Opening Day is in the books and what a ride Thursday’s 4:00 window was. The excitement and the sweats that came with it force me to remind myself that we’re only 12 wagers into a 400-600 wager season! With yesterday afternoon’s pair of rescheduled games wrapping up unfinished business, the MLB Morning Breakdown for 3-30-2024 takes us to Cincinnati for the middle game of their opening set with the Nationals. Then we’ll hit Camden Yards for Baltimore’s encore against the Angels – the site of another lopsided Opening Day outcome in favor of the home team. Have a Happy Easter and we’ll be back to take a crack at Monday’s slate. BOL!
WASHINGTON NATIONALS @ CINCINNATI REDS (CIN -160, 9.5)
Opening Day couldn’t have gone much better for the Cincinnati Reds considering the frustrating roster losses leading into the regular season. Granted, the door is a little more open for the Nationals this afternoon compared to the opener. Frankie Montas dominated with 6.0 innings of relentless off-balance stuff – a throwback to his come-up years in Oakland. The betting line is similar to Opening Day’s prices, but the context is different with warmer temps and a stiffer wind out to center/left-center. Tack on the hook to the game total for that and the starting pitcher profiles.
P Corbin (L) vs. H Greene (R)
My gap between Reds’ starter Hunter Greene and the Nats’ Patrick Corbin is very similar to Montas/Gray from game one. That seems to align with the market price between the games as well. One key area where Greene should struggle to match Montas’ Opening Day performance is length of start. Grinding through a full 5 innings is a tough ask for the 24-year-old, let alone 5+ innings. Hunter has shown to be a slow starter and did not register a full 5 in Spring Training.
One thing that Hunter Greene improved in camp was avoiding the long ball. And there is something to be said about that in the Arizona climate. So I am comfortable putting the young righty in the low-to-mid 4.00s range for this contest. Shaking off last season’s .339 BABIP while keeping a grip on his swing-and-miss slider is obviously essential this year. I did not budge the Nats’ hitting profile against right-handed pitching much from the 2023 season, giving Greene a reasonable chance to let the Reds offense give him a lead this afternoon. Left-handed offseason additions Joey Gallo and Jesse Winker do not lift the lineup much at all. Famous last words, right? I would say the same about Eddie Rosario, though his late-inning 2-run homer on Thursday says otherwise – for now, at least.
Any New Tricks For the Old Dog?
The maligned Patrick Corbin also faded the home run for the most part this spring. But he yielded 2+ runs in all but one start and has the rough distinction of starting the last few seasons out in an accommodating fashion to opposing hitters. That’s why the 34-year-old is tagged as a 5.00+, high-BABIP pitcher at this point in time. He pitches to hard contact (40%+ last 4 seasons) and has lost much of his strikeout capability since Washington’s 2019 World Series Championship season.
Despite not having prolific right-handed hitter Matt McLain, Cincinnati’s lineup still packs a punch against southpaws. CES, Jeimer Candelario, and Spencer Steer are mainstays though David Bell probably leaves the likes of Jake Fraley and Opening Day hero Nick Martini on the bench for pinch hit duties. That puts the ball in the court of recent acquisition Santiago Espinal and/or Stuart Fairchild as likely starters. The latter surged in Spring Training, leaving high expectations for his season debut. Even without McLain I rate the Reds better in several offensive categories against lefties than righties. Bullpen parity via full availability calls for an edge to the better lineup.
WAGER: Reds -1 -115
Over 9.5 runs is certainly in play, although dialing in on the Reds over 4.5 runs might be a better alternative. I’m not on either the game or team total route today though. It might be a little early in the season to get too cute with my positions but the approach to today’s contest is backing the Reds on the -1 run line, laying -115 instead of -160 to win without any strings attached. This is chalky and unbiased by my fandom (which usually moves me away from Cincy).
LOS ANGELES ANGELS @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES (BAL -160, 8.5)
Cool temps didn’t squash the Orioles’ scoring barrage on Opening Day, though the starting pitcher scenario may have something to say about that this afternoon. Baltimore loses their beneficial split against lefties while facing the right-handed Griffin Canning. It ushers in more parity between lineups – in theory, anyhow. The O’s still trot out dangerous hitters Cedric Mullins, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and platoon bat Ryan O’Hearn who thrive against righties. I’m still about 5% higher on Baltimore’s effectiveness in this split than with L.A.’s. Plus the Birds keep their bullpen advantage with both clubs getting a day of rest.
G. Canning (R) vs. G Rodriguez (R)
The -160ish price also accounts for an edge to 24-year-old Grayson Rodriguez over Griffin Canning. To his credit, Canning broke out last season to a degree in both workload (22 starts, 127.0 IP) and effectiveness (4.32 ERA, 4.29 FIP/3.82 xFIP). There is plenty to like with his increased strikeout and ground ball rates, though greater innings could have been part of his hard contact rise. But this is start #1 in the 2024 season and Canning is relatively fresh. Mixed results prior to breaking camp combined with a decent start to the 2023 season keep his expectations in the low 4.00s today.
Grayson Rodriguez did nothing in camp (5 ER, 14.2 IP) to sway expectations for a sub-4.00 season. Decent Spring Training form bodes well for a 5-inning floor against a lineup that I’m probably slightly too high on this year. This half-run edge over Canning is just another building block that leads towards a meaty price on the favorite. Lineup, splits, starting pitcher, bullpen, and defense all point toward laying the lumber.
WAGER: Orioles Double Result +130 (0.4u)
WAGER: Orioles -1 -124 (win 0.6u)
More chalk, anyone? I get it. With the Opening Day blowout fresh in everyone’s mind, backing the Orioles either sounds like a no-brainer or fool’s gold. My modest outlook for Baltimore over the 2023 season keeps expectations in check – so I don’t feel like this is an overreaction on my part. We’ll reach for yield with a split position; part on a double result if a healthy plus-money price can be found (mine is admittedly offshore) and the other part spent on a decisive victory in the form of the -1 alt line. That’s the ugly face of risk aversion already creeping in this season. Either way, Let’s Go O’s!
2024 Featured Handicap Results
| Wins | Losses | Net | ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-28-24 | 1 | 1 | -0.6u | -36.3% |
| 3-29-24 (rebooked) | 1 | 0 | +1.0u | +84.7% |
| SEASON | 2 | 1 | +0.4u | +14.3% |
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