PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-5

SEASON RESULTS:
67-67

Super Wild Card Weekend Recap:

Football is a game of inches, and prop bets are wagers of yards. Our Wild Card bets started out not only ugly on the ledger (starting 0-4), but also in how some of them lost. We at least rebounded a bit, but finished at 4-5 which evened up our mark at an even .500 on the season. We continue to hover right around there, and simply can’t get enough momentum to get profitable, and of course are now running out of opportunities. Anyhow, enough wallowing in our own sorrow, let’s take a look at what happened. Our first bet and loss was the only under we had, which was the rushing yardage for Kenneth Walker III against the 49ers tough defense. Depending on what number you got here, it’s possible you won if you bet this. We did not, as Walker was sitting below his total by just a couple of yards with the Seahawks trying to throw in garbage time with under 2:00 minutes left in the game. At one point on the drive with only a minute remaining they faced a 3rd and 1 and handed it off to Walker, who subsequently picked up 4 yards and snuck past his total. It happens, but, ouch. We also had a wager that we still believe was the correct side with Colby Parkinson needing to get only 19 yards, however he only mustered 14. He had plenty of targets to get there, but he and Geno Smith couldn’t connect with Smith under constant pressure from the Niners front. We missed both of our bets with Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen’s receiving yards in the Chargers game, as after building up a 27-0 lead, Los Angeles went way conservative, and we basically lost a quarter of production from both. We did get over with Travis Etienne, Jr. and his rushing total in the game, finally getting us a win. We added a cover with the total yardage for Saquon Barkley, which was actually really frustrating, even though he thankfully got there. The Giants only handed the ball of seven times to their star, but he did break a couple of long runs and catches to get over his marker. We had an easy win with T.J. Hockenson and his yardage as the Giants loaded up to stop Justin Jefferson, forcing Hockenson to pick up the slack. We then split on the Monday night contest, easily winning with Dak Prescott’s over yardage, but getting nothing from Leonard Fournette. Simply not good enough, but back to the drawing board for the Divisional Round.

Divisional Round Preview:

The best weekend of quality football all season and we’ve got a player prop for each game, and two for the finale on Sunday. All five players are certified stars, and we’re expecting some nice performances from at least a few of them. We are fading a couple of Pro Bowlers though, which is always a bit of a risky proposition. One thing is for sure, it will be easy to track how these bets are going as all eyes will be on these guys. Have a great weekend and best of luck to everyone!

Our Picks:

Patrick Mahomes – Under 310.5 Yards Passing (-115)

Sports betting is technically gambling, and anytime you’re fading a player like Patrick Mahomes, you’re doing exactly that. Mahomes torched the league during the regular season, and now faces a new team to the tournament in the Jacksonville Jaguars. At first glance, his yardage total for Saturday’s contest of 310.5 seems pretty appealing to jump on, as he’s eclipsed that in 10 out of his 17 regular season games. Included there was a 331 yard performance in his first matchup against Jacksonville. The Jaguars haven’t been spectacular either with their pass defense, ranking in the bottom third of the league. So why would we want to buck these trends for this game? Two main reasons: First, this is a playoff game, and we’re expecting a little bit more conservative of a game plan out of the Chiefs. There’s no question Mahomes will make some great throws and move the football, but will he be willing to play it completely loose and take some chances he might during the regular season? The second reason is this is starting look more and more like a bad weather game, with temperatures hovering around 30 degrees with rain and even some light snow predicted. Anytime you’re betting against a player like Patrick Mahomes, there’s a real chance you can get embarrassed quickly, but we’re still willing to take a chance to bet the under.

