What a race. More specifically, what a finish in Sunday night’s Southern 500! There was plenty to take away between Martin Truex Jr. putting himself on shaky ground and season first-time winner Chase Briscoe punching his postseason ticket at the last possible moment. Briscoe’s Crown Jewel victory and Harrison Burton’s win the week prior ultimately squeezed out hopefuls Chris Buescher and Bubba Wallace from playoff contention. Now we’re on the cusp of a ten-race run to the 2024 Cup Series Championship and the tension is thick throughout the field. You know the deal: 16 Championship hopefuls are cut to 12 after the next three races. Atlanta is on deck, so buckle up for our 2024 Round of 16 Preview! As always, stay tuned for The Bank on NASCAR pod’s breakdown of the Quaker State 400 for DFS and matchup handicapping. BOL and enjoy!
Uno, Dos, Adios: The 2024 Cup Series Round of 16
Three races separate four playoff teams from elimination. NASCAR shook up the postseason race lineup from prior years’ Round of 16 trio of Darlington, Kansas, and Bristol. Now the agenda features Atlanta, Watkins Glen, and Bristol. And with that comes plenty of questions: Is Atlanta an inviting spot for those below the cut line to jump above it? Will The Glen further separate those who can negotiate the chicanery from those who can’t? And who’s up for the challenge of surviving the Bristol Night Race?
The Playoff Picture
Tyler Reddick edged out Kyle Larson for the Regular Season Cup Series Championship with the help of some Tums and by virtue of Larson not making the Coca-Cola 600. Let that sink in for a minute. Kyle fell short of this honor by just 1 point despite missing an entire points-paying race. Regardless, 15 bonus points ride with Tyler until elimination or the Championship 4. Race winners, stage winners, and the top ten regular season finishers roll their playoff points over each round, granting a crucial edge over the field. Talk about a scary proposition when Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell have a head start! Yet nobody, including those with a big points stash, can afford to suffer one or more rough weekends. Plus the 2024 Round of 16 kicks off with a wild one in Atlanta after two straight weeks of tough sledding at Daytona and Darlington!
An Extra Dose of Variance at Atlanta
Last summer’s Atlanta race was shortened by rain, nonetheless, Cup Series rising star William Byron prevailed for his second victory on the reconfigured 1.5-mile oval. With the 2024 playoff schedule shakeup, the “wild card” race shifts from Daytona as the final regular season contest to Atlanta as the Round of 16 opener. It may – or may not – be as much of a crapshoot as Daytona or Talladega. Still, my team ratings at this high-banked intermediate track deviate significantly from what you’d see at Bristol, Kansas, or any other non-plate racing track.
Byron may be the defending race champion but Daniel Suarez is the most recent Atlanta winner, having punched his playoff ticket way back in the fifth race of the campaign. I won’t go as far to say that this weekend’s race is for long shots like I would for Daytona or Talladega though. Since the track’s reconfiguration, winners include the aforementioned Suarez and Byron – twice, by the way – Chase Elliott, and Joey Logano.
Our Top 5 Playoff Drivers at Atlanta
- Ryan Blaney – What’s not to like about four straight Atlanta top 10 finishes and five races with top 5 ratings? The #12 team should have a more optimistic view this weekend compared to how both Daytona races and Talladega ended up. At least this bunch isn’t in life or death mode at Atlanta with a couple favorable races wrapping up the 2024 Round of 16.
- William Byron – The #24 HMS team is right up there with Ryan Blaney as prime Atlanta “Superspeedway” contenders. Byron is edged out in our rankings due to less consistency here since the reconfiguration. However, he is as hot as they come on the drafting tracks this season.
- Chase Elliott – Having just one regular season victory under his belt this year puts Chase in a gotta make up ground position. But the #9 team isn’t in desperation mode by any means with Watkins Glen and Bristol up ahead. Scoring well without selling out is the key for Elliott.
