Previous Week Plays – 4-5
Season Record – 25-23-1
Week 10 Recap:
A loaded up week 10 with nine wagers for us didn’t work out in our favor as we ended up sub .500 at 4-5 on the weekend. It was a tight week overall with the exception of a pretty big miss that cost us a double-loss in the Bengals and Texans game. We had the game total under as well as the Bengals teased with the Ravens. That teaser ended up busting on both sides, but the under looked as though it might hold up, until the Texans inexplicably tossed a pick six when they should have been in run out the clock mode. We also lost the first half under bet we had with the Steelers and Packers, who stalled out in the second half rather than the first. Of course the one over that we took was the game that stayed under as the Titans offense was unable to generate anything running or throwing. And our other loss had a chance to cover, as we just needed a Falcons two-point conversion, but alas, they didn’t convert. We did get the cover against the spread with the Steelers over the Packers, as well as cruising to a victory with the 49ers spread. And we accurately played the Cowboys first half spread and full game spread as they dominated the depleted Giants from the opening kickoff. A lot of work went into giving back a little cash, but that’s all part of sports betting. On to the next week of fun.
Week 11 Picks:
We’ve scaled it back to just four bets for week 11, that are spread with two team totals, one game against the spread, and a teaser bet. After losing our teaser bets for three weeks in a row, the initial plan was to pause, however the matchup just seemed to fit too perfectly to pass up. If you’ve followed the BetCrushers this season, you’ll notice we’ve got a couple of familiar bets that you’ve seen throughout this part of the season a few times. No reason not to go back to the well if it’s still producing, right? Have a great weekend and good luck with your plays!
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
vs. 
Tennessee Titans (3-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3)
Sunday November 19th
1:00pm
EverBank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 (-115)
Over/Under 39.5 (-110)
The AFC South looked as though it would be a race between the Titans and Jaguars when the 2023 season began. The Texans and Colts have muddied up the waters a bit, forcing the Titans down in the pecking order of the division. The Jaguars are looking to bounce back after being throttled by the 49ers a week ago, while the Titans hope to recapture some of the early Will Levis magic that escaped them in their game with the Buccaneers.
The Titans offense stalled out after a hot start behind rookie Will Levis and they’ll look to get back on track against a Jaguars defense they’ve played well against in recent years. That won’t be easy as the Jaguars will be anxious to regain their bully status at home after being embarrassed by the 49ers. It also won’t be easy because it may be difficult for running back Derrick Henry to get the running game going for Tennessee. The Jaguars allow just over 3.8 yards per carry to opposing runners, and have a clear advantage in the trenches against the Titans offensive line. We witnessed first hand how difficult things were for Levis and the offense last week with their inability to get Henry and the ground game going. Henry does has a history of success against the Jags, but this is a different offensive line for the Titans, and a different defense for the Jaguars. The Titans tackles will have their hands full with pass rushing specialist Josh Allen and Travon Walker who is starting to look more like the top pick in the draft the Jags hoped they’d have when they selected him. The Titans do get a bit of a break with Tyson Campbell out for the game, so DeAndre Hopkins could find some success if Levis has time to get him the ball. Realistically, we should see the Titans offense somewhere between what we saw in Levis first start and his last one. If we’re approaching things this way, we’re betting on things looking a little closer to what we saw one week ago from Tennessee.