Dallas Goedert – Over 49.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

When looking at where the sportsbooks have Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert’s yardage numbers, they seem to be right around where they probably should be. Goedert opened up around 47.5 and has inched up to 49.5 yards as of Saturday morning. Despite a number that seems about right, we like Goedert to go over against the Giants in their third matchup of the season. Throughout the course of the 2022 campaign, Goedert had just three games that could be considered duds, where he ended up with yardage in the 20’s, the last of which he left early with injury. He was basically in the mid 40 to 80 range for the majority of the other contests, making him one of the most consistent at the position. He has a great matchup against a Giants defense that is very likely to not have their eyes set directly on him. As we witnessed a week ago, the Giants really tried to slow down the big play threats of the Vikings, and had some success in doing so. The flip side of that was some of the other players were able to put up some pretty nice performances, including T.J. Hockenson, who is a very similar type player to Goedert. Look for the Giants to try to lock up A.J. Brown, and watch the running threat of Hurts, giving some room to Goedert as a pass catcher.

Josh Allen – Over 324.5 Yards Passing and Rushing (-115)

A heavyweight matchup between the Bills and the Bengals will showcase two of the league’s top stars in quarterbacks Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. There’s a lot of talk about who’s the better player, and you can probably make an argument either way. Allen is a more dynamic player, and it’s that trait that has us playing a prop that is a little less traditional for us in this game. Our initial read was on taking Allen’s rushing total as this seems like a spot where he’ll use his legs quite a bit. For starters, the Bengals should get some pressure on Allen, making him a candidate to take off and scramble. Additionally, with some criticism coming about his turnovers a week ago, he’ll want to be a little safer with the ball. And finally, in tight games, he always attempts to put the team on his back. With that being said, the Bengals showed in the first series against the Bills that they’re planning to spy Allen basically the entire game. It’s impossible to know if that will actually happen, or if that means they’d stop him, but it’s clearly a focal point for their defense. We’re going to play the passing yardage total with the rushing yardage total instead, believing this gives us two ways to get there potentially. In a game that could end up being a shootout, Allen should throw for a lot of yards. The Bengals are pretty sound against the run, so Allen will be throwing a lot. Between his arm and his legs, this should be a game where Allen can hit 350 total yards, and we’re expecting it.

George Kittle – Under 46.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

A slow start to the 2022 season picked up for 49ers tight end George Kittle when Brock Purdy took over as the starting quarterback. The rookie QB found Kittle early and often, leaning on him as he got comfortable in the offense and the league. Fast forward to the last few games of the season and Kittle’s performance has slowed down a bit notching receiving yardage totals in the 20’s and 30’s. Sunday he has a tough matchup against a Dallas Cowboys defense that has really been able to put the clamps on opposing tight ends, ranking third overall in that department. As much as Kittle has an uphill battle there, his bigger battle is getting a piece of the pie in the loaded 49ers skill position offense. With Deebo Samuel healthy, Christian McCaffrey and Eli Mitchell in the backfield, and the consistent Brandon Aiyuk at receiver, there simply isn’t a lot of work left for Kittle. Unless he’s able to break a long pass, which is unlikely versus this Cowboys middle field defense, he should stay under the mark.

Dak Prescott – Over 252.5 Yards Passing (-115)

The Dallas Cowboys will have to overcome the top ranked defense in the league when they head west to take on the 49ers. That means it could be a tough day for an offense that was absolutely unstoppable for most of their game against the Buccaneers on Monday night. While it’s true the Niners defense is the best in the league, it has to be pointed out that their top strength is in defending the run. Because they are so good at stopping the run, teams are forced to try to throw against them. Couple that with San Francisco generally putting up some points of their own, and by default they end up giving up some yardage. Over the second half of the season they gave up nearly 270 yards passing per game, which is a mark that is a little surprising for such a great defense. With the exception of that disastrous performance that Dak and the Cowboys offense had against Washington to finish the regular season, he topped 256 yards in five of his last six games. Dallas may or may not be able to take down the 49ers, and Dak may or may not play a great game, but either way he should accumulate some yardage through a full 60 minute game. Let’s see if his over can hit for us two weeks in a row.

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