- Austin Cindric – It’s hard not to be high on the #2 team given his prowess on the drafting tracks. But as we saw a couple weeks ago at Daytona, Cindric’s skillset and strong race ratings in these situations don’t always pan out at the end. Unlike Chase Elliott, Austin needs a win or a huge points day at minimum.
- Joey Logano – I hate to look at it this way, but Atlanta may be the #22 team’s only true opportunity to gain position and hold on for dear life through this round. He and teammate Austin Cindric find themselves in very similar situations on the front end of the Round of 16.
Survive and Move On
Top dogs Larson, Bell, Reddick, and Byron are in advantageous points positions to begin the 2024 Round of 16. Although almost anything can happen in a drafting race, the downside risk of busting out and failing to have a good points day can be equally as impactful – in an opposite sense, of course. Even someone like Ty Gibbs who carries just 2 playoff points must keep his nose clean at Atlanta and get to where he can gain positions in the standings. As for Daniel Suarez, Alex Bowman, and especially Harrison Burton, a win-and-advance proposition is their best route to the Round of 12.
Winding Through The Glen
One of NASCAR’s two mainstay road courses on the schedule for decades, Watkins Glen International sits in the middle of the Round of 16 fray. And it’s deja vu all over again with William Byron serving as the defending race champion. The Glen joins the hybrid Charlotte Roval as road course playoff tests for the field this season. No doubt that its change in positioning from the second to last regular season race into the heart of this round raised some eyebrows in the offseason.
That’s water under the bridge now because 16 teams are faced with the challenge of tackling WGI in a whole new context. What makes this a tough scheduling spot for the bottom half of the playoff field is how the top half generally excels here. Other than Martin Truex Jr. and Ty Gibbs, those sitting in lower positioning – as it stands today – are pressed to not let the others gain too much ground on them.
Our Top 5 Playoff Drivers at Watkins Glen
- Tyler Reddick – Reddick delivers tons of consistency on the road courses, especially now as a more experienced Cup Series driver. Six out of seven road races going back to 2023 saw finishes no worse than P8. As for Watkins Glen, Tyler has top 10 finishes in all three contests with ratings to match. Considering how the #45 team is achieving new highs at many tracks this summer, a top 5 result is a very reasonable expectation.
- Christopher Bell (arguably 1A) – C-Bell rates right up there with Reddick, also claiming three top 10 results here since joining the Cup Series ranks. Five top 10s across the seven road courses since 2023 isn’t too shabby either. He and Tyler have a prime opportunity to extend their margins above the cut line going into Bristol.
- Chase Elliott – The #9 team hasn’t been quite as consistently strong on the road courses compared to the first two teams. Even so, Chase delivered four P4 or better finishes at The Glen going back to 2018. Last season’s run was disappointing on the heels of that stretch which includes two wins and a runner up. Anything short of a big day is a serious letdown considering they’ve registered five top 10 race ratings on the last six road courses.
- Ty Gibbs – Bad news: Sonoma broke up a three-race top 5 road course streak. Good news: the #54 crew delivered a top 3 car in the three prior road races. A P5 in his only Cup start at Watkins Glen indicates a good points day. Is Gibbs’ pre-Coca-Cola 600 form back in time for the playoffs?
- Kyle Larson – Road course finishes going back through the 2023 season are all over the place with the #5 team. However, Larson produced four top 10 finishes at The Glen from 2018-2022 including wins in 2021 and 2022. Look for this crew to gobble up points going into Bristol.
Potential Movers at Watkins Glen
- Martin Truex Jr. 🔺 – A disappointing 2022 race rudely cut off a five year top 10 finish run at Watkins Glen. Maybe this is more of a MTJ must be a mover here to have a chance situation. Is last year’s P6 finish enough to restore a positive outlook, or will his the #19’s woes continue? This is his spot to leap frog several playoff positions over those who struggle on the road courses.
- Ty Gibbs 🔺 – Of course the #54 team is a potential mover at The Glen with my fourth-highest rating. This is a prime spot for Ty to jump multiple positions in the standings.
