Previous Week Plays – 2-4
Season Record – 16-10
Week 6 Recap:
Well, we knew it was coming at some point, we just hoped that we might be able to fend it off for a little while longer. We had our first under .500 losing weekend of plays for the season. It was a combination of close wins, close losses, and one very surprising whiff. Ironically, the way things played out for week number six, both the public and the “sharps” took some hits on the weekend. The books had been kind of generous, relatively speaking up to this point, so a week like this was bound to happen overall. Our first bet was the 49ers team total over 22.5, which looked like it was going to be an easy cover as they marched down the field for seven early in the first quarter. Unfortunately, the combination of injuries to their top three offensive players, and a stingy Browns defense, along with some bad mistakes and missed field goals stymied any shot of this. Our second selection on the over in the Bears and Vikings game never really threatened as there were also missed field goals and mistakes in this one. In a weekend where only two games went over the total, this one wasn’t really close. After a pair of three and outs for the Miami Dolphins, there was a minor panic with the Dolphins team total over. However, once they woke up, Miami once again scored with ease and got us a third quarter cover. We had two plays in the Saints and Texans game, and split them, as the under held up once again for the Saints, however the Texans got the win, which we didn’t think would be the case. Our biggest dud was taking the Buffalo Bills team total, where we expected easy disposal of the New York Giants. In a week with big upsets, the Bills managed to sneak away with the victory, but only mustered two touchdowns after a shutout first half. It was definitely a bit of a weird weekend in the NFL, things should flatten out a bit, maybe?
Week 7 Picks:
If you’re one of those people who only believes in CLV (closing line value), our article this week is definitely not going to be for you. You’ll pick up on the fact we’ve got a couple of wagers listed here that are available presently, that are not the best numbers that were available previously. Publishing plays later in the week can sometimes lead to this challenge, and often keeps us from being able to talk about things we actually did play earlier in the week. Even with some stale numbers, we’re still liking what we’ve come up with listed below, and think we’ll get back on a winning path as we near the halfway point of the season. We ended up with a total of 6 bets this week, with 2 in the Chiefs and Chargers contest. We’re back with a teaser bet for the first time since week four, and have three games against the spread, our highest bet of that fashion this year. Best of luck to you with all of your wagers!
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
vs. 
Atlanta Falcons (3-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3)
Sunday October 22nd
1:00pm
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 37.5 (-110)
Some NFL pundits had the Falcons competing for first place in the NFC South, however not too many people were giving the Baker Mayfield led Buccaneers a realistic shot at winning the division. The season is still young, and the Buccaneers are aiming to take the early lead as they play host to the Falcons in a quietly important early game on Sunday. These teams have some similarities, and we could see the better performing quarterback’s team come out as the winner in this contest.
There have been both some encouraging and discouraging signs for the Atlanta Falcons offense thus far into the season. They’ll put that offense to the test against the Buccaneers in a game that looks pretty even by and large. In fact, the Falcons and Bucs are inches apart in offensive and defensive EPA, which basically means they’re pretty evenly matched. That could be slightly misleading though when you really dive into the specific matchups of this game. It’s no secret the Falcons offensive identity is based on a combination of power running, and creative running and short-passing. The Buccaneers are still pretty good in stopping that kind of attack. It’s worth mentioning DT Vita Vea is questionable to play, and if there’s ever a game where Tampa needs him it would be this one. The Bucs need to make Desmond Ridder throw the football, plain and simple. Ridder has done a better job pushing the ball down the field the previous couple of weeks, but that’s also come with some mistakes and turnovers. The biggest weakness on the Tampa defense is the depth and talent in the secondary. Fortunately, they won’t be too tested with the trio of Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Mack Hollins still largely unproductive. As is often the case, look to the trenches when Atlanta is on offense to determine how successful they’re going to be. If they can crank the running game up, they’ll get the points they would need to pull of the upset. If The Buccaneers can slow down Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, it’s going to put a lot of pressure on Ridder and the offense.
