PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
1-2

SEASON RESULTS:
63-62

Week 18 Recap:

Our final week of the regular season resulted in what we’ll call a 1-1 mark, with one game being “we’re idiots and we’re sorry”. We had a shot with our Jarrett Stidham over prop, but fell just short as the Raiders could not get the ball back at the end of the game, leaving him just missing his yardage total. We were on the money with a win on our Jared Goff under play, as that game went exactly as we had planned. Our “we’re idiots and we’re sorry” play was taking the over with Justin Jefferson and his receiving total. We did not do enough research to learn that Jefferson would be sitting for most of the final three quarters of the game, obviously dooming that prop. (If anything we should have figured this out and took the other side). There’s no excuse for poor handicapping like that, and for anyone who tailed, our sincere apologies. For whatever it’s worth, that’s why we were going thin to begin with in the final weekend, due to situations just like that.

Super Wild Card Weekend Preview:

We’re pretty heavy on our prop bets for Super Wild Card Weekend, but with justifiable reason. In the playoffs, it’s a lot simpler to know what you’re going to get from a team and it’s players. Not only are you getting maximum effort, but you generally don’t need to worry about players being rested or platooned. For our selections we’ve got nine total wagers, with just one under play. It’s actually a recent play we had that lost, that we’re taking another shot at on Saturday afternoon. With the playoff matches this weekend being repeats of earlier games in the season we also have some solid historical data to pick through. We avoided the games with backup quarterbacks, as these seem to be the type that could have the variance and weird game scripts that we’re hoping to steer clear of. If you love great football, the next few weeks are for you, so enjoy the games and let’s make some money.

Our Picks:

Kenneth Walker III – Under 58.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Perhaps the hottest running back in the league entering the playoffs is the Seahawks Kenneth Walker III, who finished the regular season with three straight 100 yard performances. Walker has been a beast, and is the conversation for rookie of the year, and deservedly so. In breaking this one down, you need to go back to the game before that streak to finish that season to find where he didn’t top the century mark, a game where he tallied 47 yards rushing. That happened to be against the San Francisco 49ers, the team that boasts the fiercest rush defense and overall defense in the league. Walker is a powerful runner who also can break long runs, something that crushed the under when we played that in week 17 as he opened the game with a 70 yard scamper. This wager is pretty simple for us, it’s strength versus strength, but the 49ers defense is simply stronger. When you add in the possible game script of the Seahawks trailing in the second half, we’re going to fade the young star in this matchup.

Colby Parkinson – Over 18.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

There is basically one player/wager that we have with our prop bets that is not a headline name, and that’s the Seahawks Colby Parkinson. Over the course of the season, Parkinson has emerged and surprisingly leads the Hawks tight ends in snap count, overtaking Noah Fant. The books still have not adjusted for this yet, as Fant’s yardage total is higher than Parkinson’s heading into this contest with the 49ers. Again, game script could come into play, as the Seattle could be trailing in the second half. Parkinson finished the regular season with 45, 36, and 47 yards, respectively. With a total less than half of that, we’re willing to roll the dice with an unknown entity in this game. This is the type of bet that makes you feel really smart or really dumb when the game is over. Let’s see how we’re feeling after this game.

Austin Ekeler – Over 38.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

In what could be the game of the weekend, the Chargers head to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars in a game of dueling young quarterbacks. The Jaguars have tightened up their run defense, which should slow things down against a Chargers team that often doesn’t run it well anyhow. What Los Angeles does do however, is get the ball into the hands of Austin Ekeler as a receiver, where he is very dangerous. The Jaguars have had some issues stopping backs and tight ends as receivers this season, and no one is better than Ekeler in that role. In a playoff spot, you would have to imagine that the Chargers will not only want to get the ball into Ekeler’s hands, but also that Just Herbert will want to be safe with the ball checking it down when needed. With Mike Williams out of the lineup, those targets should get spread around between the rest of the group, so that could mean an extra ball or two headed towards Ekeler. Big players step up in big games, and this is a spot where Ekeler should shine.

Keenan Allen – Over 81.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

If you refuse to play “bad” numbers that have moved against you, then this isn’t the play for you. Allen’s yardage opened at 73.5 and has ticked up, both due to his favorable matchup, and more so the news of Mike Williams missing this contest against the Jaguars. Truth be told, grabbing Allen’s over 6.5 receptions was the best play, but that’s now heavily juiced, so the yardage marker is the better option if you like him in this spot. We’re still rolling with Allen here as you can basically rinse and repeat our breakdown with Austin Ekeler above. It’s likely that Josh Palmer and Gerald Everett will also poach some of Mike Williams work, but Allen will be the top benefactor. Add in the fact that Allen will lineup the majority of the time in the slot, which is what the Jaguars have struggled covering, and here you go. We’re projecting 8-10 catches and 90-100 yards for Allen, so even with the less appealing number, we’re still going to give him a play.

