Previous Week Plays – 2-4
Season Record – 26-24-1
Week 10 Recap:
All that most people really care about is what their bankroll looks like when it comes to sports betting. The BetCrushers are no different in that regard, except when you’ve been betting as long as we have, you recognize that at times, the handicapping is solid, and the result just doesn’t get home. Our record in week 11 was a disappointing 2-4, but the correct sides were really flipped and should have worked out to a 4-2 mark. No one wants to hear about what-ifs though, so let’s just give a quick recap. The wins were mostly sound, starting with the first half cover of the Chiefs over the Jaguars. They had a healthy early lead that was never in doubt in the first half. The first half handicap worked out well as the Jags were right around the full game number. Our teaser bet hit for the second week in a row as the 49ers were able to get it done, and the Seahawks also stayed within the number, although that one was a little shakier. Our handicap of the Titans and Broncos game was pretty solid, however a first half turnover doomed the play, as that one needed to be a full game wager. The Cowboys some how not only gave up a cover they should have gotten, but lost outright to the Packers in Lambeau. In Miami, the Dolphins offense continued their hot streak and busted our under play. And for the second week in a row we got burned playing the Eagles in the first half, as the Commanders battled them hard for sixty minutes, en route to handing Philadelphia their first loss of the season. Disappointing to say the least, hoping for some better outcomes in the upcoming weekend.
Week 11 Picks:
For the first time in the 2022 NFL season our bets seem to fit the profile of traditional sharp NFL betting. Of course it remains to be seen if that will lead to profit, but we’re playing things pretty straightforward and going with what used to be consistently successful. That means playing games against the spread and taking home underdogs. The only variation is a first half wager against the spread in the game with the largest margin of expected difference of the weekend. The only other anomaly is playing both a spread and a total in an AFC rivalry game. A trio of divisional matchups, and one inter-conference contest. Five wagers in total, and needing a winning weekend to get out of a mediocre to poor slump.
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
vs. 
New York Jets (6-3) vs. New England Patriots (5-4)
Sunday November 20th
1:00pm
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, MA
New England Patriots -3 (-110)
Over/Under 38 (-110)
In a division with each team entering week 11 with a winning record, the Jets and the Patriots face off looking to stay near the top of the pack in the AFC East. The Patriots have owned the Jets over the last decade, however a rejuvenated New York squad under head coach Robert Saleh. Both quarterbacks have had their share of ups and downs to begin their young careers. Will the Patriots continue their dominance, or have the Jets leapfrogged them?
Every so often the New York Jets, and specifically quarterback Zach Wilson put some really nice stuff on tape. The problem has been, they can’t seem to do that consistently, and well against the Patriots it’s been pretty bad. Zach Wilson isn’t the first young quarterback to struggle against a New England defense, and eventually he and the team may figure things out, but it’ll be a challenge to have that happen this week. In their last 4 games, the Jets have put up 17, 13, 6 and 14 points dating back to 2021. Wilson has a passer rating of 50.5 with 7 interceptions in that span, so clearly the scheme is impacting his decision-making. The Jets had just found something working with their running game with rookie Breece Hall, but it looks a lot more pedestrian with Michael Carter and James Robinson taking the carries. Even though the Patriots can allow some yards on the ground, it’s more often than not the zone shells they’re running, so they’re often ok with it. In terms of the passing game, this is where the Patriots can really succeed against this New York offense. New England has racked up 32 sacks, and generate pressures in a variety of ways. Their secondary is a great mix of veteran experience, and talented youngsters, and really nothing the Jets can throw at them at the receiver position will scare them.
