From a win total futures betting perspective, the NL West joined the AL Central as sweet spots for the bankroll last fall. The Dodgers could not be stopped while the Giants fell off a cliff once May rolled around. But Los Angeles and their MLB-leading 111 wins couldn’t keep them from falling to division rival San Diego in the NLDS – a massive disappointment for a team that was in cruise control for over five months. Even so, the Padres’ emotional playoff series win was not enough to stop the scorching hot Phillies in the NLCS from reaching the World Series. Are there enough cracks in L.A.’s armor to unseat them from the 2023 NL West throne?
This is one in a series of six Divisional Previews & Futures outlooks for the 2023 MLB season – the 4th Annual Edition at BetCrushers.com. It’s an incremental process from season to season full of blood, sweat, and tears. As always, thanks to our loyal readers and BOL this season! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.)
2022 Division Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
2022 NL West Final Standings
- Los Angeles Dodgers (111-51)
- San Diego Padres (89-73)
- San Francisco Giants (81-81)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (74-88)
- Colorado Rockies (68-94)
Los Angeles Dodgers 2023 Win Total: Open 96.5, Now 96
2022 Result: Over 94.5 (111-51 / Pythag: 116)
Our general expectation for L.A. to eclipse the 100-win mark last season turned out to be low, but profitable nonetheless. That’s my selfish take on the their stellar season anyhow. Loyal Dodgers fans like our friend Pig Vig have a slightly different perspective though. Despite boasting a top three offense, superb fielding, and a pitching staff second to few, this club could not muster a postseason series victory. It may not invalidate their spectacular regular season but it does beg the question whether this club can keep their edge in 2023.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- D. Peralta (OF)
- M. Rojas (SS)
- JD Martinez (DH)
- N. Syndergaard (RHP – SP)
- Y. Hernandez (INF)
- S. Miller (RHP – RP)
Subtractions:
- A. Reyes (RHP – RP)
- T. Anderson (LHP – SP)
- C. Bellinger (OF)
- C. Kimbrel (RHP – RP)
- A. Heaney (LHP – SP)
- T. Turner (SS)
- J. Turner (3B)
- D. Price (RHP – RP)
- H. Alberto (INF)
- E. Rios (INF)
- J. Gallo (OF)
- C. Martin (RHP – RP)
BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 92 – 94
— Rotation —
It takes an effort from all aspects of a team to blow through the century mark in wins and land at 111 for the season. As you would expect from a team reaching such heights, the Dodgers rotation finished the 2022 season ranked #1 in both ERA (2.75) and WHIP (1.04). Starters excelled at keeping runners off the bases; a trait so essential to elite-level run prevention. And prevent runs they did. An MLB-low 305 runs yielded by the L.A. rotation helped fuel the team’s gaudy 116-win pythagorean total. When you dig deeper, however, these dominant numbers carry some baggage in the form of 7th-lowest FIP (3.59) and 10th-lowest xFIP (3.76). Don’t get me wrong though, this starting pitcher group earned their spot in the upper echelon alongside the Astros and Yankees.
LAD Starting Pitchers w/ 10+ Starts, 2022
| IP | ERA | FIP/xFIP | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urias | 175.0 | 2.16 | 3.71/3.81 | 3.2 |
| Anderson* | 170.2 | 2.58 | 3.38/4.17 | 3.7 |
| Gonsolin | 130.1 | 2.14 | 3.28/3.69 | 2.7 |
| Kershaw | 126.1 | 2.28 | 2.57/2.83 | 3.8 |
| Buehler** | 65.0 | 4.02 | 3.80/3.64 | 1.0 |
| Heaney* | 64.2 | 3.06 | 3.98/2.92 | 0.8 |
| White | 46.2 | 3.47 | 4.06/4.34 | 0.6 |
If you don’t lean toward the math side of MLB handicapping, then BABIP probably doesn’t mean much to you. To me, the Dodgers’ league-low .252 BABIP forces recalibration for several starters heading into the 2023 season. Two key contributors ended the year with tremendously low BABIPs, while Walker Buehler stood as the only starter with a figure over .280. Granted, I don’t immediately dismiss low BABIPs as “lucky” – many pitchers have strong track records of achieving those marks via skill and/or with a great defense behind them.
Two pitchers I flagged with BABIP regression potential for 2023 are Julio Urias (.229) and Tony Gonsolin (.229). You can see the wide gaps between ERA and FIP/xFIP in the table above to the tune of well over 1 each. But I can’t knock Urias too greatly since his prior three seasons established a benchmark around .260. Considering the lefty kept within his typical range for other contact metrics – K/BB, ground ball, hard contact – next season’s potential regression should cap him close to mid-3.00s FIP and the 3.0 WAR mark. A similar case can be made for Gonsolin despite having much less of a history to lean on. All three of the 28-year-old’s secondary pitches rated quite highly, making him an interesting follow this season. If anything, limited workload could keep him from breaking the 2-WAR ceiling this year.
Maintaining a Dominant Rotation
It was a throwback season for 34-year-old Clayton Kershaw and his significant contributions to the bunch. Except for missing most of May and August on the IL that led to a second consecutive season with less than 130 IP, the lefty’s 15th season with the Dodgers was highly successful. Ground balls, weak contact, whiffs – all the factors we’ve grown to appreciate from Kershaw – were there in 2022. Fortunately for L.A. he has a reasonable shot to maintain a 3.0+ WAR as his sub-3.00 performance is likely to backslide a bit. But the prospect of tacking on 30-50 innings help take the edge off of that. The calculus is fairly simple for a veteran like this. Stay off the IL, produce value well beyond the team’s backups.
So who picks up the surprising slack left behind by Tyler Anderson and his one-year “show me” stint? He really showed the MLB something with an out of nowhere 4.0-WAR, 178.2-inning season that was good enough for a new 3-year, $39M deal in Orange County. Regression in 2023 after massively exceeding expectations means nothing to the Dodgers – only replacing Anderson’s workload and value do at this point. So is this where Dustin May comes into play? Modest results in his end-of-season return from TJ surgery point to a very good mid-3.00s FIP 2023. That is a boon, though the 25-year-old’s key is working past the 100 IP threshold for the fist time in his young MLB career. Workload expectations should be in the low 100s, leading to a value up to 2.0 WAR as ground balls and soft contact pair well with the Dodgers defense.
