Just like that, two domestic books drop their season win totals out of the blue. Days away from the NFL Playoffs kickoff and our mid-January projections get put to the test. Caesars Sportsbook and BetRivers (Kambi) posted eight totals in common this week and the other 22 varied anywhere from 1/2 to 3 wins between the two books. Twelve of the thirty clubs had interesting totals…four of which broke the ice on my early 2023 MLB futures wagers portfolio. Here’s some preliminary thoughts on these win total positions as production on our 4th Annual Edition of MLB Divisional Previews rolls along in the background!
Flipping the AL Central
BetRivers won’t tolerate a lot of action but it’s not like I’m trying to get down five figures in January on win totals anyways. The AL Central treated us well last year with overs on Cleveland and Minnesota, the latter of whom barely got there. This year, the division’s win totals look fairly well priced except for the Twins and the White Sox in my opinion.
Minnesota’s offensive spike was far from the Bombas Squad style of aiming for the fences. In fact, the 2022 lineup was simply better than average across the board with the services of Carlos Correa and an infield full of rock solid hitters. Supplemented by flexible platoon infielder Kyle Farmer, the infield returns in tact alongside an outfield with plenty of questions. Will Byron Buxton reach the 400 PA mark? Is Joey Gallo on track to recover from his Yankee Stadium experience? These are the Twins’ main sources of variance that lead my position player base projection into the “treading water” category.
Starting pitching is quite solid from a talent perspective, though injury history challenges workload expectations. Barring disaster, the rotation stands to gain a couple wins in conjunction with a sneaky good bullpen that can hold onto leads and keep the team in games late. Flip to the White Sox and you get better, more durable top-end talent in Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, and Lucas Giolito. Without much depth behind them, Chicago’s starting rotation pencils out 1 win or so better than Minnesota’s. Both bullpens should be quite good though the loss of closer Liam Hendricks for an unknown period of time to battle lymphoma is a factor.
WAGER: Twins Over 78.5 Wins -110 (CZR)
WAGER: White Sox Under 86.5 Wins -114 (BetRiv)
We’ve grown accustomed to the White Sox’ terrific lineup propped up by Tim Anderson’s hitting prowess and the raw talent of guys like Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert. Jose Abreu’s departure leaves another hole, however, joining second base and right field as looming question marks. Fortunately, Andrew Benintendi filled the other lineup gap and can only help an ailing defense. I’ll have much more detail in our upcoming divisional previews but this correlated win total pair is based on the significant spread between these two defenses and where these teams’ baselines should be for 2023. Their 2022 pythags are almost exact opposites, calling for more of an equal footing baseline this offseason. Even if you are skeptical about the Twins’ price I find it hard to make a case for such a big jump with the White Sox.
Big Cushion in the Steel City
Much like last year’s position on a sneaky talented Orioles team that had big holes on their roster, the Pirates present an interesting futures opportunity in 2023. Their rotation is piecemeal and bullpen about where you would expect a 62-win team’s relief unit to be. While the gains may be slim to none with Pittsburgh’s pitching staff, the position player corps offers enough upside to make a one-win improvement in 2023 very realistic.
The gaping hole at first base has been filled by Ji-Man Choi while Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes continue to mature. Yet it’s the relatively unproven names like Jack Suwinski, Rodolfo Castro, Cal Mitchell, and Ji Hwan Bae that hold collective upside. We’re not talking about breakout potential per se, more like let’s throw everything at the wall and see what sticks level of contribution. This one is ugly but very bettable.
WAGER: Pirates Over 62.5 Wins -110 (CZR)
Two key caveats: I skew 2023 baselines with 2022 pythag. So if you don’t buy into that, slash 3-4 wins off my outlook. And Bryan Reynolds is going to get traded – either this spring or before the summer deadline – so cut another 1-2 wins off, especially against their top end expectation. Those modifications put Pittsburgh’s preliminary win range at 67-74. Don’t know about you but that still makes for a healthy cushion in my book.
Still Good in a Tightening Division?
Asking for low-90s wins from Tampa Bay in a division respected for its heavy hitters seems like a lot. And I continue to scratch my head about whether manager Kevin Cash’s roster manipulation can be quantified into wins. In full disclosure, this was more of a number grab than anything as my deep dive into the Rays won’t take place for another week or two. Baltimore and Boston both stand to hang just below the .500 mark again this season while Toronto and New York battle for the division. Yet as you can see on my Super Early Win Total Projection Range chart below, I have a wide bar for the Blue Jays that leaves plenty of meat on the bone for teams like Tampa Bay to vulture.
Tampa Bay’s bullpen should continue to be better than most, much like the rotation. There’s enough continuity with the pitching staff to support 2022’s good marks. The real potential lies with the position players despite the loss of Ji-Man Choi, especially when it comes to Wander Franco returning to the mix. Franco obviously improves the lineup but his stellar defensive contributions will only help juice the team’s fielding into B-tier status. Don’t underestimate the range of this squad’s plus hitters like Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Harold Ramirez, and an up-and-coming Jonathan Aranda who could take much the edge off of losing Choi in free agency. Tampa is akin to the tortoise racing the AL East’s hares of New York and Toronto.
WAGER: Rays Over 88 Wins -110 (CZR)
Wrapping Up Our Early 2023 Futures Wagers
There’s plenty of time this offseason for freak injuries and poor looks in Spring Training to shuffle things up. But these are four positions where the margin between the market and my outlook ranges were worth a bet. Here’s a look at our very preliminary win total ranges for the 2023 MLB season:
From Season Win Total Betting to Opening Day: Thursday, March 30th!!!
That’s a wrap on our early 2023 futures wagers! Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com – your source for free handicapping insights into our daily baseball plays. Plus our divisional previews roll out after the Super Bowl, so be sure to follow our Twitter feed or subscribe below for email alerts to stay in the loop.