Flipping sides, there really isn’t a ton that the Patriots are going to attack the Jets with that will scare their very stout defense either. The Patriots are going to try to establish Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris and lean on them to stay ahead of the chains. The Jets have been pretty good slowing down the run, so it’s a bit of a battle of strength versus strength here. You could argue who won the battle in their first matchup, as the Pats grinded out 100 yards rushing, but on a lot of attempts, and Mac Jones didn’t hit 200 yards passing. The big difference though, was only one turnover for Jones, as opposed to three for Wilson. At some point in the game, Jones is going to have to make some plays throwing and that won’t be easy. The Jets cornerbacks are well discussed, and have played good football most of the season. Their defensive line is physical, and their linebackers are fast. When they played the first time, Jones did a nice job of taking what the defense gave him, which was some checkdown passes and screens. The Jets will make some adjustments to shore that up, so can Jakobi Meyers or someone else for the Patriots win one on one on the outside? Or what other tricks might the Patriots have up their sleeve to move the football? If you’re a fan of old school football, the battle between the Patriots offensive line and the Jets defensive line is going to be an absolute slugfest.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Patriots are 11-0 vs. the Jets in their last 11 games in New England
– The Jets are 0-10 straight up vs. the Patriots in their last 10 games
These two teams have a lot of similarities when you break down their film and some statistics. Young quarterbacks who can make some plays, and also make some mistakes. Tough defenses, and offenses built on power running games, with marginal wide receivers. This has the making of a physical battle with a lot of hard tackling, taking advantage of field position, and protecting the football. It seems almost a certainty that whoever wins the turnover battle will come away with the victory in this game. It’s clear this is the best Jets team we’ve seen in quite some time, and they’re clearly on an upswing in the league. With that being said, there is absolutely something to the fact that the Patriots have beaten up on them with relative ease during Bill Belichick’s tenure. Because we are looking so closely at the turnover battle, the Patriots definitely seem like the right side of the game. Zach Wilson has a clear uphill battle against this Patriots defense playing on the road. Until Wilson and the Jets prove they can learn how to overcome the Patriots defense, we’re going to lay the points with the home team.
BetCrushers Take: New England Patriots -3
Patriots 21, Jets 16
Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens
vs. 
Carolina Panthers (3-7) vs. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
Sunday November 20th
1:00pm
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Baltimore Ranves -13 (-110)
Over/Under 41 (-110)
The Ravens welcome an unfamiliar opponent to M&T Bank Stadium, when the Carolina Panthers visit Baltimore in the early window. Baker Mayfield will be the starting quarterback for Carolina, and has the unenviable task of taking on a Ravens team getting healthy at the right time. A cold and windy day is projected, which means the passing games might be even less of a factor than they would have been to begin with.
Most people won’t classify the Carolina Panthers offense as an intimdating or explosive unit, and we’re not going to do that either. We will however make notice that this team has shown some bursts of offense, centered around new starting running back D’Onta Foreman. Since shipping Christian McCaffrey off to the west coast, Foreman has been a workhorse and afforded the wide receivers for Carolina some extra room to work. That’s good news for Baker Mayfield, who for the time being has his starting job back as quarterback. Mayfield has been statistically one of the worst quarterbacks in the league during his starts, and a trip to Baltimore probably isn’t going to fix that. The plus side for Mayfield is he has faced this defense before, and even had some success against it. Of course that was with an elite offensive line and Nick Chubb to hand the ball to. The Panthers offensive line is improving through young players like Ikem Ekwonu, who seems to be taking some steps to figuring the game out, but this group is still a work in progress. The Ravens defense on the other hand, is starting to look more like what we’re used to seeing out of a Baltimore defense. Calais Campbell is still playing at a high level, and should and can occupy blockers on the interior, and make plays. More importantly, he can keep new additions like Jason Pierre-Paul and Roquan Smith clean, and able to really make plays. Add the ageless Justin Houston into the mix, and there’s got to be something in the water in Baltimore. As their run defense has improved, it should make things tougher for Foreman, despite his physical running style. The Panthers do have some speed at the wide receiver position, but Mayfield’s probably not going to take a lot of shots at Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey. If Foreman can’t keep the Panthers ahead of the chains, big mistakes could be made by this offense, which could doom them in the end.
Some rare good news on the injury front for the Ravens, as it looks like tight end Mark Andrews, and running back Gus Edwards will be available in some capacity for this contest. In fact, with the exception of speedy receiver Rashod Bateman, they’re mostly at full strength against the Panthers defense. Carolina hasn’t fared well stopping the run this season, and they’ll be without DT Matt Ioannidis for this one. Gus Edwards and Kenyan Drake seem to really push each other and feed off each other, so look for some nice games from both on Sunday. As always, it’s going to be Lamar Jackson who makes the difference as a runner, either with actual yards, or with the threat of taking off. With Jeremy Chinn on IR in the Panthers secondary, Jackson should be able to feast as a runner, or by finding his other open receivers. When Jackson has looked vulnerable, teams have been able to generate pressure with their front four, and either get him down, or keep him inside the pocket. The Panthers have been one of the worst teams at generating pressure, despite having Brian Burns as a pass rusher. Giving Jackson a lot of time to scan the field and make decisions to throw or run is not a great proposition for an opposing defense.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the AFC
– The Panthers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games
– The Panthers are 0-8 straight up in their last 8 road games
– The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the NFC
We’re not huge into trends as a determining factor of our handicapping, however there statistics above really lead to our decision to wager on this game. Teams that don’t face or see Lamar Jackson very often really seem to struggle with figuring out how to defend him. That has to factor in to the fact that the Ravens have done so well against the NFC since Jackson has been in Baltimore. You also have to factor in the Panthers haven’t won on the road this season, and conversely have really struggled against the AFC and it looks like a total mismatch. Taking it a step further, the Ravens are definitely headed in the right direction, and even though they’re thin at wide receiver, they’re about as healthy as they’ve been in a long time. Their mid-season additions on defense should also serve them well both in this game and the remainder of the season. There’s really little reason this game should end up close, but with such a big number, we’ll opt for a first half cover instead.