Sum of the Parts
Losing Walker Buehler to Tommy John surgery hurts the team very little on a season over season basis. However, the 180+ innings that the Dodgers have grown accustomed to leaves a sizable hole to fill. Enter Noah Syndergaard and his projected 1-2 WAR contribution. Thor’s cliched ceiling is much lower compared to his days with the Mets, though a low-4.00s FIP via his new contact-based approach helps eat much-needed innings for the club. Then again, Syndergaard could be working to regain his pre-TJ surgery profile and be the power pitcher he once was.
Since the Dodgers lack three dependable 175+ inning starters, greater emphasis falls on Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove to build off of their 13 combined starts in last year’s MLB debuts. Then again, you can never count out this front office snagging an affordable veteran at some point to round out the rotation. As it stands today, L.A.’s starting pitching is 2-3 wins short of the previous year’s. But this gap could be narrowed with a strategic move or two.
— Bullpen —
I was way off in thinking that the Dodgers’ bullpen would have a difficult time repeating its successes of 2021. Wrong. It was even better. And they did it with a completely different high-leverage core group. In 2021, Kenley Jansen, Blake Treinen, and Jimmy Nelson provided the lion’s share of reliever value. Flash forward a season and Treinen’s injuries kept essentially him out all year, Nelson’s TJ surgery certainly did, and Jansen found himself in Atlanta with the Braves. In their absence, unsung heroes Evan Phillips and Alex Vesia partnered up with Chris Martin and Craig Kimbrel to cut the unit’s ERA and FIP by about a 1/2 run.
The really good news is most of their relief horses are back in the stable for 2023. The other side of the coin concerns a couple key losses. Chris Martin left for Boston after a clutch second half 1.46 ERA and 1.13 FIP/1.92 xFIP, and Craig Kimbrel’s 22 saves over 60.0 inning is now in Philly. With Treinen expected to miss nearly all of 2023, the burden falls squarely on five key arms to maintain top-end status in the face of an anticipated loss of 3-4 wins.
The 2023 Cast of Characters
- Evan Phillips – leader for the 2023 closer spot; I hate to be the BABIP regression guy again, but a .228 mark with exceptional home run avoidance calls for a more modest upper-2.00s FIP season ahead compared to 1.14 ERA and 1.94 FIP/2.72 xFIP in 2022.
- Daniel Hudson – also a candidate for the primary closer role, the 36-year-old journeyman pitched only 24.1 innings with outlier metrics such as a 53.4% ground ball rate – about 15% over expectation – and a 6.00 K/BB ratio that exceeded a surprising 4.69 in 2021.
- Alex Vesia – if his home run luck wears off, the lefty reliever is looks to be more in the upper 2.00s neighborhood.
- Brusdar Graterol – should be business as usual as the 24-year-old continues to increase workload in the low-3.00s range.
- Yency Almonte – his first year away from Coors Field yielded a 1.02 ERA; look deeper and the .186 BABIP and 3.17 FIP/3.65 xFIP point toward a tougher row to hoe.
— Position Players —
Los Angeles’ offense returned to A+ form last season, led by household names Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Trea Turner. Clearly it takes more than three big names and a top pitching staff to win 111 games. But the question bouncing around in my mind focuses on why the market is pricing the Dodgers 10+ fewer wins than before. Do with them what you may: my estimates above account for 5-7 of the lost wins. Does losing a pair of Turners, Cody Bellinger, and several role players mean the position player group should decline by 7 more?
A non-trade swap saw Justin Turner leave for Boston “in exchange” for designated hitter JD Martinez. Although limited, the loss of Turner’s positional flexibility between third base and DH will cost the Dodgers some value and several points of offensive productivity. At least the Max Muncy-Freddie Freeman pairing should offer stability at the corners. Muncy’s down year featured a strong second half and Freeman’s best non-COVID offensive season bode well for 2023. Plus L.A. has consistency behind the plate with their top-five catching duo of Will Smith and Austin Barnes. We all know Smith is a stud and Barnes is arguably one of the best backup options outside of Toronto’s Danny Jansen. Back-of-the-envelope math puts the infield bats at a 7-8% shortfall from 2022.
The Infield Shuffle
Depth is one area to consider. Utility man extraordinaire Chris Taylor is best suited as a fill in where we need ya dude, which happened to be left field more often than not last season. Before the Dodgers signed David Peralta last week there was a distinct possibility that Taylor would be tapped for more regular left field duties and further erode the team’s depth and flexibility. Aside from a potential Peralta-Taylor platoon in left, Chris and fellow veteran Miguel Rojas serve as quality support to L.A.’s young starters.
The shuffle begins with Gavin Lux vacating second base and sliding over to take Trea Turner’s place at shortstop. Lux finally showed off the skills that garnered hype in his prospect years with a .276/.346/.399 line and 3.0 WAR. Similar production with more reps should get him back to that valuation despite some BABIP regression. That’s a far cry from Trea’s 6.3 WAR though. A big positive with these moves in making room for one of the organization’s most anticipated young players to get plenty of reps at second base.
23-year-old Miguel Vargas made Paul Sporer’s 5 Potential Breakouts per Steamer Projections list this winter, noting that “Vargas can hit and he has a solid chance to be an instant impact rookie next year.” Good luck finding a negative outlook on the native third baseman, who could easily rack up a ton of playing time in the infield or outfield. So it’s fair to say that the Dodgers have flexibility – or uncertainty, depending on how you want to look at it – with guys like Vargas, Muncy, and Taylor this season. Plus L.A.’s #3 prospect Michael Busch has a strong chance to get called up this summer.
Anchored by Betts
Considerable change is on deck for one of the league’s most well-rounded outfields. Mookie Betts serves as a crucial constant in right field after a stellar 35-homer, .269/.340/.533 campaign. Oh yeah, he also saved 15 runs with elite fielding skills. A healthy 30-year-old Betts has a high probability of backing up his 6.6-WAR season with a similar value, shaded slightly to the downside. However, center field is more of a blank canvas without Cody Bellinger on the roster. Trayce Thompson appears to be the leading candidate for the job going into Spring Training with the younger James Outman and emerging talent Andy Pages on his heels.
