PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-5
SEASON RESULTS:
43-45
Week 14 Recap:
Week 14 was possibly our favorite collective slate of player prop bets we’ve had in Prop Corner for the 2024 season, and it resulted in a net loss at the end of the day. No matter how ridiculous it’s becoming, we’re sticking with the plan over the last month of the regular season. A quick recap goes like this: Justin Herbert fell just shy of his passing total as he couldn’t get the ball back at the end of the Chiefs game to overcome the number. Jakobi Meyers was a sweat, but he did sneak past his total in the second half for the Raiders. The Buccaneers relied on Rachaad White as Bucky Irving entered the contest dinged up, and left early with a separate injury. As a result of getting just 4 carries, he wasn’t getting anywhere near his yardage total. We won pretty easily with our two stud horses, backing Justin Jefferson and Saquon Barkley, both of whom had monster days in their respective wins. Three running back losses as Bijan Robinson ran hard against the Vikings beating our fade on him, and Alvin Kamara and Tyrone Tracy, Jr. both found it tough to grind out yards in the battle of pathetics in the NFC. Rico Dowdle cruised to a win on his yardage on Sunday Night to round out the card.
Week 15 Preview:
We’ve got another pretty heavy card again with 8 bets for Prop Corner in week 15. We’re surprisingly fading a pair of the league’s better performers, and backing a few guys from teams that haven’t produced a lot of wins this year. There’s got to be a reason to watch the Panthers and Cowboys, right? One quarterback, one wide receiver, and a slew of running backs on the ticket. Let’s have a weekend!
Our Picks:
Adam Thielen – Over 52.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Don’t look now but the Carolina Panthers are actually favored to win a football game in the 2024 season. The Panthers will host the Dallas Cowboys looking to continue some pretty solid play since Bryce Young was re-inserted as the starting quarterback. Young isn’t the only player to come back strong, as wideout Adam Thielen has bounced back from a slow start to the season and injury to looking like the Thielen of yesteryear over the last three weeks. Since he’s been back in the lineup, and without Diontae Johnson, Thielen has gone for 57, 99, and 102 yards, respectively. That’s on averages of over 8 targets and 6 receptions per game. It’s been impressive as Thielen has gotten open, and made some highlight-worthy catches during the stretch. He has a nice matchup against the Cowboys, who will be thin again in the secondary without Trevon Diggs and a still banged up Jourdan Lewis. Dallas is one of two teams in the league that allows over 8 yards per reception and gives up over 68% completion percentage to opponents. Thielen should be an active target again, and in a strong matchup he should be counted on to produce another quality stat line.
Tua Tagovailoa – Under 272.5 Yards Passing (-115)
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovalioa has been fantastic over the last month leading the league in completion percentage and tossing for over 300 yard in three straight games. He’s undoubtedly playing great, but no player can dominate every single week. This weekend we’re expecting a little less production from Tua against a Texans defense that has been pretty darn good at home. One of the interesting notes on Tua’s nice production of late, is he’s actually not been as quick getting rid of the football. That can be looked at as a little bit of good and a little bit of bad. In this case, holding the ball is not a good thing, as the Texans rank 4th in pressure rate behind Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, Jr. On the other side of the ball, the Texans offense continues to have some struggles of their own, particularly throwing the football. This game should see some attempted running for both teams, which could mean fewer attempts for Tagovailoa as a whole. Going against a player that’s been a hot streak can be risky, however the matchup doesn’t merit this number. We’ll go under.
Josh Jacobs – Under 76.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
The acquisition of Josh Jacobs has proved fruitful for the Green Bay Packers as he’s been the workhorse producer they hoped when bringing him in. He ranks 4th in the league in both carries and yards, already surpassing the 1,000 yard mark. He’ll be a big key to the Packers success on Sunday as they face the “12’s” and the Seahawks in one of the most important games of the weekend. Earlier in the season, this would have been a pretty juicy matchup for Jacobs, as the Hawks’ were having some challenges stopping the run. That’s flipped recently however, as Leonard Williams is playing the best football of his career in the interior of the Seattle defense. Additionally, the addition of Ernest Jones IV at middle linebacker has toughened things up in the middle. These are just two of the factors that have the Seahawks defense playing as well against the run as anyone in the league over the last five or six weeks of the season. This will certainly be a bit of a strength on strength situation, and Jacobs will see his share of carries, and should rack up a decent amount of yards. We’re just banking on it being a little bit short of what is a pretty high number against a run defense playing so well.
Aaron Jones – Over 62.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
The Minnesota Vikings offense started the season hot, and hasn’t skipped a bit as they’re positioning themselves to make some noise in the playoffs. How the Vikings attack opposing teams can vary week to week as they’re balanced both running and throwing the football. Their matchup with the Bears on Sunday should lead to the rushing attack being a little more weighted than the passing attack. For starters, the Bears are one of the worst teams in the league at stopping the run, ranking bottom five in most metrics. Additionally, the Vikings are near touchdown favorites at home as the Bears season is unofficially over, with little to play for. If the Vikings can get ahead, the game script should lead to plenty of touches for Jones. In their first meeting this season, Jones topped 100 yards in his best performance of the season in Chicago. This could be another realistic opportunity for Jones to have another 100 yard day. With a total in the low 60’s, we’ll take a flyer on the over.
Jahmyr Gibbs – Over 94.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)
There’s a really good chance you can take a lot of player overs and you’ll do pretty well in the matchup between the Bills and Lions Sunday afternoon. The total is at 54.5, and the top 2 scoring offenses in the league will take a crack at defenses that are missing several key starters for both squads. David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Khalil Shakir and Josh Allen are all potentially great overs to play. We’re going to focus on Lions Jahmyr Gibbs however, as he may have the best matchup potential based on all factors. Gibbs has recently overtaken Montgomery in snap share, as he’s become more of the 60% player to 40% for Montgomery. He’ll be facing a Bills defense that funnels their defense to the run, begging teams to hand the football off. The Lions have no objections to this, and their top three offensive line should have little trouble handling the underproducing defensive line of the Bills. Gibbs is also one of the top receiving backs in the league, which is a dream scenario against the Bills. Buffalo ranks third to last in stopping receiving backs, so Gibbs should get some opportunities to make things happen in the passing game. Add in the fact, the Bills top tackler in the secondary Taylor Rapp will not be playing, and Gibbs should be in line for a huge day. Needing near 100 yards may seem a little scary, but the number is high for a reason. Gibbs will be in for a big day and we’re going to try to ride it.
Chuba Hubbard – Over 81.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Would you believe that Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard is only a handful of yards away from being in the top three in rushing in the league? That’s pretty remarkable for a team that has been behind a lot this season and doesn’t have the best offensive line or receiving weapons. It’s really a credit to Hubbard who runs hard and has looked pretty slippery to defenses all season. He has one of his lighter matchups on paper when the Panthers host the Cowboys in a game where the team is actually favored. Dallas enters the contest with very little to play for, and will be without emerging linebacker Demarvion Overshown, who was lost for the season a week ago. The Cowboys have been one of the worst teams defending the run all season, and there’s little to believe they’ll step it up in this contest. Hubbard has had his best games rushing this year against the lesser run defenses in the league, including the Giants, Bears, Falcons, Saints, Bengals and Raiders. Notice the theme? Hubbard the Panthers chew up yards against soft run defenses. He should continue that streak against the Cowboys, and in what should be a four quarter performance in a predictably tight ballgame.
Rico Dowdle – Over 81.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Chuba Hubbard isn’t the only running back that should flourish in the contest between the Panthers and Lions. Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle is coming off of his three best games of the season, behind a Cowboys offensive line that has stepped up their run blocking in particular. He’s tallied an impressive 86, 112, and 136 yards during the stretch, all above his total for Sunday of 81.5 yards. The Panthers rank dead last in yards per carry allowed as one of only two teams giving up over 5 yards per tote. Dallas has a limited passing offense behind quarterback Cooper Rush, which has forced them to lean on Dowdle and the running game. After splitting some carries early in the year, Dowdle has emerged as the clear lead back snatching up nearly all of the carries out of the backfield. With him getting a hefty workload against a defense that is still missing arguably it’s top pair of players and a few others banged up, he should be in line for yet another strong game.
Brian Robinson, Jr. – Over 76.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Our final player prop bet of our week 15 writeup features Commanders running back Brian Robinson, Jr. in a spot where he should absolutely shine. We mentioned the Panthers being one of two teams giving up 5 yards per carry to opposing teams, and the New Orleans Saints would be the other. No team has given up more yards over the past 9 weeks on the ground than New Orleans, and Robinson will be the next to feast on this unit. Robinson should see plenty of work for a couple of reasons. First, backup and pass catching back Austin Ekeler is out. Second, the Commanders are over a touchdown favorite in this game where the Saints will be starting third string quarterback Jake Haener at quarterback. Washington should have a lead in the second half of this game where the Saints are likely to have a poor time of possession. Robinson has eclipsed this yardage total in all but one game where the Commanders have been favorites. The game script and opportunity will clearly be here for Robinson. He just needs to get it done, and we think he will.