On the offensive side of the ball for the Jaguars, things have not been all rainbows and unicorns either. Despite having a solid offensive line and what appears to be one of the best skill position groups in the league, somehow they just can’t generate a lot of consistent offense or explosive plays. When you start looking at the offense, it’s actually not extremely difficult to figure out when the Jaguars have struggled. Trevor Lawrence is ranked as the #34 quarterback when faced with pressure this season. In case you forgot, there are only 32 teams in the league, which tells you all you need to know. It has to be concerning for the Jags organization that Lawrence continues to struggle this much against pressure at this point in his career. Fortunately for this week, that shouldn’t be a huge issue because the Titans are not particularly good at producing pressure on opposing quarterbacks. When Lawrence has had time in the pocket he’s been much better, so unless the Titans can somehow get to him, it should be a nice day for the passing game. That could include wideout Calvin Ridley who has had large spurts of basic invisibility in the offense. With multiple weapons, it’s fine to spread the ball around, but not being able to get Ridley involved in the game plan is also a little concerning. This could be a nice spot for Ridley to get going. Travis Etienne, Jr. continues to pace the offense, and even though the Titans are pretty sound in their run defense, he could still be a factor, perhaps later in the game once the passing attack has loosened things up defensively.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Jaguars are 7-3 straight up in their last 10 home games
The larger sample size between these two familiar teams would steer you in the direction of the Tennessee Titans, especially grabbing near a touchdown worth of points. After all, Mike Vrabel is going to have his team ready to play in a divisional game, right? When you look at the more recent sample size, you’ll find the Titans struggle against good teams, and this matchup is just really tough for them in the trenches. The initial “spark” provided from Will Levis has now fizzled out a bit, and while it’s still the right move for the Titans to play the rookie, he’s facing an underrated defense on the road. Not only that, this defense was embarrassed a bit last week with their home crowd watching. This game may stay close for a little bit, but there just seems to be too much going for Jacksonville in this spot. We’re backing them here against the spread, and we’ll be featuring them as our teaser leg at the bottom of this article as well.
BetCrushers Take: Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5
Jaguars 26, Titans 17
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins
vs. 
Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) vs. Miami Dolphins (6-3)
Sunday November 19th
1:00pm
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Miami Dolphins -13.5 (-115)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
The Miami Dolphins had about as good of a resting bye week as a team can have as all three teams in their division lost last weekend while they kicked their feet up. Additionally, they watched key teams and players in the conference suffer through critical injuries that line things up nicely for them heading down the stretch. They enter Sunday as heavy favorites against a rejuvenated Raiders team behind interim head coach Antonio Pierce. The Raiders are playing with new life and energy, but face a tough road matchup against the high flying Dolphins.
Antonio Pierce wants to build his offense around running back Josh Jacobs, and he’s been rewarded with Jacob’s hardest running of the season over the last two weeks. If the Raiders want to pull off a massive upset against Miami, Jacobs is going to have to run like the player we watched a season ago to keep the Dolphins offense on the sidelines. That will be easier said than done as the Dolphins defense has slowly improved under Vic Fangio, and has tightened up against the run after a slow start to the season. Knowing they’ll need to score points, one of two things is likely to happen with rookie quarterback Aiden O’Connell. The youngster will either play loose and free, and potentially make this a shootout, or he’ll let the moment consume him, and this game could get out of hand, as the spread would suggest. Part of the battle for the Raiders in this game is the Dolphins are getting healthy at the right time, specifically in the secondary. The Raiders can normally have an advantage because of their deep receiving talent, but the Dolphins have enough with Jalen Ramsey in the fold to match up with Davante Adams and the rest of the receiving threats. At home, Miami has also generated a lot of pressure so O’Connell could be under heavy durress for much of the game. This game plan for Vegas has to be simple. Run the ball effectively, be aggressive, and don’t settle for field goals.