Outman was in position to be a piece of the outfield puzzle before the Dodgers’ mid-February David Peralta signing. The veteran left-hander Peralta is slated to take over regular left field duties after arriving a one-year deal. His middle-of-the-road hitting and fielding buys time for guys like Outman and Pages to develop. The problem I have with with Thompson is the Patrick Wisdom vibe he projects: a strong bat with plenty of holes. That type of variance could get wonky after last season’s .374 BABIP but I can see the appeal of giving him a run with multiple options to fall back on. The outfield’s full-season effectiveness ranges right around average with variance in either direction. Still, no reason to think the Dodgers defense can’t be one of the best again.
Depth Matters
All told, the Dodgers face headwinds in the depth department if their young bucks struggle to gain a foothold in the majors. That could force Dave Roberts’ hand to roll out a guy like Jason Heyward who, outside of the shortened 2020 season, has not offered an above-average bat since 2015. It’s a pinch caused by the club’s outfielder pipeline drying up with the exception of Outman and Pages. Although he still has some work to do in the minors on the heels of a decent season in AA Tulsa. This puts a heavy dependence on Thompson, Peralta, and the other relatively unproven talent.
Assuming Miguel Rojas’ wrist surgery is successful, he offers very good defense in a Chris Taylor lite type of role. The “lite” is emphasized as Miguel has a lesser bat and a lot less flexibility. Shallower depth is a factor that can easily be overlooked in roster evaluation, yet it is much more important for a championship-seeking team like the Dodgers. It steepens the dropoff between regular starters and the bench. That may not matter on most days but will be a factor with prolonged IL stints or in giving key starters more off days. Offseason attrition should lead to several percentage points less production at the plate, an issue that could be exacerbated if their depth is tested too frequently.
San Diego Padres 2023 Win Total: Open 93.5, Now 94
2022 Result: Under 90.5 (89-73 / Pythag: 86)
The San Diego Padres franchise has known for over a decade that if it wants to make the postseason, it has to be via the wild card route. 2022 was no different as they climbed the ladder the hard way. A path through New York and Los Angeles led the Padres to one hell of a series with Philadelphia. No shame in San Diego’s game considering that the Phils had the hottest bats going last October. Imagine what this club can achieve with full seasons of elite talent from Manny Machado, Juan Soto, and Fernando Tatis, Jr. at the same time!
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- M. Wacha (RHP – SP)
- A. Engel (OF)
- N. Cruz (DH)
- M. Carpenter (INF)
- S. Lugo (RHP)
- X. Bogaerts (SS)
Subtractions:
- M. Clevinger (RHP – SP)
- B. Drury (INF)
- J. Profar (OF)
- J. Bell (1B/DH)
- S. Manaea (LHP – SP)
- W. Myers (1B/OF)
- J. Alfaro (C)
BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 88 – 101
— Position Players —
You would think a lineup featuring elite hitters Manny Machado, Juan Soto, and Fernando Tatis, Jr. will be significantly better than one with Soto for part of a season and Tatis for none. It doesn’t take a mathematician to work that kind of math. Fernando’s suspension has less than a month remaining and the 2023 version of Juan Soto is sure to be better than the last…right? Kinda crazy that a 145 wRC+ season would be considered a down year for a player! However, the 24-year-old was off by about 20% offensively all year in both Washington and San Diego. The plate discipline was still there so I’m willing to blame a .249 BABIP for his statistical “troubles”. I’m not the only one in that camp either. There’s consistency amongst projection systems in calling for Soto’s average to rebound by about 40 points and slugging to get back above .500.
The reality is, Soto’s gains probably offset Manny Machado’s regression coming out of a career year. The 6x All-Star third baseman smacked 32 homers, scored 100 runs, and drove in 102 en route to a 152 wRC+. Powerful contact (49.0% HH%) and an unexpected .337 BABIP outweighed a spike in strikeouts (20.7% K%). He’s a tough one to put a finger on though. You have to account for some BABIP regression that could cut 10-20% offensively and cost 2+ wins of value. So a conservative view of Machado-Soto in 2023 almost has to be a wash with last season; the key difference being that Juan Soto wears Padres brown all year.
Squeezing Them All In
The blockbuster 11-year deal that brought shortstop Xander Bogaerts cross-country from Boston cements one of the best infields out there. I am skeptical of the season Bogaerts just had in the field, one that culminated in his first positive runs-saved season and best zone rating at the age of 29. That’s not old, but it’s not young either. Surely nobody in the Padres clubhouse is complaining about adding another 4+ WAR player to the mix.
Questions are abuzz about where to play Tatis when he returns from suspension on April 20th. Bogaerts may or may not be the better fit at shortstop but defensive metrics can be tricky, even with a full season of data. The true impact of his return is actually based on the cascading effect of bumping Ha-Seong Kim to second base and Jake Cronenworth to first. It shaves a few runs of fielding efficiency from the infield and leaves Fernando as the odd man out. The dynamic 24-year-old could become a full-time outfielder or even a “super utility player“. I have full confidence in manager Bob Melvin overcoming these first world troubles and finding a spot for Tatis on a daily basis. Part-time DH work is certainly not out of the question.
More Pieces of the Puzzle
Catching duo Austin Nola and rookie 24-year-old Luis Campusano should provide a 1+ win boost assuming Nola rebounds after a down year behind the plate. Campusano left a lot to be desired in limited time with the big league club and now assumes the backup role with fan favorite Jorge Alfaro out in free agency. The 90 wRC+ Alfaro leaves behind (35.8% K rate!) should be attainable for Luis with greater playing time. San Diego’s backstop pair figure to be a stabilizing force that can counteract most of the defensive losses created by moving Kim and losing Jurickson Profar from the outfield. If the Padres defense moves in one way or another, my lean is slightly downwards.
A healthy Trent Grisham in center is key to maintaining one of the better defensive outfields in the MLB. Most signs point to his fielding being as good as usual with a bump back to league average at the plate. A 6% pop in strikeouts and uncharacteristically low .231 BABIP suggest that Trent gets there in 2023. San Diego’s flurry of offseason signings also include the rejuvenated Matt Carpenter, who figures to be a helpful platoon hitter against righties. Plus they aim to squeeze the remaining juice out of 42-year-old designated hitter Nelson Cruz. Was offseason eye surgery the ticket after he failed to defy Father Time with the Nationals? It’s worth a $1M shot to supplement last year’s mid-pack offense that should be several percentage points stronger in 2023.