- Brad Keselowski 🔻- Failing to crack the top 10 in any of the seven road course races since the start of last season is one thing. Sitting behind a handful of accomplished road racers in the playoff standings is another. Plus Keselowski likely faces pressure from the likes of Martin Truex Jr. and Ty Gibbs if they’re below him after Atlanta. Fortunately, Brad finds himself in a logjam of mediocre road racers below the top half who could help keep him on the right side of the cut line.
Surviving the Cut At the Bristol Night Race
Hate to break the trend but no, the defending Bristol Night Race winner is not William Byron. Denny Hamlin claims that distinction. In fact, the #11 team boasts back-to-back Bristol victories as part of four straight top 10 finishes there. No pressure on Denny for a three-peat after his stiff 10 playoff point penalty, right? Holding the 2024 Round of 16 elimination race in the Bullring under the lights delivers plenty of tension in addition to the rewards for the champ.
Bristol Motor Speedway is an animal all its own, although the steep banks have similarities to Dover Motor Speedway. So it’s tough to find comps that actually mean something. You either have it, or you don’t at The Last Great Coliseum. For four unfortunate drivers, the Bristol Night Race will end their 2024 Cup Series Championship hopes.
Our Top 5 Playoff Drivers at Bristol
- Denny Hamlin – Back-to-back dubs at Bristol justifies popping him up to the top – plus he won at Dover this year. This is his spot to tack on more playoff points.
- Kyle Larson – Larson sat atop this same list in last year’s Round of 16 preview and realistically comes in as a very close 1A. Also a contender for playoff points. What else can you say about a dude who’s done nothing but nail down top 5 finishes since coming to Hendrick Motorsports?
- Chase Elliott – The common theme with Elliott is being ranked our #3 driver in all three Round of 16 races. He’s winless at Bristol – unless you count the 2020 All-Star Race – but has delivered top 10 finishes in this car including a runner up in 2022.
- Christopher Bell – Much like Chase, C-Bell is a top 10 performer in this ride including two top 5s and the highest-rated race in 2023. He and Elliott could swap spots on this list but my numbers bump up the #9 due to Dover strength.
- Brad Keselowski – Short of having a huge day at Atlanta, Keselowski may be backed into the corner at Bristol. The path to making it out of the Round of 16 then comes down to a top 5 finish with loads of stage points like this spring.
Potential Movers at Bristol
- Brad Keselowski 🔺- There’s a scenario where Brad’s 8th position drops dangerously close to the cut line after Watkins Glen. Bristol can bite anyone at any time but you know The Bullring is a sight for Keselowski’s sore eyes.
- Joey Logano 🔻 – It’s been years since Joey has seen success here. And there are plenty of reasons why the finishes are brutal in the Next Gen car. The key for Joey is to avoid mishap at Atlanta and he should squeeze past the cut this round.
- Austin Cindric 🔻- P20 back in 2022 has been as good as it gets at Bristol for Cindric. And the underlying numbers don’t paint a prettier picture either. Bristol could be the #2 team’s farewell to the playoffs without a huge Atlanta.
Pinning Down the Round of 12
Projecting the cut to 12 playoff drivers is tricky. Playoff points matter. Regular points matter. Plus each of the first couple rounds feature drafting races and road courses to add some potential back-and-forth in the standings. There’s a handful of teams who have a healthy head start via playoff points that would need disastrous outcomes in two of three races – which can happen – to miss making Round of 12 appearances. Below them are teams who are likely to make the cut but, more importantly, have more advantageous races ahead of them. Then there’s the clump on bubble watch who really can’t afford big mistakes or mishaps – especially those who struggle at Bristol.
All But Locked In
- Kyle Larson
- Christopher Bell
- William Byron
Stay Clean & Advance
- Tyler Reddick
- Chase Elliott
- Ryan Blaney
- Denny Hamlin
Bubble Watch Candidates
- Brad Keselowski
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Joey Logano
- Ty Gibbs
- Alex Bowman
- Chase Briscoe
KO’ed At Bristol?
- Daniel Suarez
- Austin Cindric
Plan A: Win At Atlanta
- Harrison Burton
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