Race #1 of the NASCAR Playoffs is in the books. Martin Truex, Jr. scored an impressive win at Las Vegas, punching his ticket to the Round of 12. The win also gained him significant ground in the playoff point standings against Kyle Busch. Our betting results were very kind to the bankroll with Keselowski pushing his way to 3rd place and the Busch brothers taking a back seat. Now with the postseason opener in the books, the Cup Series heads east to Virginia. It’s time to buckle up for the BetCrushers Richmond NASCAR race preview!
Richmond Raceway Overview
Richmond Raceway is a special track on the NASCAR circuit. It is a 3/4-mile D-shaped oval. Sounds run-of-the-mill, right? Well, the combination of the track’s shape and 14-degree banking in the turns enables uncharacteristically-fast speeds for a short track.
The Cup Series circuit stops at Richmond twice a year. Both races are night races, which is unique to this venue and part of its legendary status in NASCAR racing. The regular-season finale was held here for years until it was swapped out for its current spot in the playoffs. But it still holds significant weight as the short track representative in the postseason.
Federated Auto Parts 400 Weekend Schedule
The action is going to be fast and furious before the weekend even begins. Since it is a Saturday night race, NASCAR is packing all official pre-race activities into Friday. Dual practice sessions are scheduled for late morning/early afternoon on Friday. The teams turn around and do qualifying at 6:05 ET that evening. Be on the lookout for a practice report and final handicapping on our NASCAR page at BetCrushers.com Saturday morning after the expanded matchup slates get posted online.
The Opening Odds to Win at Richmond
Aces of Richmond
The April 2019 Richmond race was taken down by 2017 NASCAR Cup Series Champion, Martin Truex, Jr. The man all drivers are gunning for, Kyle Busch, swept both 2018 Richmond races in between a pair of Top-10 finishes there. You probably won’t find us playing on or against Kyle this weekend since he’s a loose cannon that is a proven winner here. 2019 playoff contenders Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, and Denny Hamlin took the checkered flags in races prior to Busch’s sweep.
Martin Truex, Jr., Defending Champ
We might as well start with the defending Richmond champion who comes in fresh off of a Las Vegas win. Truex was not in good form going into last weekend’s race, but capitalized on his prowess at that track. Despite Martin being less attuned to short track racing, he has been dialed in lately at Richmond with a 3rd-place finish in last September’s race. His late-season performance had dipped going into Vegas last year as well, where he turned in a solid 3rd before doing the same at Richmond. Expect Truex to put in a Top 5 effort this weekend, though his odds and matchup prices may be overvalued because of his recent Richmond performances.
Kevin Harvick, the Steady Performer
The #4 team has to be a little disappointed with their 2nd place finish in Vegas last weekend. Kevin Harvick led 47 laps of the South Point 400 but settled for a runner-up finish behind Truex. Despite the near miss, this team should be confident in a deep postseason run considering how well they are performing right now. Harvick won three of the seven races going into Vegas and finished no worse than 7th only once in that stretch (clutch issues at Bristol).
Kevin appears to have taken over for Denny Hamlin as our “man with the plan”. Perhaps he is peaking at the right time for a strong postseason run. But we’re only looking at the next race right now: Richmond. Sure, Harvick hasn’t won there since 2013. On the flip side, the #4 Stewart-Haas Ford is a Top 5 machine at Richmond. Since the fall race in 2014, he’s been in the Top 5 in eight of the last ten races (five of which were actual 5th place finishes).
Kevin Harvick (-115) over Denny Hamlin
Our first bet on the Federated Auto Parts 400 backs Kevin Harvick against Denny Hamlin in a pre-qualification pick ’em. We were big on Hamlin several weeks back, and certainly recognize the danger in fading him. Hamlin has been a Top 5 guy at Richmond too, logging five of them in the last six races there – including a win in the September 2017 race. This is far from a slam dunk, but it’s the recent stumbles the #11 team has had versus Harvick’s strong run over the past two months that tips the scales in his favor.
Looking for a Dark Horse?
In the Playoff Mix: Chase Elliott
As holders of a NASCAR Championship futures ticket on Chase Elliott, we are pleased to see him in the 6th position of the playoff standings. Other than a disappointing Darlington race, Elliott has been very good since his Watkins Glen win. We handicap him as a Top-10 racer in his current form with the next few races setting up quite well for him.
Chase needs to put in serious work if he intends to make it into the final four at Homestead. He has been much improved at Richmond since joining the #9 Hendricks team. Making the Top 10 in the fall 2017 race here was a big step forward. A pair of Top 5 finishes in 2018 was another sign that Bill’s son was a force to be reckoned with.
Chase Elliott (-115) over Erik Jones
Despite a disappointing 15th-place finish this spring at Richmond, we expect Elliott to be a big factor Saturday night. He is currently paired up against Erik Jones and Kyle Larson as pick ’ems. Larson has run well over the last couple months so the coin flip price seems right. However, Erik Jones has had his share of troubles since Bristol and hasn’t cracked the Top 10 at Richmond since 2017. When it comes to short track racing, Elliott has a distinct advantage. In the ten short track races since 2018, Chase has seven Top 10 finishes to Jones’ one. Because of this mismatch, our second early-week position is on Chase Elliott against Erik Jones.
Quietly Performing: Austin Dillon
Austin Dillon is not a name you’ve heard us call since BetCrushers.com began its NASCAR coverage. In fact, we haven’t played on or against him in any matchups this season. Other than a dud performance at Bristol, Dillon has finished no worse than 13th since Michigan. Although this is nothing spectacular and he has no championship hopes to motivate him, he may warrant a look in matchups this week.
Not only has Dillon been decent as a mid-tier racer this summer, he has improved at Richmond. His finishes hovered in the low 20s in 2014 and 2015; his first two years as a Cup Series racer. In 2016 and 2017, Austin gradually improved to no worst than 21st. His last three races in 2018 and 2019 have registered 15th, 6th, and 6th place finishes. We’ll have to wait until the weekend for the expanded menu to see who he is matched up against. If his #3 Chevy shows decent five- and 15-lap speeds in practice, we’ll look to play him in matchups and a Top 10 bet if it pays +350 or better.
Nine Races to Go: The Playoff Picture
With a couple regular-season races remaining in the balance, we looked at the postseason and projected the final four drivers at Homestead. We expected Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, Jr., Kevin Harvick, and Denny Hamlin or Brad Keselowski (yes, that is five) to make it as contenders in Miami. All of these guys look solid to make it to the group of final eight drivers, though Hamlin has some work to do over the next five races.
NASCAR.com has updated their assessment of the playoff picture as well. The racing mothership puts Harvick and Keselowski on their hot list, while Jones and Kurt got demoted after last week’s 36th and 39th place finishes. Though we couldn’t decide between Kurt Busch or Kyle Larson making it through the second playoff cut, Larson made big strides with a Top-10 finish in Vegas to begin the playoffs. A driver in the bottom half of the playoff standings who has a bad race like Erik Jones and Kurt Busch can see their championship dreams crumble in a heartbeat.