— Rotation —
San Diego needed more out of their rotation than what they got in 2021. The starting pitching generally complied despite disappointing performances from newcomer Sean Manaea and a rehabbed Mike Clevinger. 50 starts between the two of them and only 1.4 WAR to show for it. Naturally, AJ Preller was fine with letting them walk to the Giants and White Sox, respectively. They may have left a couple key holes in the rotation but the Padres’ top three slots are spoken for with experienced veterans.
SDP Top 3 Starting Pitchers, 2022
| IP | ERA | FIP/xFIP | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darvish | 194.2 | 3.10 | 3.31/3.58 | 4.2 |
| Musgrove | 181.0 | 2.93 | 3.59/3.47 | 3.5 |
| Snell | 128.0 | 3.38 | 2.80/3.21 | 3.7 |
Blake Snell’s limited usage appears to be a thing now, as the lefty has only topped 130 innings once in his career. At least he was quite effective in 24 starts. When you boil it down, the Darvish-Musgrove-Snell trio accounted for 83.2% of the rotation’s WAR last season. I’d say these three are known quantities at this point in their careers with the exception of Blake Snell and reasonable workload expectations. It’s fairly safe to pencil in Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove for 180+ innings close to 3.0 WAR each. Snell could return to that valuation if he can get over the innings hump, though San Diego should have a hard time expecting 150+ innings given his history.
Options Are Good
Options are good, especially when you need to outlast a grindy season season battling the Dodgers. Bringing in another veteran via Michael Wacha helps solve some problems. He may be a mid-4.00s FIP guy at this point but having Wacha as a #4 starter is far from terrible. He’s good for 100+ innings and may be onto something mixing more sinkers into the repertoire. Hard contact shrunk back to that of his Cardinals days – I’m just not sure if that carries over to 2023. But Jason R.R. Martinez makes a great point in last week’s tweet right after the signing – the Padres could be setting up a six-man rotation to plow through a tough schedule to open the season.
Nick Martinez’ promotion back to MLB full-time starter becomes less critical, but still valuable, to this World Series contender. Giving up 23-year-old MacKenzie Gore for Juan Soto was a no-brainer but the side effect of thinning the Padres’ starting pitcher pool has ramifications. Martinez signed a three-year deal this offseason, reflecting the club’s intent for him to be a larger contributor after his return from Japan. In last year’s 10 starts, Nick posted a 5.16 FIP/4.36 xFIP punished by an inflated 11.7% walk rate. He was more effective in relief (6.4% BB, 3.72 FIP/3.73 xFIP) though that’s arguably not where the team needs him. If those control issues can be mitigated there is solid upside with the ground-ball centric righty.
More Arms Needed
Martinez isn’t the only veteran pitcher transitioning into a starter role. Longtime Met Seth Lugo headed west to seize his opportunity in the rotation after seven seasons in Queens. It makes sense for both parties after San Diego let underperforming starters Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger walk. The 33-year-old’s diverse repertoire features a filthy curve that helped him generate a lot of weak, ground ball contact. You can’t directly translate his mid-3.00s performance as a reliever into longer outings as a starter, unfortunately. So we’ll pencil Lugo and Martinez in for 100+ innings at low-4.00s FIP to be conservative.
The gap between San Diego’s Big 3 starters and the three behind them is significant. And it’s not like there is a wealth of rotation talent waiting anxiously in AAA. That’s the price you pay to seal those blockbuster trades of recent years. Adrian Morejon’s injury history – both Tommy John surgery and shoulder issues – tempers most of the 24-year-old’s expectations, and Jay Groome has yet to throw a pitch in the majors. That makes three issues holding San Diego’s rotation back from improving over 2022: 1) the Big 3 is aging and comes off of peak performances, 2) Martinez and Lugo are generally new to the role, and 3) very little depth behind them. I have them right around last year’s valuation with some room for upside. It’s far from terrible but quite a bit away from a championship level.
— Bullpen —
Robert Suarez’ unceremonious MLB debut did not deter the Padres from re-signing the setup man. Granted, Suarez managed to right the ship and produce 0.7 WAR in 47.2 innings. He joins a stout high-leverage group headlined by the formidable Josh Hader – yes, he still has it – and twelve-year MLB reliever Luis Garcia. The 36-year-old Garcia’s heavy sinker and filthy slider are keeping his career alive, seemingly out of nowhere. Scanning player projections shows you just how top-heavy this group is; somewhere around 75% of the entire bullpen’s valuation.
That’s not terrible given who makes up the high-leverage group. Unfortunately, bullpen depth figures to be a headwind, especially if Nick Martinez establishes himself as a viable #4 starter. Outside of the aforementioned trio, the reliance on aging fillers like Drew Pomeranz and Tim Hill leave a lot to be desired. Preller & Co. are likely to add another key reliever at some point before the trade deadline, but until then you have to assume the middle relief corps could be trouble for the Padres when starters fail to work into the 6th inning. For the purpose of season win total estimation, I have to mark down the bullpen’s contribution by 1-2 wins.
WAGER: Padres AL West Winner +140
San Francisco Giants 2023 Win Total: Open 78.5, Now 80
2022 Win Total: Under 85.5 (81-81 / Pythag: 83)
It’s easy to say in retrospect that the signs of San Francisco’s nose dive were there twelve months ago. Pythag regression plus another year of wear and tear on San Francisco’s 30-something position player corps were prime examples. Then the addition of Carlos Rodon and Alex Cobb tipped the scales a bit towards stabilization. Ultimately the wear and tear aspect overruled and the Giants sputtered into a just get us to game 162 second half. At least San Francisco’s steep decline from an amazing 107-win 2021 season paid off in the form of an Under 89.5 win total ticket. I’m a sliver lining kind of guy, what can I say?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- R. Perez (C)
- L. Jackson (RHP – RP)
- T. Rogers (LHP – RP)
- M. Haniger (OF)
- M. Conforto (OF)
- R. Stripling (RHP – SP)
- S. Manaea (LHP – SP)
- M. Haniger (OF)
Subtractions:
- E. Longoria (3B)
- B. Belt (1B)
- C. Rodon (LHP – SP)
- J. Garcia (LHP – RP)
- A. Young (LHP – RP)
- D. Leone (RHP – RP)
- Z. Littell (RHP – RP)
BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 78 – 80
— Position Players —
The dropoff between 2021’s shocking 107 wins and last year’s .500 record was hardly an issue created by their top-three rotation. Loss of power? Fielding woes? There’s the problems. The Giants dropped down to a league-worst defense and an average offense after considerable success in both areas, reflecting a variety of factors that swung back the other way. Aging – and the injuries that go with the territory – combined with key personnel losses like Buster Posey fast tracked these declines.
