We’ve got an extra NASCAR feature this week because the matchups for Sunday’s Brickyard 400 came out a day after we prepared our race preview. This is far from the most entertaining race of the season, but if there’s an opportunity to find an edge we’ll back it with our bankroll. Although practice sessions don’t start until Saturday, we’ve already moved on a couple early plays at Indy.
There is no shortage of playoff implications this weekend, as this is the final regular-season race. Indy will seal the playoff fates of two more drivers on the Cup Series circuit. The top 14 are effectively locked in, so it’s the guys in positions 15 through 18 that face an all-or-nothing scenario this Sunday. In reality, this is a “bet it and forget it” race with the NFL in full force during the race.
Plus-Money Against William Byron
Our early plays at Indy focus on a guy we called out in Wednesday’s race preview: William Byron. He was the pole sitter at Darlington last week and could not convert that into a respectable finish…
William Bryon snookered us last week when he took the pole at Darlington. Are we holding a grudge after his 21st-place finish? Nope. But we also recognize that Byron may have settled back into a phase of mediocrity. And that is something you can profit from. The young pilot of the #24 Chevy has raced at IMS only once, logging a 19th place finish. Expect a repeat this year and look for opportunities to wheel against him with guys like Newman and Menard.
It’s not that we think Byron is going to be terrible this weekend, we just expect him to be average. When our go-to NASCAR sportsbook account opened these matchups we got exactly what we were looking for: face-offs with Ryan Newman and Paul Menard against William Byron. Since they happen to be at plus-prices, we don’t need a disastrous performance from Byron to earn some scratch from this fade.
Ryan Newman (+125) over William Byron
Other than getting knocked out of the 2016 Brickyard 400, Ryan Newman has been consistent at IMS throughout his Stewart-Haas and RCR days. Newman is right on the edge of the playoff line and needs to beat out Bowyer or Suarez to make it into the postseason…
Newman disappointed at Darlington and Watkins Glen but finished no worse than 14th in five of his last seven races. Regardless, The Brickyard has always been one of his better tracks. Ryan should log a finish right around 10th place on Sunday, putting him in good position to top Byron.
Paul Menard (+125) over William Byron
Menard isn’t a guy you’ve heard us speak about much since we started covering our NASCAR handicapping on BetCrushers.com. At the 19th position in the season standings, he’s going to need a win to get his way into the playoffs. Does this materially change the way we foresee his finish Sunday evening? Not at all.
The #21 Ford team has justified their 19th position in the standings with, well, a bunch of finishes in the mid-teens. That’s what Paul Menard does though. He also does better than his usual at Indy’s 2.5-mile oval, making him a good candidate to take plus-money in a coin-flip situation against Byron. There’s no sense in overextending the bankroll before the drivers take the track, but we wanted to lock these plays in specifically.
The Weekend Schedule
This pair of matchups against Byron finalizes our early plays at Indy, and now it’s on to the weekend. We’ll be monitoring the dual practice sessions on Saturday to refine our views on the key drivers we previously identified. There is the inevitable overlooked guy that often comes into view after practices. Analysis of all that and more can be found in Sunday morning’s pre-race final breakdown on BetCrushers.com.