BetCrushers Take: Baltimore Ravens – First Half -6.5
Ravens 30, Panthers 16 (First Half – Ravens 17, Panthers 6)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
vs. 
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)
Sunday November 20th
4:25pm
Acrisure Stadium – Pittsburgh, PA
Cincinnati Bengals -4 (-105)
Over/Under 41 (-110)
The rivalry between the Bengals and Steelers has quietly become one of the more aggressive in the NFL over the past decade or two. Feel free to use the term cliche, but you pretty much can throw the records out when these two teams face each other. The Bengals are fresh off a bye, while the Steelers completed a home win against the struggling Saints a week ago. After a classic battle in week one between these two teams, we could be setup for another tightly contested football game.
The first week of missing Ja’Marr Chase for the Cincinnati Bengals offense made things look really dire. They got that corrected quickly, as they leaned on Joe Mixon for a career performance with the running game. It’s hard to know for sure if that was due to Mixon, the Bengals offensive line, or the ineptitude of their opponent in that game. What we do know is the Steelers have fixed what was a horrendous rush defense from a season ago as having some needed depth has really helped them. Don’t expect another monster day from Mixon and the Bengals offensive line, as this definitely has more of a 20 carries for 60 yards type of possibility for the Bengals running back. If that’s the case, there will be a lot of pressure on Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing game. Pressure is not something the Steelers have generated much of this season, but of course that was mostly without their top player in T.J. Watt. Their defense looks entirely different with him in there, and against La’el Collins, who has struggled in his first season in Cincinnati, Watt could once again be a difference-maker. The Steelers secondary isn’t one of the best in the league, particularly if they’re missing Minkah Fitzpatrick, which is looking more and more like that will be the case. However, defending the Bengals passing game is a lot easier with two strong receivers, rather than the three they’d have with Chase on the field.
The verdict is still out on young Kenny Pickett in terms of whether he can be a franchise guy for the Steelers moving forward. Beating the Bengals would be a nice feather in his cap, and he has a chance to play well in this game. For starters, the Steelers ran the ball effectively last week, for really the first time all season behind Najee Harris. They could have some success again as this Bengals defense really misses defensive tackle D.J. Reader in the middle as their run stuffer. A good running game is always a great friend to a young QB. What might help even more is the Bengals simply cannot get pressure on opposing throwers outside of Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard. Teams have figured out a bit that if they can chip on those two, there’s no interior pressure whatsoever. Pickett should have some clean pockets if he has the confidence to step up and throw the football. The trade of Chase Claypool has thrust Diontae Johnson and George Pickens into even bigger roles, and that’s a good thing for Pittsburgh. With Chidobe Awuzie out for the season for Cincinnati, both receivers have very winnable matchups versus Cam Taylor-Britt, and the formerly benched Eli Apple. As is almost always the case with a rookie quarterback, will Pickett be able to find the balance between aggressive throws down the field, and not making mistakes and turning the ball over?
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone under in 4 of the last 5 games for the Steelers
– The total has gone under in 7 of the last 8 home games for the Steelers
– The total has gone under in 6 of the last 9 games between the Bengals and Steelers
– The Bengals are 1-5 straight up in their last 6 road games vs. the Steelers
– The total has gone under in 8 of the last 10 road games for the Bengals
Of all of the wagers this week, this one is probably the most nerve-wracking on both bets for one simple reason. When the Bengals offense is “on”, they’re absolutely “on”. What we’re banking on here is that in a rivalry road game, with the Bengals missing their top wideout, and the Steelers with their best defensive player back it they won’t light things up. These teams slugged out a pretty classic game to open the season, and even though the Bengals are substantially better than the Steelers, history tells us this should be another close game. Much has been made about the Steelers record with and without T.J. Watt in their lineup, and they just have a different attitude when he’s out there. The Bengals struggled against the Browns on the road just a few weeks ago, before lighting things up at home. They’ll probably find a way to get the win, but we’re counting on it not being easy. Public tickets seem to be on the Bengals, with sharp money on the Steelers. It’s never terrible being on that side of the wager.