SFG Key Offensive & Defensive Metrics, 2021-2022
| R | HR | Slash Line | wRC+ | DRS | UZR/150 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 716 | 183 | .234/.315/.390 | 101 | -53 | -5.3 |
| 2021 | 804 | 241 | .249/.329/.440 | 107 | 32 | -0.5 |
The offseason was very intriguing from an outsider’s perspective. It came with several win some, lose some moments as both AL MVP Aaron Judge and top-tier shortstop Carlos Correa appeared to be heading to the Bay Area. Instead, Giants head honcho Farhan Zaidi brought in a pair of corner outfielders with their own injury baggage: Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger. Conforto’s shoulder injury cost him a contract in 2022 but the dude’s value as a good all-around player fits well into manager Gabe Kapler’s flexible, platoon-based lineup featuring guys like Joc Pederson, Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater, and fellow newcomer Mitch Haniger.
Signing Conforto and Haniger falls well short of the splash that Aaron Judge would have made. That’s an obvious statement. Fortunately, the newcomers stabilize the outfield defense and lineup better than last year’s hodgepodge. They’ll occupy enough innings in the field to keep Joc Pederson in the DH slot and mitigate his fielding woes. Plus Kapler is spared this year from having to stick the departed Darin Ruf in a corner to hide from the ball. San Francisco made enough roster changes to replace poor fielders with adequate ones while filling the gap that Pederson leaves after blowing up with a .274/.353/.521 line. Joc could be that guy, but the odds are slim enough where the Giants can’t afford to lean too heavily on those hopes.
An Infield Makeover
There’s a ton more variance with the infield. Without Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria, only shortstop Brandon Crawford remains as one of the Giants’ regular infielders. Familiar faces Wilmer Flores, Thairo Estrada, and LaMonte Wade, Jr. parlay their utility man resumes into more routine duties. Estrada struggled to get things off the ground last season as San Francisco’s everyday second baseman but has a decent bat for the position. Third baseman Evan Longoria’s absence isn’t quite as rough because he missed half of the 2022 season. The flip side is seeing whether Flores can handle third base satisfactorily. Regardless of his fielding, an extra 10% or so offensively should keep him in the lineup unless Casey Schmitt comes up to take his job this summer.
The secret has been out for a while how effective Kapler is with platooning his lineups. The personnel is in place with veteran J.D. Davis and David Villar who crushed lefties in his brief MLB debut. Good thing, because Wade couldn’t hit a left-handed pitcher if his life depended on it. I struggle to find where a drastic improvement in the hitting department will come from; maybe a small improvement that levels out San Francisco’s splits a bit. Joey Bart may not be Buster Posey 2.0 but is serviceable with defensive upside and the defense-first Roberto Perez backing him up. Much-improved fielding – notably in the outfield – is where this refreshed position player contingent can make sizable gains in 2023.
— Rotation —
Like many aspects with the Giants, there were too many questions that kept me from being bullish on last year’s 2022 rotation. One such question involved Carlos Rodon’s durability: could he repeat sub-3.00 quality across 150+ innings? Apparently the answer is yes. Rodon mustered a 2.25 FIP/2.91 xFIP over a career-high 178.0 innings with strong peripherals. A 4.56 K/BB ratio, 14.1% swinging strike rate, and top-shelf fastball/slider combo earned him a 14-8 record and a fat six-year contract with the Yankees.
Last season’s switcharoo successfully replaced Kevin Gausman with Carlos Rodon, actually netting the Giants value. Now Logan Webb gets the distinction of ace and the task of filling Rodon’s 6.2-WAR gap. Although I was incorrect in expecting Webb to lead 2022’s rotation, it wasn’t anything that Logan did wrong. Hell, he maintained a 4+ WAR value and cranked out 192.1 innings at 3.03 FIP/3.31 xFIP! The simple reality is that this club needs their 26-year-old ace to produce 190+ innings again to avoid resuming its position toward the bottom of the list for rotation innings pitched (783.0 in 2022). Logan and Carlos did their parts to soak up 370.1 innings, nearly half of the group’s entire workload.
Cobbling It Together
There are signs that Logan Webb might not be quite as effective this year. Going deeper in his starts helped produce 44 more innings, though the tradeoff may have been a 6% drop in strikeouts and a 3.31 xFIP that could be more indicative of the season ahead. Both he and Alex Cobb make their hay by keeping the ball on the ground even if their hard contact rates hover right around the 40.0% mark. They could be better served by a stronger infield defense, regardless, San Francisco is looking for 60 starts and 350+ innings from their top two starters once again.
Free agents Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling help maintain a veteran foundation while being limited in value. The former Oakland Athletic Manaea retooled as a sinker baller with high-3.00s production, not unlike Stripling’s baseline level. Ross offers a more diverse arsenal of pitches but is arguably better suited as a swingman considering that last year’s 134.1 innings was a career high. The Giants realistically need more volume out of these two. Whether they get it is another thing. Manaea, Stripling, and Alex Wood all fit the mold of 20-start, sub-4.00 FIP arms with a 1.5-2.0 WAR valuation. Former starters Anthony DeSclafani and Jakob Junis will get their chances to spot start and fill gaps, helping to keep this group afloat for the 162-game marathon. It’s not a bad rotation by any means, though they will struggle to replace the bulky of Carlos Rodon’s elite production of 2022.
