padres lineup went north of the border to produce a damn good game. Gavin Sheets smacked him for a home run and continued to menace the Jays in the extra-inning affair that ultimately (fortunately) went our way. Francis finds himself an underdog once again as the Phillies come to town looking for extra offensive juice.
Philadelphia is one of the better hitting clubs away from home and could very well see Bryce Harper return to the lineup today. While Harper was out with an elbow injury the Phils are slashing .216/.303/.345. Bowden Francis may want him to rest another day but skipper Rob Thomson absolutely needs the future Hall of Famer to provide a spark against the often-accommodating starting pitcher. His starting pitcher Christopher Sanchez is not completely out of the woods either. The Jays are a top five lineup against southpaws and expect Tyler Heineman’s hot hand back from the concussion IL. They are hitting the ball quite well and have a massive splits disparity in their favor at home (.270/.342/.451). This strength vs. strength is in contradiction to Philly’s offensive lull against an accommodating Bowden Francis.
WAGER: Blue Jays +128 (0.5u)
Being on the Jays in all three of closer Jeff Hoffman’s blown saves does not make me feel special by any means. However, Toronto’s bullpen has been rock solid in the trailing 7-day period (1.91 ERA, 2.69 FIP/3.35 xFIP) and last two weeks (2.12 ERA, 2.96 FIP/3.49 xFIP). Philly’s relievers sport 4.50+ figures in both periods, although neither bullpen should have availability issues after having Monday off. Christopher Sanchez is a tough nut to crack and Bowden Francis tests my resolve to back the Jays, but too many other elements put this game closer to parity. I took the +125 this morning on a half-unit position while I work everything else out. Francis and Hoffman made me sweat for it a couple weeks ago. I won’t be surprised if I am holding on for dear life at the end of this one.
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