Pressure is not necessarily something Buccaneer quarterback Baker Mayfield is going to have to worry about on his end, as the Falcons have been one of the worst teams at generating sacks and pressures. That’s important to note, as the key to Tampa’s success is getting the ball to their talented receivers. We’ve all witnessed a revitalization of Baker Mayfield, yet it’s ok to be a little skeptical still based on what we’ve seen throughout his history. Will Mayfield be able to continue his serviceable play, or will their be a regression as we’ve seen in previous years? It feels like being healthy is one of the primary drivers in his solid production and he enters this game relatively healthy. With his ability to move around in the pocket and even scramble, he should find some continued success against the Falcons defense. Mayfield does need to be be sharp though, as Atlanta hasn’t allowed a lot of big plays in the passing game. With a revamped secondary, the battle on this side of the ball is less in the trenches and more with the Bucs skill players versus the secondary of the Falcons. The weakness of the Atlanta defense is really the linebacking corp. They’re not a terrible group, but they’re also not great, especially in coverage. Tampa needs to really make this a Chris Godwin focal game with him heavily involved with the short to intermediate passing routes. If Godwin has a big game, that will be a great sign for Tampa.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
There’s an old theory in betting the NFL dating back decades ago that says if a spread is sitting at 2.5 points you always take the underdog. We don’t have the exact winning percentages handy, but in simple terms, the favorites did not cover at a fairly alarming rate. This would make sense as Vegas would likely see a lot of bets coming in on the favorite at that total. Well, we’re throwing all the rules out the window this week as we’re backing the upstart Tampa Bay Buccaneers to grab ahold of the NFC South against the Falcons. Sure, this game is probably going to be close, as the spread would indicate, but we’ve got to take a chance backing the home team that has their quarterback playing better football. If the Bucs can slow down the Falcons ground attack, they should have a good chance to hold the Falcons down on the scoreboard and potentially win the turnover battle. With that as a realistic opportunity, we’ll side with Tampa here and hope they can squeeze out that victory by a field goal.
BetCrushers Take: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
Buccaneers 22, Falcons 17
Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts
vs. 
Cleveland Browns (3-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (3-3)
Sunday October 22nd
1:00pm
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Cleveland Browns -3 (-110)
Over/Under 41 (-110)
The Indianapolis Colts will be riding Minshew Mania for the foreseeable future, yet believe they can still compete in the crowded AFC playoff picture. They have an important game against another team fighting in the conference when they welcome the Cleveland Browns to Lucas Oil Stadium. Cleveland is hoping to use a big upset win versus the San Francisco 49ers as a catapult to their season and will try to avoid a let down on the road. The biggest question heading into this ballgame is who will be playing quarterback for the Browns at kickoff?
The handicap for the Browns offense this Sunday is still up in the air as we don’t know if Deshaun Watson will be back as the starter or if we’ll see P.J. Walker again? To be honest, after just a week of watching Walker, it’s fair to say there isn’t a huge difference in the team’s ability either way. What we do know about the Browns, is they want to control the line of scrimmage with their offensive line. Joel Bitonio is back to anchor the middle, which is good news against DeForest Buckner and the Colts defensive line. Indy was dealt a bit of a blow though as DT Grover Stewart was suspended which will weaken the rotation on their interior. In attempting to replace the production of Nick Chubb, Cleveland needs all the help they can get. Kareem Hunt started to see the field more a week ago in his return to the roster, however he’s a little banged up and questionable for this game. Regardless of whether Watson or Walker is playing quarterback, the Browns offense needs some help from the running game, whether that’s Hunt or Jerome Ford. When they do throw, they’re going to have to hit some big plays, as the Colts defense is susceptible to them. Amari Cooper has been pretty steady this year even with poor quarterback play, and he should shine in this matchup. At some point, can Elijah Moore, David Njoku or someone else step up in the receiver role?
Sometimes there can be some subtraction by addition, and the Indianapolis Colts might be living that right now. The team is trying to work Jonathan Taylor back into the running back mix, which in turn is putting the guy who was carrying their offense on the bench. Much like the Watson/Walker discussion, it’s pretty irrelevant whether we see more of Taylor or Zack Moss against the Browns defense. They’ve been really stingy across the board, including allowing less than three and a half yards per carry. Gardner Minshew has proven to be a nice quarterback in the league, but this is a really tall task in facing the Browns pass rush and defense. Cleveland’s pass defense leads the league in pretty much every meaningful category, and the weapons of the Colts aren’t going to strike a whole of fear into anyone. Michael Pittman, Jr. will snag some passes, and Josh Downs looks like he could develop into a solid player in the league, but the Browns have shut down better players already this season. Indy is not only going to need a great game plan and execution, but they’re going to need some rushing from Gardner Minshew to move the chains. The most interesting one-on-one matchup on this side is Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett versus left tackle Bernard Raimann. Iron sharpens iron, and both need to win in order to help their respective team win.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Browns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the Colts
– The total has gone under in 9 of the last 12 games for the Browns
– The Colts are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 home games
Here is one of the bad numbers we’re playing that we mentioned at the beginning of the article. Cleveland was available at -2 when the line first opened, and that disappeared rather quickly. Even though that’s where we’re playing the number, we’re going on record with a -3 play still, as even with a not great offense we expect the Browns to get things done. There’s a discrepancy in talent on these teams from top to bottom on the rosters, and certainly on the defensive side of the ball. The Browns offense is not good enough to make this game a true blowout, but they should get just enough production on that side of the ball, with some help from their defense to get a spread covered. We’re of course banking on the fact they aren’t in a pure letdown spot after their emotional upset from a week ago. Hopefully head coach Kevin Stefanski can have his team ready to play.
BetCrushers Take: Cleveland Browns -3
Browns 23, Colts 16
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
vs. 
Arizona Cardinals (1-5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (3-2)
Sunday October 22nd
4:05pm
Lumen Field – Seattle, WA
Seattle Seahawks -8 (-110)
Over/Under 44 (-110)
In just examining the records of the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks, there isn’t much of a surprise to most people on where they sit after six weeks of the season. However, there is a bit of a surprise in how these teams are playing, particularly the Cardinals, who have fought hard and given teams all they can handle despite their 1-5 mark. The Cardinals have to essentially accept the fact they’re playing spoilers already in the NFC West, but could absolutely do just that in what could be a very close football game despite the spread sitting at over a touchdown.
The offense in Arizona has far outperformed expectations from the start of the season, and that starts with quarterback Joshua Dobbs. He’ll be asked to do even more during the absence of veteran leader and starting running back James Conner. The Cardinals improved offense can be largely in line with improved play from their offensive line. A group that was horrendous a season ago has actually played much better so far this season. The Seahawks defensive line has still not been very good, with the exception of overwhelming a depleted New York Giants offensive line. Where the Seahawks have done well though, is slowing down opposing running backs, something struggled with in their own right a year ago. With Conner sidelined, it’s up to Keontay Ingram and Emari DeMercado to get the ground game going for Arizona and that is unlikely to happen. Dobbs has the ability to scramble, and he’s going to need to do that, especially with the Seahawks ramping up their blitzing packages with the return of Jamal Adams. More than that, Dobbs needs to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore in an effort to expose a Seahawks secondary that has struggled all year. The good news for Seattle is their secondary is the healthiest they’ve been this season, so improvement should be coming.
Seattle wasn’t able to put points on the board in Cincinnati, but that doesn’t mean they didn’t have some productivity. It really was poor red zone finishing that kept that from pulling off the upset on the road. Their production should be strong again this week, and you can expect the red zone inefficiencies to disappear as well against a Cardinals defense that isn’t great in red zone, or overall. Don’t mistake the feistiness of the Cardinals, and their quality offensive work for talent on the defensive side of the ball. Their defense ranks near the bottom of the league, and the team suffers from a severe lack of impact playmakers. Other than linebacker Dennis Gardeck, who has quietly become a bit of a force, there just isn’t a lot to be excited about on this defense. The Seahawks meanwhile have their starting left tackle back, and an offense that moves the ball fairly smoothly most of the time. Even with a banged up D.K. Metcalf, the Hawks receivers should feast against a Cardinals secondary that is going to be without three of their top four options. Geno Smith, who was very critical of himself after last week’s performance should be focused and ready to take advantage of the matchups against Arizona. We haven’t even gotten to running back Kenneth Walker III yet, who has been one of the more consistent backs in the league, and is line for a big workload in this one. With multiple ways to attack Arizona, the Seahawks should put a lot of points on the board as long as they take care of the football.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Seahawks
– The Cardinals are 0-6 straight up in their last 6 road games
– The Seahawks are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games
At some point you’d have to guess the Arizona Cardinals are going to kind of throw in the towel on their season. A trip to Seattle could be that spot, but at this point we’ve seen no indication of Arizona not putting up a fight if they’re on the field. We’re expecting the offense to continue with that effort, for at least a little while longer in the season. With the Cardinals forced to throw due to a predicted inability to run the ball, the game should lengthen, and yards should come in bigger bunches. After last week lending itself to under bettors, there should be a little bounceback for the over backers in week seven. This game is definitely a good candidate, and we have the total closer to the high 40’s for this one. Let’s see if we can get on the right side of the overs with two solid offenses and one really bad defense.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 44
Seahawks 28, Cardinals 20
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
vs. 
Los Angeles Chargers (2-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (5-1)
Sunday October 22nd
4:25pm
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
If the Dolphins and Eagles weren’t playing in prime time, the Chargers and Chiefs would probably be the best game of the week seven slate. These teams have played some really fun games since Justin Herbert arrived on the scene for the Chargers, with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs ultimately getting the better of them. For two teams that have been known for their offensive fireworks, this battle could be a little different than what many may expect. Can the Chiefs put some early distance between themselves and the rest of the division, or will the Chargers be able to take the first step towards closing the gap?
Things are getting a little contentious with the Chargers as Brandon Staley is facing increasing criticism after a slow start to the season. A win against the rival Chiefs would really quiet things down, but can the Chargers offense get into rhythm after a choppy beginning in 2023? In previous years you’d look at a matchup with the Chiefs as a great get-right spot for an offense, but the times they are a changin’ in Kansas City. No longer is this an explosive offense and porous defense as roles have reversed a bit in modern times. It’s the Chiefs defense that’s really been helping out Patrick Mahomes in the absence of a consistent wide receiver group. The Chargers offensive line will need to hold up against Chris Jones and the Chiefs defensive line, and perhaps more importantly, they need to get Austin Ekeler going. After missing four games, Ekeler returned and wasn’t a huge factor in the Chargers offense, and they need him to be a catalyst versus the Chiefs. Kansas City hasn’t been great stopping the run, so Brandon Staley needs to stay committed to running Ekeler, even if he doesn’t get off to a hot start. Justin Herbert will need to hit some big plays, something he hasn’t done as frequently so far this year as he has in his first seasons in the league. Not having Mike Williams makes that tougher, even though he hadn’t done much when he was in the lineup. At some point the Chargers are going to have to try to incorporate rookie Quentin Johnston into the game plan and see if he can be the piece needed to go along with Keenan Allen. Expect a lot of Allen in the slot as usual, as that will likely give him the best matchups versus man or zone coverage. With Trent McDuffie locking down one of the outside receivers, Allen could see targets in bunches even more than usual.
At some point the Kansas City Chiefs are going to need to find reliable WR1 if they want to get back to the Super Bowl. The Chargers cornerbacks are a good place to start in that search, as they have routinely been targeted all season. Kansas City will attempt to get running back Isaiah Pacheco the ball early to loosen things up, but the Chargers run defense has been quite improved from where it was at this time a year ago. That’s not to say Pacheco won’t have some success, the question is whether or not it will be enough to help give Mahomes that extra second in the pocket and the receivers an extra step to get open. Rashee Rice would seem like the most viable candidate with Justin Watson out, as it’s apparent Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore are simply just not going to be players that can be counted on week in and week out. After battling through injuries as he seemingly is always doing, Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack will take aim at the tackles of the Chiefs, and for LA to pull the upset they are going to have to get to Mahomes often. The Chiefs offense hasn’t played their best ball, yet they still find a way to makes plays when it matters. At some point that luck may run out though, right?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the Chiefs
– The Chargers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games
– The total has gone under in 7 of the last 10 games for the Chiefs
The jerseys look the same as they always do in a Chiefs and Chargers football game, but this one sure has a different vibe heading into it. There’s got to be a little desperation from the Chargers, while the Chiefs still feel like they’re trying to figure out who they are offensively. There should be some things we’re used to seeing between these two teams, like a close football game that comes down to the end. However, there might be some differences as we noted above, most likely a tougher time scoring points and moving the ball for these offenses. When you bet an under with teams like the Chiefs and Chargers, you have to be ok with it getting blown up early as a possibility. While that’s possible, the odds of that are less than this being a bit more of a defensive struggle. In simple terms, the world still hasn’t adjusted to the new feel “Chiefs” team in particular. Our favorite play in this game is the under. If you’re a savvy bettor you grabbed this when it opened at 51.5. That was hammered right away all the way down to 48. Much like what we talked about with the Browns, we’re still on it for the sake of this record at the 48 number. We’re also dipping here and taking the Chargers to keep this close, as they’ve done since Herbert arrived. Despite all we’ve listed out here, at the end of the day the Chiefs are beating LA by a field goal again, aren’t they?