— Bullpen —
I was wrong for the most part with last year’s rotation. When it came to the bullpen, however, the lack of multiple dependable high-leverage arms reduced this group to an average one. MLB’s fifth-highest workload was partially to blame; execution accounts for the rest. As noted above, Jakob Junis and a healthy Anthony DeSclafani will eat relief innings and spot start for those inevitable rotation vacancies throughout the season. Arms like those are often under-appreciated unless the conditions warrant them. If you couldn’t tell already, I think those conditions are likely to materialize again in 2023.
John Brebbia and Tyler Rogers are dependable sub-4.00 FIP, 60-70 inning guys that you can run out there just about every other night. That’s all well and good except that only having one lockdown guy limits how effective a bullpen can be over the long haul. Camilo Doval was the one last year though not necessarily elite. His walks were up and strikeouts down from his brief 2021 debut. That’s where Tyler Rogers’ twin brother Taylor comes to the rescue. Sure, Taylor comes off of an uncharacteristically subpar year but a deep dive reveals enough good news: 30.7 K% in another stifling season against left-handed hitters (1.50 FIP/2.44 xFIP). Pairing the sinker/slider southpaw with a powerful righty in Doval at the back end of the bullpen plays right into Kapler’s hands.
If the rotation can consistently go deeper into games, the Giants’ relief unit can be better. But that’s still an issue in my opinion. In addition to that overarching concern my go-to evaluators cast some doubt on Camilo Doval’s viability as closer. It’s more about Doval drifting into the 11-12 BB% range that could limit his growth. That is part of why I’m in the “business as usual” camp for San Francisco’s bullpen even though Taylor Rogers should prop up any lost value in the back end.
Arizona Diamondbacks 2023 Win Total: Open 76.5, Now 75.5
2022 Result: Over 65.5 (74-88 / Pythag: 77)
Once again, the Arizona Diamondbacks were one of the trickier teams for the market to gauge. They sailed over a modest preseason 65.5 win total one season removed from a huge 22-win miss in 2021. Although I did not have any futures money tied up with the D-backs, I have to eat crow for projecting them in the 59 to 67 range last offseason. My expectation for improved batting and fielding was really just half of the story. Pretty much all aspects of the team took a step forward, reflecting quite well in the win column. Don’t you think for a minute that the market did not notice; Arizona’s win total jumped by double digits this year.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- A. Chafin (LHP – RP)
- E. Longoria (3B)
- G. Moreno (C)
- L. Gurriel (OF)
- K. Lewis (OF)
- M. Castro (RHP – RP)
Subtractions:
- D. Varsho (OF/C)
- C. Hummel (C/OF)
- I. Kennedy (LHP – RP)
BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 73 – 78
— Position Players —
Arizona’s Position Player Prospect Pipeline (From 2022 Team Preview)
- C/OF Daulton Varsho – whether behind the plate or in the outfield, Varsho is a plus-DRS defender with good hitting skills
- SS Geraldo Perdomo – an excellent-in-the-field 22-year-old with great speed, though hitting is still a question mark
- OF Cooper Hummel – a switch hitter with corner outfielder abilities who slashed .353/.429/.575 in AAA last season
- CF Alek Thomas – 21-year-old with speed, power, and great fielding skills with a doubles-laden .369/.434/.658 slash line in AAA
Did Arizona’s newest crop of young talent live up to expectation? Daulton Varsho (.235/.302/.443) racked up the vast majority of his playing time in the outfield, and justifiably so. His 19 defensive runs saved across all three outfield positions are one way to say just how good of an athlete the 26-year-old is. Granted, Varsho’s multi-faceted game earned him a trip to Canada via trade to the Blue Jays this winter. Rookie shortstop Geraldo Perdomo held his own in the field but struggled at the plate. Although I flagged the kid with a question mark offensively, his .195/.285/.262 line and 24.0% hard hit rate fell well below that modest expectation. There’s clearly room for upside as Perdomo will settle for backup and rotational duty in this crowded infield behind an aging Nick Ahmed.
Cooper Hummel experienced offensive woes (.176/.274/.307) similar to Perdomo in his MLB debut. Like Varsho, Hummel was shipped out in a trade – not quite to Canada – for the Mariners’ former rising star Kyle Lewis. Finally, Alek Thomas flashed good leather in center field as a rookie but was unable to immediately translate his success at the plate in AAA to start the 2022 season. There is still plenty of optimism surrounding the 22-year-old after his .231/.275/.344 debut, though manager Torey Lovullo has indicated Thomas is on course to start the season in Reno to tighten up his plate discipline.
Lineup Infusions
Diamondbacks’ top prospect Corbin Carroll makes Alek Thomas’ return to AAA an easy decision. Although you can’t rely much on 115 plate appearances to paint a picture moving forward, the speedy 22-year-old was phenomenal in the field and carried his minor league success at the plate with him in his MLB debut. A little more plate discipline and power in what should be his first full MLB season gets him in the +10-20% range offensively. Plus Carroll can replace the lost fielding value that Varsho and Thomas provided in center last year.
Let’s go back to the Daulton Varsho trade with Toronto. In exchange, the D-backs reel in a pair of contributors representing both parts of Varsho’s positional flexibility. Outfielder Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. brings superb plate discipline at the expense of fielding. He’s somewhat of a known quantity at this point in his career – a good thing for this transitioning Arizona roster. Their outfield is young but talented with the likes of Carroll, Jake McCarthy, and Alek Thomas upon his return to the majors.
The gem of the Varsho transaction in terms of upside is 23-year-old catcher Gabriel Moreno. The athletic catcher joins centerfielder Corbin Carroll as two of the most lauded prospects across the entire landscape. Moreno was expendable to the Blue Jays given their tremendous depth at the catcher position. Arizona, on the other hand, desperately needed someone to take a healthy portion of Carson Kelly’s workload. Early indications are that Gabriel’s share will increase as the season progresses, providing around a 10% premium at the plate over Kelly.
