At this point, our features gladly welcomed some 8th inning heroics to get a much-needed win. Baltimore’s failure to produce in the 6th & 7th innings with multiple runners on base went by the wayside when Ryan O’Hearn picked up the slack in a major way. Still plenty of work to get these featured handicaps back on the tracks, so we look to an ugly solo shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-21-2023. BOL with this meaty Sunday slate…I know I’ll need it with a six tickets in hand!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
BOSTON RED SOX @ SAN DIEGO PADRES (SDP -140, 9)
If momentum means anything to you, this is your game. Boston’s four-game win streak is on the line in the final meeting of this series in San Diego. Their host has been on a massive slide, dropping nine of their last ten games – with the sole victory coming at the hands of the lowly Kansas City Royals. The dog is undoubtedly barking for momentum bettors. Handicapping this game on its own merits comes to a similar conclusion, albeit a little more muted than playing the hot team vs. cold team angle. The resistance comes in the form of pitching.
C Kluber (R) vs. M Wacha (R)
If I would sum up chapter five of Corey Kluber’s MLB career – not counting his “season” in Texas – it would start with things could certainly be going better. The 37-year-old righty has scuffled his way to a 2-5 record with a 6.41 ERA and 6.63 FIP/5.47 xFIP. A 5.04 SIERA puts him more in line with pre-season expectations around the 5.00 mark though. Regardless, Kluber has been anything but a bet-on starting pitcher this season. You can chalk up his troubles to a career-low 30.7% ground ball, inflated 18.0% HR/FB, and brutal 10.9% barrel rates. Decent weather with a breeze out to right will not help the veteran today.
31-year-old Michael Wacha is having a resurgent season when compared to his counterpart. A 4.06 ERA and 3.64 FIP/4.62 xFIP stands head and shoulders above Kluber’s marks, even though Wacha is also sporting a career-low 32.6% ground ball rate. As opposed to Corey’s ugly home run conversion numbers, Michael has a suppressed 6.7% HR/FB rate. That’s tied for 11th lowest among all starters with 40+ innings this season. Pitcher-friendly Petco Park is part of this phenomenon. But there is a strong argument for regression toward lineups taking his fly balls out of the park more frequently.
Which Wacha Shows Up Today?
Michael Wacha is in lockdown mode. The righty logged three straight 6+ inning outings, yielding just a single run in that stretch. Aside from that run against the Twins, Wacha gave up zero runs against the Royals and Reds at Petco. Prior to this recent three-game stretch, things were a little less rosy. 5 innings or fewer and 3 runs or greater against the Cubs, D-backs, and Brewers. So is he in great form or did stepping down in class boost his results? That’s the burning question because we know that Kluber will need serious magic to dodge the Padres’ bullets.
Michael Wacha, Last 6 Games Performance
| Opp | IP | R | K | BB | ERA | FIP/xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCR | 7.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 0.00 | 1.01/2.15 |
| @MIN | 6.0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1.50 | 3.47/5.06 |
| CIN | 6.0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.00 | 3.80/7.25 |
| @CHC | 5.0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5.40 | 4.50/4.13 |
| @ARI | 4.0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11.25 | 2.55/4.94 |
| MIL | 4.1 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14.54 | 8.61/5.55 |
Hitting Means Something, Right?
The Padres find themselves in a multi-week offensive skid, lagging their full season numbers by 20% or so. Sure, Corey Kluber sets up as the antidote to this malady but just about everyone other than Fernando Tatis Jr. has been searching for answers lately. Underperformance means upside in situations like this. Realizing that upside is another story. Not to dismiss the absence of Manny Machado but the All-Star third baseman left for the IL on a four-game hitless streak last week in the midst of the team’s offensive skid. So the Padres have the classic what you see is what you get lineup right now.
Boston, on the other hand, is stacked with quality left-handed hitting but likely without Justin Turner’s bat this afternoon. They’ve regularly hit both lefties and righties quite well too. But Michael Wacha holds some very interesting splits against left-handed hitting this season unlike prior years. His 0.65 points higher SLG vs. lefties goes right into the teeth of a solid 3.24 FIP/3.78 xFIP pairing. Which aspect prevails this afternoon could be the difference maker.
Another significant consideration is the form of these two relief units. San Diego’s is rolling along nicely and usage should not be an issue whatsoever. Their trailing seven-day 0.00 ERA and 2.05 FIP/3.58 xFIP is on the other end of the spectrum from Boston’s 4.35 ERA and 5.14 FIP/5.02 xFIP. All things considered, the Padres should hold a 1/4 to 1/2-run edge to FIP with the bullpen matchup. It’s all about pitching for the Friars while the Sox will rely heavily on their bats to keep their streak alive. I’m holding my nose and backing the uglier pitchers in this one.
WAGER: Red Sox +130 (0.8u)
ALTERNATIVE: Red Sox Over 4 Runs -110
Heading for Home
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