Things are shaping up nicely for the Dolphins on offense when you breakdown what might happen in this game. For starters, the game plan has the luxury of some additional time in the oven, which almost seems unfair for one that seems to roll out some creative almost unstoppable plays each week. The Dolphins also will be welcoming back Devon Achane in the running game, which just makes their scheme that much tougher to defend. And of course we have to add in the fact of the Raiders not being great at stopping the run, or having a lock down type secondary. As we’ve stated before, the Raiders defense often looks like Maxx Crosby and some random guys running around trying to make a tackle. Speaking of the Dolphins defense getting healthier, their offensive line is trending in the same direction. So how do the Raiders try to slow down the Dolphins dynamic offense? Your guess is as good as ours. It feels like somehow the Raiders just need to take some chances on defense in hopes they can force some turnovers or negative plays. It’s unlikely, but Las Vegas simply doesn’t have the horses to keep up with what Miami is going to bring to the game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Raiders are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Dolphins are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games
– The total has gone over in the last 8 games between the Raiders and Dolphins
This line starting creeping up the minute it was posted, despite the fact the Raiders look like a brand new team since the firing of previous head coach Josh McDaniels. In the NFL there’s never a sure thing, but this game seems to be about as sure of a thing as we’ll find during the regular season. A rookie quarterback on the road with a bad defense, against a team fresh off of a bye that has beaten bad teams to a pulp. Despite the Raiders record, they are definitely not a very good football team compared to the top squads in the league. To be honest, the Dolphins probably cover any spread under two touchdowns against teams that aren’t very good at home and they likely will here. We’re going to ride their team total though. They’re averaging over 37 points per game, and they’re at home, off of a bye, against a bad defense. In what world would we not want to bet them to score 31 points? No guarantee this bet hits, but we’d bet it 100 times out of 100.
BetCrushers Take: Miami Dolphins – Team Total – Over 30.5
Dolphins 38, Raiders 21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers
vs. 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (6-3)
Sunday November 19th
4:05pm
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco 49ers -12 (-110)
Over/Under 42 (-110)
Anyone who doubted the San Francisco 49ers as a legitimate threat in the NFC after their three straight losses received a dose of reality after they stomped out the Jaguars on their home field in week 10. San Francisco returns home to take on the pesky Buccaneers, a team that is right in the thcik of things in the NFC South and still fighting each week. The oddsmakers believe this is an easy win for the 49ers in Santa Clara, but the Buccaneers have proven they aren’t a team anyone should just look past.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield has seemingly gained the respect of his teammates as the leader of the Buccaneers offense, and we’ve seen some pretty nice things out of the veteran this season. Most notably, he’s gotten the ball to WR Mike Evans, which he’ll have to do again this week to take down the 49ers. If there’s a concerning piece to what Mayfield and this offense are doing, it’s that they can’t seem to get the other receiving weapons involved in the passing game. Chris Godwin has not been very effective, particularly of late, and no one else has really emerged as a big receiving threat. The 49ers defense is most vulnerable when they can be attacked with multiple receiving weapons, as their cornerback depth is one of the weaker pieces of their team. Expect to see a lot of Charvarius Ward matched up with Evans when they’re not playing zone. Where can the offense come from if they take Mike Evans out of the equation? Tampa continues to struggle running the football, as their offensive line still ranks in the bottom third in run-blocking, and Rachaad White can’t really get much going, despite a hefty volume of carries. White has become an increasing piece in the passing game, and when he’s in space has looked pretty good. Expect Tampa to try to work that angle again this week, however when you’re working that against the linebackers of the 49ers and their athletic safeties, there is little guarantee that’s going to be effective. The Bucs may be able to slow down the edge rushers of the Niners, at least a bit, but they will struggle in the interior. Their IOL have been pushed around by good interior defenders, and the rotation of Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw should have their way with them. As one of the shorter quarterbacks in the league, can Mayfield work with pressure in his face?