BetCrushers Take: Los Angeles Chargers +5.5 / Total – Under 48
Chiefs 24, Chargers 20
Teaser Bet
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Buffalo Bills (4-2) vs. New England Patriots (1-5)
Sunday October 22nd
1:00pm
Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, MA
Buffalo Bills -8 (-110)
Over/Under 40 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals (1-5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (3-2)
Sunday 22nd
4:05pm
Lumen Field – Seattle, Wa
Seattle Seahawks -8 (-115)
Over/Under 44 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Bills -2 and Seahawks -2
The Buffalo Bills need to get their offense going against what looked to be a tough New England Patriots defense heading into the season. Injuries to key starters have made this unit vulnerable, especially with an offense that hasn’t sustained many drives. The Bills aren’t going to feel sorry for their AFC East rivals as they are missing four key starters on their defense as well. For reference to our thoughts for the second leg of our teaser, see the above breakdown of the Seahawks and Cardinals.
The biggest boom or bust offense of the season has to be the Buffalo Bills, at least through the first six weeks. They’ve completely shredded up three teams, and have looked completely frustrated versus three others. You can’t really point to competition fully, as the Giants defense should have been no match for Buffalo, but shut them out for a half before only allowing 14 tough points last week. The version we see against New England should be much better as much was made of the team’s lack of creativity and focus in that nail-biting win against NY. It helps that Josh Allen has absolutely owned the Patriots the last few years, going 6-1 against them, with the lone loss being that “wind” game on prime-time two seasons ago where Bill Belichick threw a total of three passes. In those games Allen has tossed 18 touchdowns compared to just one interception, and has mixed in some nice rushing performances as well. He’ll also get the Patriots without their top two pass rushers as Matthew Judon and Josh Uche will both miss the game, as well as a thin secondary that just brought J.C. Jackson back. Stefon Diggs will continue to get a lot of looks, but expect someone else to be a focal point for the Bills passing game as they desperately need a secondary weapon to step up for them. In this matchup, that could be anyone, but Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir seem like the likely suspects. Don’t expect a ton of running from the Bills, as New England has been been really strong stopping opposing runners. With a lack of a pass rush and weak secondary though, there isn’t a whole lot of reason for Buffalo to spend too much time trying to run.
Things have been downright ugly for the Patriots on offense all season, but believe it or not, there may be at least a little room for optimism against the Bills defense. That optimism would come in the form of New England possibly being able to establish a running game, something they haven’t really done all season. The Bills will be without both of their starting defensive tackles, and of course All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano, which means the Patriots should be able to push the pocket up at least a little bit up the middle. Part of the struggles of quarterback Mac Jones have been a result of teams coming right after him without fearing the ground game. If Rhamondre Stevenson can have a breakout performance, with some help from Ezekiel Elliott, it would obviously help Jones out quite a bit. New England has to keep the Bills honest, as their pass rushers have been dominant on the edges. With their offensive line banged up, the Pats can’t just have Jones in obvious passing situations all day, or this game could get away from them much like some of the others have the past few weeks.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the Patriots
– The Patriots are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games
– The Patriots are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games
– The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Seahawks
– The Cardinals are 0-6 straight up in their last 6 road games
– The Seahawks are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games
You already saw our feelings on the Seahawks and Cardinals, and they’re fairly similar between the Bills and Patriots. Bill Belichick isn’t going down without a fight, so you know he’ll do everything he can to try to bring competitiveness back to his team. The simple fact of the matter is his team is just simply too undermanned with their injuries against a team he’s struggled to beat since Josh Allen’s arrival. Unless the Patriots can force a slew of turnovers and run for 200 yards, it’s hard to see them finding a path to victory. The weather is supposed to be windy, which would certainly help, but not windy enough to repeat a three pass attempt effort from Mac Jones. Chances are these game stays closer than a lot of people think, but it’s not impossible that this one could get away from the Patriots if they fall behind early. We’re dealing with two superior teams as 8 point favorites against teams that each have only one win on the season. Getting both below a field goal just seems like a bet we have to take a shot with.