Putting It All Together
Third baseman Evan Longoria enters his 16th – and perhaps final – season in a new uniform. Injuries limited the 37-year-old’s playing time with the Giants, making him a natural fit for DH. Arizona needs a boost against left-handed pitching and Evan helps a with that a little bit. Whether Longo’s acumen as a third baseman rubs off on Josh Rojas is yet to be seen. At least Rojas offers average offensive production, at minimum, blending into the plus bats that Christian Walker and Ketel Marte wield. Marte is still a bit of an enigma with his inconsistency from season to season, though Lovullo’s willingness to keep him at second base provides a better chance of reaching the 600 PA range barring substantial injury. Look for this lineup to tread water offensively compared to 2022; expect a modest decline defensively after a superb season in the field.
— Rotation —
Looking back at my 2022 Diamondbacks outlook again, the rotation exceeded expectation by several wins – part of why I was incorrectly lower on the team overall. Merrill Kelly’s 200.1-IP, sub-4.00 FIP effort gets most of the blame; Zac Gallen’s 184.0 IP, 3.05 FIP/3.31 xFIP breakout gets the rest. Every other starter who pitched 25 or more innings had a FIP of 4.83 or greater, including Madison Bumgarner and Zach Davies. Gallen gives his club the better chance to maintain his 4.3 WAR figure as opposed to Kelly, who should continue as a workhorse nonetheless.
The 2023 version has that “probably not worse than last year” vibe to it. MLB Trade Rumors’ dive into the D-backs’ rotation – as of January 5th, anyways – gives a thorough one-paragraph rundown of the top eight possibles. That was published a day after Zach Davies was re-signed to a one-year deal, all but solidifying a rerun of Arizona’s top four starters. Good with the top two, disappointing with the other pair as I’m seeing projections around 500 innings and upper-4.00 FIPs from MadBum and Davies. Talk about treading water in the deep end of the pool!
Wheel Of Fortune
The fifth and final spot on Arizona’s rotation is asking for one of their up-and-coming arms to grab ahold of. Two candidates, Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson, got their first tastes of the Big Leagues in September. The results were impressive to the tune of 0.8 WAR compressed into seven combined starts. Lovullo has good options between these top organizational prospects, which is a good thing considering he’ll need multiples to fill the #5 slot through the course of a long 162-game season.
As with most inexperienced starting pitchers in their early 20s, there will be bumps and bruises along the way. Nelson’s .156 BABIP calls us to pump the brakes a bit, and Jameson’s 56.1% ground ball rate/48.5% hard hit rate needs to shake out over a longer run. Between time at Reno and with the D-backs, we will see which of these two – if not both – are ready to assume full-time MLB duties in 2023. A little bit further behind in development lies strikeout artist Brandon Pfaadt, who is expected to make his MLB debut this season. Arizona has options with this trio in the current term in addition to a bright outlook beyond the 2023 season. As for the year ahead, more playing time for these young guns provides a small amount of upside and a stable floor for the rotation.
— Bullpen —
Arizona’s bullpen was one of the worst statistically last season in terms of ERA, FIP, and xFIP. So there’s no denying this area being one of the club’s weakest links. Veteran cornerstone closer Mark Melancon fell off a cliff, yielding 10 losses on his way to a 4.66 ERA, 4.20 FIP/4.63 xFIP season that signaled Father Time’s effects on the 37-year-old. Career-worst strikeout, ground ball, and hard hit rates led to his lowest WAR (0.1) in a decade. Melancon’s sudden decline opened the door for a late-season closer by committee approach that appears to be the path forward in 2023. Reuniting with the dependable left-hander Andrew Chafin adds another quality late-inning arm to the mix.
The likes of Kevin Ginkel and Joe Mantiply are prime candidates for the committee, though Mantiply’s sub-3.00 FIP, 69-appearance season may have shoved him to the front of the line. The deceptive sinker/slider/changeup lefty delivered tons of ground balls (53.5%) and a career-best 25.1% strikeout rate. Ginkel is more of the fire to Mantiply’s ice with a hard fastball/slider combo that produced similar strikeout numbers (24.2%), though across a 29.1-inning sample. Walks continue to be his weak spot but the D-backs expect Kevin to work out those kinks and do more heavy lifting alongside veteran relievers Miguel Castro and the aforementioned Mark Melancon. It can be improved while continuing as one of the league’s least accomplished relief units if managed well on a day-to-day basis. Arizona doesn’t need a dominant bullpen in 2023, just less implosions that lead to heartbreaking losses.
Colorado Rockies 2023 Win Total: Open 68.5, Now 66
2022 Result: Over 67.5 (68-94 / Pythag: 65)
Mr. Market really had these guys pegged last winter. I was on the pessimistic side of things without any noteworthy positive changes on the horizon. It ended up being one of those a little better here, not quite as good there type of seasons that led to Colorado falling below Arizona in the NL West basement. The 2023 rendition boasts a veteran lineup and a “transitioning” rotation, creating a complicated roster situation that could lead to, well, just about anything this season.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- P. Johnson (RHP – RP)
- B. Suter (LHP – RP)
- N. Jones (OF)
Subtractions:
- C. Joe (OF)
- S. Hilliard (OF)
- J. Iglesias (INF)
- C. Kuhl (RHP – SP)
- C. Estevez (RHP – RP)
- A. Colome (RHP – RP)
- J. Chacin (RHP – RP)
- G. Hampson (INF/OF)
- S. Oberg (RHP – RP)
BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 59 – 67
— Position Players —
Describing the Rockies’ lineup as “a bunch of guys thrown together for whatever reason” might me harsh, though the sentiment reflects more on the front office’s roster construction philosophy than it does the players themselves. It surely didn’t help the cause that last year’s prized free agent acquisition Kris Bryant was only active for a quarter of the season – right on the heels of losing Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado before that. Colorado’s hodgepodge of position players mustered a middling offense near the bottom of the list with respect to park-adjusted metrics. We’re talking about company like Miami, Cincinnati, Oakland, and Detroit. Clearly, more of the same will not get the Rockies out of the NL West cellar. Plus they were not built to run on the base paths, further limiting their effectiveness.
Kris Bryant’s presence in the lineup – not on the IL – means much more to the Rockies’ success compared to how the team mitigates the offseason losses of Jose Iglesias, Connor Joe, and Sam Hilliard. The collective 0.5 WAR produced by the outgoing trio hinged on Iglesias’ solid defense at shortstop as opposed to anything else. Now highly-touted prospect Ezequiel Tovar steps in at short after a super brief debut at the end of 2022. A league-average bat, speed on the base paths, and great fielding at this premium position will be a firm upgrade over the veteran Iglesias, though I’m sure manager Bud Black is prepared for the inevitable ups-and-downs that come with the territory of young talent. Barring significant setbacks, Tovar offers 1-2 additional wins of value over his predecessor.