BetCrushers Take: Pittsburgh Steelers +4 / Total – Under 41
Bengals 20, Steelers 17
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
Sunday November 20th
8:20pm
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Kansas City Chiefs -5 (-110)
Over/Under 52.5 (-110)
Fans will be treated to another installment in the AFC West rivalry of big name quarterbacks when Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert square off in Hollywood. Despite being decimated with injuries, the Chargers have remained mostly competitive in the crowded AFC conference. The Chiefs meanwhile, just continue rolling along at the top of the conference and looking to create some separation in the division. The Chargers have been as competitive versus the Chiefs as any team in the league over the past couple of seasons, but do they have enough to pull off the upset Sunday night?
If there’s one thing you can count on in the NFL, it’s that Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are going to find ways to score points week in and week out. They’ll have to do so this week without top wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman, as both will miss the game with injuries. Before you start feeling sorry for the Chiefs, remember they signed Kadarius Toney a couple of weeks ago, and he’s the best of the bunch from a pure talent standpoint. This will force him into an immediate role, along with rookie Skyy Moore, especially if Marquez Valdes-Scantling can’t go, as he’s also questionable. Chances are, Andy Reid looks at getting these other playmakers involved as a fun challenge that he gladly accepts. It shouldn’t be too difficult for Patrick Mahomes, as he’s used to making guys like Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson look like capable wide receivers in this league. Spoiler alert, they’re really not. If we’re being really honest here, the Chiefs would do well to not even throw the ball a whole lot in this game against the Chargers. Los Angeles continues to be shredded on the ground, giving up a whopping 5.4 yards per carry, and the interior of their defensive line has four players on injured reserve. It’s a perfect opportunity to get rookie Isaiah Pacheco more work, coming off of his most productive game of the season a week ago. The biggest challenge of the game on offense for the Chiefs, is whether or not Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will actually run the football consistently? Things aren’t much better for the Chargers against the pass, as missing Joey Bosa also limits their one-two punch with Khalil Mack getting after the QB. They’ll face the usual dilemma of bring pressure and have Mahomes slice them up, or sit back and let him pick apart a zone?
The good news for the Los Angeles Chargers offense is they might have a complete team to put out on the field Sunday night. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Gerald Everett are all trending towards playing in this game, which would make an enormous impact on their ability to pull off an upset. Critics have been a little down on quarterback Justin Herbert this season, but what can you really expect when he’s been down his left tackle, and is throwing to third and fourth wideouts? Add in the fact the Chargers can’t really run the ball effectively, and that puts a whole lot on the shoulders of Herbert. If he has his full arsenal of weapons, this offense should look both more explosive, and be able to sustain more drives, keeping Mahomes and company off of the field. The Chargers really have a couple things they’ll need to do to be competitive. First, at least have some threat of a running game, to keep Herbert from being under constant pressure. And second, Herbert needs to be on his game pre-snap to determine where the rush is coming from. If that happens, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have the ability to get open and make some plays. With the Chargers defense unlikely to slow down the Chiefs offense, LA is going to need to outscore Kansas City to win this game. That’s going to mean an extremely efficient offense, particularly in the red zone and on third and fourth downs.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Chargers
– The Chargers are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games
Hold your breath anytime you’re fading Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, mostly because they can put up 40 points in any given game. That holds true against a Chargers team that is thin on the defensive line and in the secondary. It’s important to remember though, that the Chiefs have actually not been one of the better teams against the spread this season. They have the talent to replace JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman, however can they be instantly synced up with Patrick Mahomes? Or maybe more importantly, can Andy Reid stay patient with a running game that should be able to shred the Chargers defense? Our wager on this game is based on two main factors. First, the Chargers offense looks as though it should be as stocked as it’s been since week two of the season, if Keenan Allen and Mike Williams can go, which it looks like they will. Beyond that, no team has battled the Chiefs as well as the Chargers have since Justin Herbert has been the quarterback. In a divisional prime time showdown, we’re thinking the Chargers scrap and claw their way to a close football game. Let’s see if their defense can hold up?
