A swing and a miss with the Mets yesterday was not the look we were going for when backing the short road favorite. Aside from spectacular defense that both clubs flashed, Jesus Luzardo was a man on a mission. The young lefty absolutely dominated the stout Mets lineup and cut into the young season’s profits. So we roll on with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-1-2023 and another solo shot to start off the weekend.
2023 Featured Handicap Results
TORONTO BLUE JAYS @ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (TOR -135, 7.5)
K Gausman (R) vs. J Flaherty (R)
Spring Training form isn’t everything. What good is it when it comes to a starting pitcher’s regular season debut? For a pitcher like Jack Flaherty who has yet to fully rebound from years of injury setbacks, Spring Training matters. Overweighting his rough final spring outing (4H, 6 ER, 3.2 IP) would be a disservice to my handicap though. On the flip side, Flaherty’s slider – his money pitch prior to those injury-laden seasons – has shown signs of life. And when you back out that disastrous exhibition start, 8 runs over 16 innings seems much less ominous.
Kevin Gasman, on the other hand, did not stretch out much in four spring starts. 0 runs and 18 strikeouts over 13.2 innings is good enough to point towards solid form this afternoon. The 32-year-old veteran continues to grind a filthy splitter without much deference to which side of the plate opponents are hitting from. But my read is to approach Gausman carefully and look for a conservative outing at the 5 IP mark. If he’s cruising, will manager John Schneider push him in to the 6th inning? Perhaps, though this is truly hard to count on after minimal work in the Grapefruit League. Jack Flaherty runs a higher degree of failing to make it through the 5th, whether it be by pitch count limitation or effectiveness issues. A reasonable gap between these starters ranges from a half-run to over a run of ERA/FIP in favor of the Jays’ righty.
The Hit Parade
Opening Day was anything but a pitching clinic as both lineups tagged aces Miles Mikolas and Alek Manoah for a combined 19 hits en route to 34 hits for the entire game! Then the Blue Jays stunned the Cardinals’ phenomenal closer Ryan Helsley for 2 runs in the 9th inning to get the win. A day of rest should certainly do these two heavily-worked bullpens plenty of good. But I’d prefer to leave the relievers out of it for the most part. If I expect a larger advantage via starting pitching differential, that’s where I want to focus.
Looking at these offenses in a vacuum, Toronto has a decent edge from top to bottom. Isolate handedness splits against right-handed pitching and the song remains the same. And if catcher Willson Contreras is unable to go, the offensive dropoff to Andrew Knizner is significant. That’s not to say that Goldy, Arenado, and St. Louis’ crop of young left-handed hitters can’t put in work against Gausman though. As good as Kevin is, he did struggle against this squad last summer in Toronto. I still like his steady approach compared to the tougher row to hoe for Flaherty. Note: today’s weather is cooler than Thursday’s but there’s a stiff wind blowing out to right that could be interesting.
WAGER: Blue Jays First 5 Innings -130 (2u)
WAGER: Blue Jays First 5 Innings RL +104
Nothing like another clown on the internet advocating for pricey favorites, right? I’ve had to loosen up my rules of MLB betting over the years to accommodate more opportunities like this one. Hate the price but dig the handicap? The run line might be the move for you. My wide win probability range for this one spans over 5% with a floor comfortably above the market price. Juiced or not, I had to add this position to my Saturday betting card with exposure capped to 2 units. BOL this weekend!
Heading for Home
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