Other Signs of Life
A healthy Kris Bryant should net another 1-2 wins to Colorado’s total. Outside of the 2020 season, his bat is fairly relatable around the +25% mark. That makes the math pretty easy: triple last season’s playing time and get triple the value. Joining Bryant in the outfield is the speedy centerfielder Yonathan Daza and grizzled veteran Randal Grichuk. Coors Field has a tough outfield to patrol and these three defenders are generally up to the task, though slightly below average in doing so.
Longtime outfielder Charlie Blackmon has all but stepped aside from fielding duties to serve as the regular DH, leaving the up-and-coming Sean Bouchard as the primary outfield substitution. He might be the only one of the bunch besides Kris Bryant to provide an above-average bat after adjusting for Coors Field’s generous park factors. Bouchard shined in his brief MLB debut and a decent year two should buy top prospect Zac Veen additional time to develop this spring before his call-up.
Colorado’s infield should once again prop up its league-average outfield group with phenomenal defense from third baseman Ryan McMahon and second baseman Brendan Rogers. Throw in the exciting 21-year-old shortstop Ezequiel Tovar and I expect a small amount of improvement for the Rockies defensively. About 10% of offensive upside lies with each of CJ Cron, Brendan Rogers, and Tovar as a modest upgrade over Jose Iglesias. I’m less confident in catcher Elias Diaz’ rebound on both sides of the plate, though Brian Serven adds plenty of defensive value if he takes a larger share of the backstop duties. This is far from an explosive position player corps but one that should add several percent offensively, with continued strength against left-handed pitching via a healthy Kris Bryant.
— Rotation —
Colorado finding itself in the bottom half of most pitching categories is no surprise. Coors Field is no joke. The departure of Jon Gray left a 25-start hole in the rotation filled by Chad Kuhl and his 5.26 FIP/4.78 xFIP. As a comparison, Gray slumped to that level only once in his Rockies career – the shortened 2020 season. Although Kuhl powered through 27 starts, there wasn’t much to compel the front office to resign the 30-year-old for another year in Denver. Jose Urena, on the other hand, apparently showed enough in his 17 starts with the club to earn a cheap one-year deal. Unfortunately, I haven’t seen a projection that gets Urena close to the 0.9 WAR he delivered for the Rockies last year.
As usual, the faithful trio of Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, and German Marquez will shoulder the load. There are compelling reasons to believe in a Marquez rebound. notably his career track record and last season’s second half turnaround. A 180+ inning, 4.00 FIP season is the sweet spot that essentially picks up Urena’s slack and then some. Lefty Kyle Freeland’s return to the 30-start club helped prop up the 2022 rotation. Whether that 4.21 FIP performance predicts a return to his freakish 2018 form is debatable though. I wouldn’t bet on it, especially after the ground ball pitcher’s hard hit rate popped to a career high and ground ball rate continued slumping.
Bright Spots on the Horizon?
Antonio Senzatela’s return to action could not come soon enough. The recovery window from September 2022 ACL surgery has him slated to miss the first month or two of the season, apparently necessitating a stopgap move to acquire Connor Seabold from the Red Sox. It’s tough to imagine Seabold being much of a lift after a rocky debut in the Boston rotation. In five starts, he held opponents to less than 4 runs just once. Even if we’re looking at Senzatela as a low-to-mid 4.00s durable starter, his return still means a lot to the Rockies. Roughly speaking, each month spent on the IL costs the club about 0.2 wins if Seabold struggles to find a foothold. That may not sound like much but every little bit counts for a 68-win team.
Speaking of footholds, will Austin Gomber ever find his in Denver? The key return in the Nolan Arenado trade – with key being a relative term – has improved his command in the two years with the Rockies, though the lefty has failed to launch as evidenced by his $1.65M arb number. Homegrown talent Ryan Feltner is in a similar boat except that the 26-year-old doesn’t carry the same distinction as being the guy they traded Arenado for. Maybe Ryan Rolison will begin to make his mark at the MLB level this fall and push his way into the 2024 rotation. When it comes to this season, however, the pivot point is Antonio Senzatela. There is very little upside with this group but a 20+ start season from Antonio helps keep them from being much worse than 2022.
— Bullpen —
37-year-old Daniel Bard notching a career season as the Rockies closer should raise a lot of eyebrows. Not only was Bard’s two-seamer the hardest fastball he’s put out, the slider was damn good too. And that is far from easy to pull off when half of your games are played in Denver. Daniel’s performance locked down the MLB’s sixth-most saves (34) compared to only 3 blown attempts. Who would have thought that pairing tons of ground balls (51.7%) with a 28.2% strikeout rate could work wonders at Coors Field? I’m not the only guy to raise concerns with his age and .221 BABIP though.
Losing Tyler Kinley for a couple months season stings a bit. Kinley was another high-K, low-BB reliever alongside Daniel Bard until being shelved in July for flexor tendon surgery. The good news, however, revolves around a trio of veteran relievers who could end up as the bullpen’s unsung heroes. Brent Suter was jettisoned by the Brewers after the suddenly falling off. Plus Colorado gained a pair of former Padres to be part of the keeping things glued together approach. Pierce Johnson’s near-Tommy John injury kept him out for most of 2022 and Dinelson Lamet almost seems like an afterthought at this point in his career. Any sort of 60-inning, 0.5-WAR contribution from these three helps maintain some decency but the Bard and Kinley issues loom large. Think of it this way: these three veterans are filling the replacement-level roles of Robert Stephenson, Ashton Goudeau, and Jhoulys Chacin.
2023 NL West Projected Standings
- San Diego Padres (97-65)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69)
- San Francisco Giants (79-83)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (75-87)
- Colorado Rockies (62-100)
Half Way Home
That’s three division previews in the books and the other half on deck. The 2023 MLB season is about a month away so be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com to catch our AL Central and NL Central previews. Don’t want to miss the next three? Follow us on Twitter, or subscribe below for email notifications:
