Previous Week Plays – 2-2
Season Record – 27-29
Week 15 Recap:
We so desperately needed a 4-0 sweep in week 15, and we were literal seconds away from making it happen. However things have a funny and often depressing way of working out, which meant we ended up going 2-2 instead. We’ll break down the “what if” in a minute, but let’s hit the positive wins first. We had the Ravens team total which cashed in the third quarter and would have been worse if the Giants had scored more. We also had the Packers in their road matchup against the Seahawks, which was really never in doubt. Now for our two losses… We were completely fading Jake Haener and the Saints as we bet under 17.5 team points. We also had a teaser bet with the Commanders in that game at -1.5 which was paired with the Vikings. Minnesota was fine on their end. The Commanders were up 17-0 at the half, and the Saints had less than 60 yards of total offense. The teaser and the team total under looked great. The Saints went with Spencer Rattler in the second half, and they were like a totally different team somehow. Even still, both bets looked fine at the end until the Commanders gave the ball to the Saints with less than 2 minutes left. Rattler drove them down the field, and New Orleans scored with no time left on the clock. The even more frustrating piece is the NFL admitted their officials made an error, stopping the clock after a completed pass for New Orleans. It’s possible the Saints still could have spiked it to get a play off, but we’ll never know for sure. All of that to say, we’re no better off, and of course worse off with the vig, than we were a week ago on the season. This game can really frustrate you at times.
Week 16 Picks:
Just a few plays for week 16 that are similar to a week ago, although with a teaser added back into the fold this weekend. We’re backing favorites in that teaser, as well as one against the spread. We’re going over on a sky-high team total as well. Three bets, looking for an unbelievable first sweep of the year.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders
vs. 
Philadelphia Eagles (12-2) vs. Washington Commanders (9-5)
Sunday December 22nd
1:00pm
Northwest Stadium – Landover, MD
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 (-105)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
The Philadelphia Eagles have clearly emerged as the top dog in the NFC East, and they’ll hit the road to face their biggest divisional challengers this season in Washington. The Commanders have cooled off just a bit after their hot start, but are still well positioned to be in the playoffs and potentially cooking up some upsets. How far is the gap between the top team and the second best team in the division?
It’s impossible to know what the dynamic is with Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts and wide receive A.J. Brown, and we won’t begin to pretend we do. What we do know is they patched up any differences a week ago in another Eagles win, and now have to take on the Commanders. Brown is actually questionable to play, which could be a big deal in a game of this magnitude. We say “could”, because it also may not have a huge impact on the game plan for the Eagles. The Commanders have really been vulnerable to the run in the second half of the season, allowing nearly 5 yards per carry to opponents. Defensive tackle Johnathan Allen was also ruled out for this contest making the rotation even a bit slimmer. After a couple of “human” performances from Saquon Barkley, this could be an opportunity for him to go back into superstar mode and really carry the game for Philly on offense. The Eagles dominant offensive line has a clear advantage in the trenches here, as they usually do. Even if A.J. Brown can’t go, Jalen Hurts should be able to do enough with Devonta Smith to keep this offense moving the chains.
Jayden Daniels struggled a bit in his first matchup with the Eagles, and many are expecting a better performance in the rematch. He’s at home, which should help a bit, but facing the Eagles defense is no joke right now. Even void of some pass rush talent, the Eagles are still playing good defense overall, as the interior of their defensive line is becoming elite. When you combine that with improved linebacker play and a talented young secondary, it’s enough to give any rookie quarterback trouble. The Commanders will try to get the running game going with Brian Robinson, Jr., but don’t count on a huge day from him. Washington really does need Robinson to get to 18+ carries in this game if they’re going to win, even if the yardage isn’t great. Daniels and Terry McLaurin have been on fire of late, but let’s see if the veteran can get the better of the young corners of the Eagles? The two things to really keep an eye on with the Washington offense in this game are how effective Daniels can be with his legs, and who can step up besides McLaurin to generate some offense.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The Eagles are 6-1 straight up in their last 7 road games vs. the Commanders
– The Commanders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
The Eagles have been a lot more good to us than they have been bad in terms of betting this season. We’re hopping on board again despite laying the hook in a road divisional game. The discrepancy between these teams is much great than the number, so if all goes according to the way it should, the Eagles will win this and cover. Things don’t always go the way they should, that’s why it’s gambling. But give us the road favorite here for the cover.
BetCrushers Take: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
Philadelphia Eagles 28, Washington Commanders 21
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
vs. 
New England Patriots (3-11) vs. Buffalo Bills (11-3)
Sunday December 22nd
4:25pm
Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Buffalo Bills -14 (-110)
Over/Under 46.5 (-110)
AFC East rivals tangle in Orchard Park when the red-jerseyed Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots on Sunday. This will be the first matchup over the next 20 days between these two familiar opponents, each with different aspirations to finish the 2024 season.
The Patriots have shown some things they can build on as they look ahead to their future around rookie quarterback Drake Maye. Realistically speaking though, this team needs a lot of help. It starts with the offensive line, which really has two or three guys starting who probably shouldn’t be at this level. The Bills have been very inconsistent with their pass rush this season, but they’ve been much better at home. They should be able to take advantage of this to get some pressure on Maye. As a result, we’ll see some turnovers, something the Bills lead the league in, and again have been even better at, when they’re playing at home. The Pats ideal game plan will be to get Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson going with the run game to keep the Bills offense off of the field. Although the Bills are usually a defense that funnels to the run, don’t be surprised if after the first possession they do get a little more aggressive at trying to stop the run, and forcing Maye and the offense to throw. Without a real receiving threat, Buffalo will allow their corners to match up and expect them to win. That’s even with Rasul Douglas being unlikely to play. Don’t be shocked if you hear some names like Kair Elam on your broadcast in a game like this one. The Patriots really need to try to start fast so they don’t get too far behind, putting Maye and the team in a very precarious position.
The Bills offense is absolutely rolling, and it’s due to a combination of things. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady is finding his groove and learning how to vary his attack depending upon the opponent. And well, it helps that he has the MVP of the league playing some of the best football of his life, with video-game like numbers the last few weeks. The Bills offense should continue to feast in this game, as long as they’re focused and don’t sleepwalk through an “easy” game, after facing some of the better opponents in the league over the last 4 games. Look for a steady diet of the Bills running game, as the Patriots have been soft, as called out by their own coach against it. James Cook, Ray Davis and the emerging Ty Johnson all bring different traits to the backfield position, and all should see some snaps on Sunday. In terms of throwing the ball, Josh Allen may not be asked to do much if the running game is moving the chains. In breaking down the Bills passing game in this game or any time this season, it’s really just who is open? That’s helpful when playing an opponent like the Patriots, who have more or less one “shutdown” type corner in Christian Gonzalez. Whoever Gonzalez takes away will simply not be a target, and Allen should work the rest of the field. As long as Allen and the Bills are safe with the football, they should work their way to another productive offense day as they can set a team record for consecutive games over 30 and 40 points, respectively.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Patriots are 2-11 straight up in their last 13 games
– The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Bills
– The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 6 games for the Bills
There’s a reason this spread is two touchdowns, and if it weren’t for a possible letdown, and it being a division game, we’d be tempted to lay the points with the Bills. Heck, we’re still tempted. We’re going to go with the Bills team total instead, just in case their defense continues to struggle and the Patriots hit some big plays. The Bills total is a manageable 30.5. That’s a high number, but when you’ve gone over 30 points in 8 straight games, and averaged 36 points per game in that stretch, it’s really not. If you can do that against defenses like the Chiefs, you can do that against teams like the Patriots at home. It’s going to be chilly in Buffalo, but the sun should be out and the wind won’t be too crazy. The only thing that could stop the Bills from going over this total is themselves.
BetCrushers Take: Buffalo Bills – Team Total – Over 30.5
Buffalo Bills 34, New England Patriots 17
Teaser Bet
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
vs. 
and 
vs.
