As good as Eduardo Rodriguez was last week, JV’s big day in Cincy overshadowed Wednesday’s early win. I made the fatal flaw of underestimating the accomplished veteran and overvaluing the top of the Reds lineup. Thursday’s sketchy slate left the door open for Friday action but I left my morning handicapping session disappointed with just a Coors Field under featuring Austin Gomber on the mound. That thing got sketchy late -something I hope to avoid with today’s solo shot! Let’s get after it with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-13-2023. BOL this weekend!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
HOUSTON ASTROS @ CHICAGO WHITE SOX (CHW -120, 9)
By now, the word is out that the White Sox and Astros headline the list of disappointing teams as we near the quarter mark of the 2023 season. But there’s a ton of games on the schedule yet. For Houston, their 3-game deficit in the AL West is anything but unsurmountable. As for the Southsiders, well, they sit 8.5 games behind Minnesota and a whopping 14 games below .500. There’s no time like the present to get the ship righted with their ace Dylan Cease on the bump this evening.
B Bielak (R) vs D Cease (R)
Last Monday, I broke down the Dylan Cease situation while making the case for a Royals team total position. The common theory explaining his steep falloff after two phenomenal seasons is that “Cease’s fastball hasn’t been commanded and it hasn’t been thrown at his usual speed“. Kansas City tagged the 2022 Cy Young Award runner up with 58.8% hard contact en route to 7 runs. That has to be an anomaly, right? I have to think so. I still grade Dylan as a high-3.00s to mid-4.00s FIP starter given his 4.19 SIERA and 4.34 FIP/xFIP. Don’t let the 5.58 ERA be his benchmark, especially with a 25.9% strikeout rate – down 4.5% from 2022 – that meshes with Houston’s 23.5% against right-handed pitching.
It isn’t much better on the other side of the ledger though. Brandon Bielak makes his second start and third outing of the season after yielding 5 runs in 8.2 innings with a homer in each game. In opposite fashion compared to Cease, Bielak’s 4.15 ERA cannot be trusted. His 1.20 K/BB ratio has earned the 27-year-old a 6.64 FIP/5.48 xFIP and 5.61 SIERA. Ugly. Walking about as many batters as you strike out is not a recipe for success. And it’s way too early to expect significant positive BABIP regression given Brandon’s propensity to put men on base. Despite Cease’s troubles, the accomplished pitcher still holds a 1/4 to 1 run FIP advantage over his counterpart. Some of that edge is neutralized by a huge defensive gap though.
Who Is Up For the Challenge?
Neither lineup has been sharp against right-handed pitching to date. Kansas City had the benefit of very good form last week when they faced Cease. You cannot make the same argument for the Astros with their .367 slugging and being down 10% and 15% in the trailing 7-day and 14-day periods, respectively. The White Sox, on the other hand, have been on the upswing recently with strong contributions by Andrew Vaughn, Luis Robert Jr., Hanser Alberto, and lefty Gavin Sheets. Plus they got Yoan Moncada back from the IL yesterday.
Chicago’s weather is not conducive to run production, a big factor that initially sparked my interest in the under 9 runs offering. But the prospect of two shaky pitchers and a brutal White Sox bullpen kept me from laying the -120 required to take the under. Are the bullpens the key here? In my eyes, absolutely. Houston’s relief unit has been nearly 3 runs better than Chicago’s in the lens of ERA. What matters more to me is the 1.5-run and 0.8-run edge to FIP and xFIP, respectively. Add in the fielding component and this late-inning gap is considerable, even though Houston’s back end guys may be more limited tonight.
WAGER: Astros +110 (1u)
I’m staying conservative with a simple 1 unit position for two key reasons. First, Brandon Bielak has limited upside when compared to Dylan Cease. Second, the Astros offense is not scaring opponents by any stretch of the imagination. Both lineups are lagging expectations, though Houston holds greater upside against right-handed pitching – something that rests on the shoulders of a “slumping” Kyle Tucker. There’s enough meat on the bone for me to get involved.
Heading for Home
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