Travis Etienne, Jr. – Over 74.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The Chargers welcome back Joey Bosa just in time to try to wreak havoc against Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville passing game. The addition of Bosa makes the Chargers a team that could really be tough to drop back and throw against. If the Jaguars are smart, they’ll avoid that and try to win this game on the ground, where Los Angeles is absolutely softer. Injuries in their interior have made them struggle all season against the run, even though they have played a bit better down the stretch. Etienne is the type of runner who can break big runs, particularly against a softer rush defense. While the second year man has been a little up and down in his first year starting, this is a spot where we expect him to shine, as head coach Doug Pederson will undoubtedly want to protect Lawrence, particularly early on. With a tight point spread, the expectation is this will be a close game, so Etienne should be able to get the rock for all four quarters. It’s a high number mark to crack, but Etienne should find a way to get there.

Saquon Barkley – Over 100.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)

Things sure seemed to quiet down for Saquon Barkley in the second half of the season after a monster start to the 2022 campaign. You’re not imagining things, as the talented back saw his carries drastically decrease down the stretch run. That’s actually a great thing for both he and the Giants as he should be relatively fresh heading into their playoff matchup against the Vikings. These two teams played just a few weeks ago, and despite only having 14 carries, Barkley had 84 yards rushing and tacked on another 49 yards receiving. Expect a heavier workload in a win or go home situation, and against a perplexingly bad defense, Barkley should have a big game. Players like Barkley are built for games like this, and asking him to go over the 100 yard mark rushing and receiving seems like it isn’t too much.

T.J. Hockenson – Over 48.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

The Vikings wasted no time working tight end T.J. Hockenson into the fold on their offense, and he’s paid instant dividends. With the exception of the regular season finale where he mainly rested, Hockenson has gotten a minimum of six targets in every game that he’s played, and has averaged over eight. At this point, he’s clearly Kirk Cousins second option behind All-Pro Justin Jefferson in the passing game. Hockenson will take aim at a Giants defense that has had their struggles against opposing tight ends. If you need a recent reminder, when these teams played each other in week 16, Hockenson grabbed 13 catches for a 109 yards and a pair of touchdowns. While we’re not expecting a duplicate of that performance, it certainly has shown that he can have success against this defense. With his yardage total being below 50, this just feels like a wager we have to take a shot with. If T.J. can get us half of what he did the first time these teams played, it’s a winner.

Leonard Fournette – Over 37.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

No team struggled running the football this season as much as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did. A depleted offensive line, very unimaginative play-calling, and a lack of commitment all likely factored into those challenges. This is the playoffs however, and we all remember what Leonard Fournette’s nickname was from a couple of seasons ago, right? Let’s not kid ourselves, a return of that type of dominance is highly unlikely, however this yardage total of just 38.5 yards rushing does seem a little low. There’s a few reasons to be bullish on Fournette in this contest. For starters, it’s the playoffs, and one would have to think that Tom Brady is going to want to lean on the veteran a little more than rookie Rachaad White. Secondly, the Cowboys have had some struggles of their own at times in stopping physical running backs. And perhaps most importantly, the Buccaneers offensive line is about as healthy as it’s been entering the playoffs. It’s always a little nerve-racking to play an over with a bet like this, but with a number this low, we’re willing to give Fournette a shot at maybe being minor playoff Lenny.

Dak Prescott – Over 245.5 Yards Passing (-115)

There may not be a team or a quarterback feeling more pressure heading into the postseason than the Cowboys and Dak Prescott. A slew of bad interceptions down the stretch have many questioning Dak’s ability to lead this team in the postseason, and now they have to go on the road to Tampa. We’re actually expecting the Buccaneers to pull the small upset in this game, but that doesn’t mean Dak can’t over his yardage total throwing. Yes, he looked terrible a week ago against Washington, but it’s worth pointing out that he eclipsed 250 yards passing in all four of the games before that. In fact, when you look at Dak’s game logs, he’s about as consistent of a 260 yard passer as any quarterback in the league. Todd Bowles is going to make sure that Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott don’t beat them, so there should be enough one-on-one matchups for Prescott to take advantage of. We’re not going to commit to saying whether or not Dak will have a “good” game versus the Bucs, but we are willing to say he finds his way over the yardage total.

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