And just like that 49ers Brock Purdy is back to being the captain of this offensive ship for the 49ers. It’s amazing how much having an All-Pro left tackle, and the versatility of Deebo Samuel back in the lineup can do for an offense. San Francisco looked strong against a very good Jaguars defense, and they shouldn’t have to work quite so hard to have similar success against the Buccaneers. Running back Christian McCaffrey was finally held out of the end zone despite the team’s efforts to get him in late in the game a week ago, but he very well could start a new streak on Sunday. The Bucs defense is strong on the interior especially when Vita Vea is in the lineup, but look for a lot of outside runs and pass catching from McCaffrey in this game. As much as we know McCaffrey will be the featured player, this is actually a game where the receivers and tight end George Kittle could shine. The Buccaneers top corner Carlton Davis is nicked up a bit, and their depth beyond him is flat out not very good. If Tampa is too concerned with limiting McCaffrey they’ll find out the hard way what makes this Niners offense so difficult to stop with the likes of Brandon Auyik and George Kittle. We’ve seen Brock Purdy do a nice job of taking care of the football, and as long as he and his teammates do that against Tampa, they should be in pretty good shape to come away with a home win.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Buccaneers are 6-3 ATS this season
– The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The 49ers are 11-1 straight up in their last 12 home games
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games vs. the Buccaneers and 49ers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a real shot at winning the NFC South and are legitimate playoff contenders. This is a game however we’re we are going to see how they’re not realistic contenders to play in the Super Bowl. Even though Tampa has been feisty all season and played in a lot of close games, this one is likely to get out of hand. Brock Purdy is going to be balling again, and the Niners defense is going to get back to looking like the dominant unit that they truly are. Much like in the Dolphins game though, we’re going to go with the team total for San Francisco. This team was on a roll of scoring at least 30 points a game when healthy, and in a home matchup at full strength, getting them just needing 27 points is a bargain. As long as the Bucs can get a few points on the board, the Niners should hit at least 30 in this matchup and win pretty handily.
BetCrushers Take: San Francisco 49ers – Team Total – Over 26.5
49ers 31, Buccaneers 17
Teaser Bet
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Chicago Bears (3-7) vs. Detroit Lions (7-2)
Sunday November 19th
1:00pm
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Detroit Lions -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
Tennessee Titans (3-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3)
Sunday November 19th
1:00pm
Everbank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 39.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Lions -1.5 and Jaguars -.5
Teasers have not been kind to us over the past three weeks but we’re giving another one a shot this weekend with a pair of home favorites at the correct numbers. You read our thoughts on the Jaguars above, and if we like them to win by more than a touchdown, there’s little reason not to like them simply needing to win. Our other matchup pits the new and improved Lions in a game a team on the rise has to win against a divisional opponent, who will have their starting quarterback back in the lineup for the Bears.
For our breakdown on the Jaguars and Titans see above. In the NFC North, the Bears and Lions play a game that has some importance for each team for different reasons. The Lions are jockeying for playoff positioning and want to continue to prove they can win the games they should win as a favorite. The Bears are starting quarterback Justin Fields, and that could be big for the QB and the team in regards to their future plans together or apart. It’s hard to know exactly what we’ll see from Fields after some time off, but you can bet he’ll be playing hard, which means a lot of running. The Lions have been one of the most improved teams at stopping traditional running, but they’ll have to contain Fields. That containment is equally important in their secondary as Fields will use his scrambling to generate some big plays. The Bears offensive line continues to play better than expected, but their interior in particular will be tested against Detroit. As much as the focus will be on Fields, the Bears weapons will need to make some plays to keep up with Detroit on the scoreboard. D.J. Moore was brought over to help Fields in situations like this one. Can he provide the spark we’ve really only seen once this season in this tough road game? Will someone like Cole Kmet or Darnell Mooney be able to contribute? They’ll certainly need to because the Lions score points at home, and Jared Goff is playing as well as anyone inside of Ford Field. He’ll need to stay hot because the Bears have been surprisingly strong at stopping the run. It’s going to be physical in this aspect of the game as you know the Lions are going to try to establish David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs regardless of how well the Bears run defense will play. If the Bears can hold up in this strength versus strength matchup, they’ll have a shot to stay in this game. If the Lions can run it on them, this game will get out of hand. As crazy as it sounds, this game needs to stay low-scoring for the Bears to pull off the upset.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Jaguars are 7-3 straight up in their last 10 home games
– The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Lions
– The Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games
As is the usual teaser breakdown, we’ve got the favorites below the key numbers of three playing against lesser opponents. They’re each at home with a lot to play for and should be able to beat their divisional rivals. In the case of the Jaguars, we’re not expecting the Titans to make the game too interesting when it’s all said and done. The Bears feel a little trickier with the re-emergence of Justin Fields, but it’s not as though Fields has an amazing win and loss record. Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence will be the more experienced and more stable players in this game, and the two better defenses at home should get this one to the pay window.
