PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
8-0
SEASON RESULTS:
64-39
Week 15 Recap:
Well it took 14 weeks, but we finally had a perfect sweep on Prop Corner notching eight straight wins on the extended Saturday/Sunday weekend slate. We played both Lions running backs with the yardage for David Montgomery and longest carry for Jahmyr Gibbs (on Twitter (X), and both hit with ease. On Sunday, we got lucky with one of early bets as we were fading Tua Tagovailoa’s yardage total, which stayed under, only because he sat the final two drives of the game with the Dolphins holding a 30 point advantage. It was nice to have some good fortune on our side for a change. We had Ezekiel Elliott with his pass yardage, and he was able to eclipse that in the absence of Rhamondre Stevenson. We closed things out with another pretty easy cover with Raven’s tight end Isaiah Likely besting his yardage total, and our Geno Smith bet was voided as he didn’t end up playing in the Monday Night Football contest. If you’ve followed along the last two weeks that’s a 14-1 streak we’re on. Certainly we’re due for some regression, but the bets feel pretty dialed in at the moment.
Week 16 Preview:
Another spaced out card this weekend for the NFL with games seemingly on every day during the Christmas weekend. For the first time this year, it’s worth questioning how focused each team will be heading into their ball games? With the holiday season here, and several teams now officially eliminated from the playoffs, are their edges to be found between the contenders and the bottom feeders? Once again, do we need to check the weather to figure out if there are advantages or disadvantages there? All of this goes into selecting this weeks player prop bets. We settled on five bets, with two of them surprisingly wagered in the matchup between the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots. Some lesser names than we’ve had on our radar for most of the season, but hopefully a productive slate to keep Prop Corner hot. Merry Christmas to you and yours!
Our Picks:
Javonte Williams – Under 56.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
There haven’t been a lot of Broncos featured in Prop Corner this year, but our first of two in week sixteen play off of what we feel could be the type of game script we’re going to see against the New England Patriots. Javonte Williams has gotten a nice increase of carries in the second half of the season as he’s worked his way back from injury this season. Even with a pretty substantial volume of work, Williams is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry and hasn’t averaged over 4 yards per carry since the middle of October. Playing the Patriots, it’s unlikely that average will improve as they are allowing barely over 3 yards per carry to opposing runners. Our logic here is pretty simple, the Patriots have shut down some of the higher performing running backs in the league, so they should be able to handle Williams in this game. Even with a modest total of 56.5 yards, we’re going to fade Williams here as we expect the Broncos to do their moving through the air.
Courtland Sutton – Over 49.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
The passing game of the Broncos hasn’t exactly lit things up in 2023, but the most consistent piece they’ve had of their passing puzzle is wide receiver Courtland Sutton. Sutton is pushing towards a 1,000 yard receiving season and his 58 targets are the most by any player on the Denver offense. His matchup against the Patriots will not be easy, as the Patriots are playing as well on defense as any team in the league. There is good reason to back him though with a receiving yardage total of only 49.5 yards. We use the term “only” since he’s gone over that mark in six straight games, and averaged 65 yards per game during that stretch. The main reason we like Sutton here is the same reason we didn’t like Javonte Williams. New England has been absolutely stellar at stopping the run. In order to move the ball, the Broncos are going to have to throw it. That means Sutton should get his usual production and then some. The weather will be cold in Denver, but winds are only expected to be in the 8-10 mph range, so it shouldn’t impact the passing games any more than normal. In a game that may have very few yards overall, Sutton will be one of the bigger producers.
D’Andre Swift – Over 65.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
The Eagles are in the midst of a three game losing streak, and the first two losses saw D’Andre Swift rush for only a combined 52 yards. He rebounded a bit last week and was able to rack up 74 yards on 18 carries against the Seahawks. When you dig into Swift’s yardage tallies, it’s a pretty familiar story. Swift and the Eagles have run the ball well against weaker defenses, and struggled against tougher defenses. The Giants certainly do not boast one of the better run defenses in the league, in fact they rank 27th overall, and 30th in yards per carry allowed at over 4.7. The Eagles hit rock bottom last week with a brutal loss, and this is a spot where they should absolutely rebound and take out some frustration on the rival Giants. Their offensive line has not played particularly well recently, and this will be an opportunity for them to assert themselves against an inferior opponent. We all know the Boston Scott TD rule against the New York Giants, and that could certainly continue. The bulk of the carries in the game should go to Swift however, and he has a legitimate at hitting the 100 yard mark for the first time since week number three. He may not feast quite that much, but he should be able to make it over the 65.5 mark he’s working against.
Joe Flacco – Over 251.5 Yards Passing (-115)
We joked a week ago that playing Joe Flacco yardage overs was not exactly something we anticipated doing at the start of this NFL season. Flacco cruised to his yardage over and we’re looking for a back-to-back cover for the veteran signal caller on Sunday. He faces the Texans in one of the most important AFC contests of the weekend. The Browns are going to need another good performance from Flacco to continue their winning streak as it will be a tough task to run against the Texans defense. Houston is allowing just 3.4 yards per carry versus the rush, which is second in the league behind only the Patriots. That means the Browns are going to need to throw to move the ball, and Flacco is more than capable of once again going over his total. In his three starts as Browns QB he has thrown for 254, 311, and 374 yards, respectively. If you don’t want to do the math on your own, that’s an average of over 310 yards per game through the air. To make things a little easier on Flacco, he won’t have to face rookie edge rusher Will Anderson, Jr. who has been ruled out with injury. Put everything together, and that means we’re betting on Flacco to continue his solid play in what will hopefully result in a second straight prop bet cover.
Trenton Irwin – Over 15.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
In this weekend’s installment of who the heck is this guy, we’re keyed in on Bengals wideout Trenton Irwin. For a team that boasts arguably the top trio in the league with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, it’s understandable if you’re not overly familiar with Irwin. Irwin will be filling in for the injured Chase when the Bengals face the rival Steelers, and we’re going to bank on him snagging a few passes and topping a meager 15.5 yard total. Our reasoning here dates back to historical data from when Irwin had an opportunity earlier in the season when Tee Higgins was out with his injuries. During that stretch Irwin put up yardage totals of 60, 24 and 54 yards, respectively. That was of course with Joe Burrow playing QB, but Jake Browning has proven more than capable of getting the ball to his wide receivers since he’s stepped in. The Steelers have not been great at defending receivers lined up wide, which is where Irwin will be positioned when he’s in the game. Add in the fact Pittsburgh with be without Pro Bowl safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and Irwin has a great opportunity to make some plays. If you need even more ammunition to bet on Irwin, even when he’s shared the field with the Bengals big three receivers, he’s still grabbed a pair of 25 yard passes in each of the last two games. Irwin is a sneaky play that has a great chance of hitting in the Saturday special.