Detroit Lions (12-2) vs. Chicago Bears (4-10)
Sunday December 22nd
1:00pm
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Detroit Lions -7 (-110)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)
Cleveland Browns (3-11) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (6-8)
Sunday December 22nd
1:00pm
Paycor Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Cincinnati Bengals -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under 46.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Detroit Lions -1 and Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
We’re looking to go on a teaser bet winning streak to wind down the season, and will be pairing a couple of touchdown plus favorites in week 16. The Cincinnati Bengals are looking to keep their slim playoff hopes alive against a Browns team that has seemingly thrown in the towel for the rest of the year. The very woulded Detroit Lions have a road matchup against the Bears in the NFC North, that all of a sudden means a lot in the crowded division.
The Cleveland Browns mostly have owned Joe Burrow and the Bengals at home, but it’s been tougher for them on the road. That often happens with bad and mediocre teams, and this Sunday’s version of the Browns can be considered on the bad side. Cleveland effectively gave up any chance of winning a shootout when they decided to put Jameis Winston back on the bench and give the keys back to Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Browns quarterback is simply just not a starting quarterback in this league. With DTR at the helm, some of the nice momentum wide receiver Jerry Jeudy had built up will likely fizzle, and what looks like an absence of tight end David Njoku makes the passing game look very weak. Throw in the sad Nick Chubb injury, and it’s basically the Jerome Ford show for the Browns. On the positive side, the Bengals defense continues to be pretty awful, so maybe the Browns can keep the game close if they can get some points on the board? On the Cincinnati side of things, despite Joe Burrow looking pissed off, all this offense does is keep rolling. The Browns defense has been decent, albeit disappointing, but it really doesn’t seem to matter who the Bengals are facing on this side of the ball. Burrow and Chase are playing at a different level, and Chase Brown has quietly been one of the top running backs in the league as a workhorse. The Browns can win their share of battles with their defense, but the Bengals offense is simply too powerful, and will win the overall war there.
The Detroit Lions offense continues it’s recent tear across the league, but for the first time this season will be without their dynamic duo at running back. With David Montgomery out for the season, or most of the season, it’s the Jahmyr Gibbs show on the ground. That’s not a terrible thing, as Gibbs is the more explosive of the two backs, and is more than capable of chewing up the Chicago Bears suspect run defense. It will be worth monitoring though, as when strong duo running backs go to one back, there often seems to be a big dropoff in recent years. How much extra work will Gibbs take on, versus Craig Reynolds getting more work? Throwing the ball should be fine, as the emergence of Tim Patrick can only help the trio of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta. Jared Goff has looked great, and although he isn’t as effective outdoors, the weather looks decent enough in Chicago that he should be alright. As always, the offensive line can help all of that if they do what they should do against the Bears, and dominate the trenches. Conversely, the Bears offensive line is banged up, and not playing great to begin with. Between weak offensive line play, and quarterback Caleb Williams uncertainty throwing, the Lions can create some havoc with their defense. Of course nowhere near the havoc they would have created with a full defensive roster. Their defense is literally half on injured reserve, with Aidan Hutchinson and now Alim McNeill leaving huge voids on the defense line. The secondary is also getting really thin, so we’ll have to see how well they can match up against quality receiving weapons for the Bears. The simple breakdown here is, a healthy Lions defense would have been effective in stopping the Bears offense. The roster they’ll march out this weekend could have a lot more trouble.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Lions are 6-0 straight up in their last 6 road games
– The Lions are 5-1 straight up in their last 6 games vs. the Bears
– The Bears have lost 8 straight games
– The Browns have lost 6 straight road games
– The Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games
A couple of weeks ago, the Bengals part of this teaser would have been the bigger concern, and the Lions would have been stress-free. Fast forward now, and the Bengals leg seems like easy money, and the Lions feel like the nervous side. That will happen with quarterback changes and injuries. We’re going to fade Dorian Thompson-Robinson any chance we get, so it’s Bengals all the way. We’ll see how the Lions respond the continued mass of injuries they are accruing, but it should be enough to beat the Bears. Let’s take the 2 teams that have more to play for, and better quarterback play and hope they can get the wins.
BetCrushers Take: Tease Lions -1 and Bengals -2.5
Lions 29, Bears 24 / Bengals 30, Browns 13
