Previous Week Plays – 2-3
Season Record – 23-18-1
Week 8 Recap:
Our nice season long profit has been slowly bleeding out over the past three weeks with .500 and below marks on those respective weeks. Week eight yielded a 2-3 mark with our posted plays. The BetCrushers aren’t about making excuses when we lose, but there is one thing we want to point out before we recap the picks. The injury report crushed our sides in basically every single game. That’s the difficult piece of trying to Let’s start with the good news first. Our favorite play of not only the week, but the entire season hit fairly easily as the 49ers dismantled the Rams, particularly in the second half. We were also able continue our streak of winning first half wagers as the Tennessee Titans held down the Texans despite playing with their backup quarterback. On the flip side, holding down the Texans killed our over bet for the game. Speaking of over bets, one of the worst we’ve had this season was taking the over in the Raiders and Saints game. The Saints held up their end of the bargain on offense, but the Raiders were inexplicably shutout. In fact, it took them until the end of the game to even get the ball into Saints territory. That was an ugly loss. The “coulda-woulda-shoulda” game was the Arizona Cardinals, who had multiple opportunities to at least stay within the number as an underdog. Ultimately, they fell to the Vikings as a loss is a loss.
Week 9 Picks:
The combination of a smaller slate, some stale numbers, and just not a lot that we love has this as our thinnest slate of the weekend. We started the week off with a Thursday Night Football selection where we cherry-picked the Eagles -7 on a first half play. That didn’t work out as a late TD for the surprising Texans ruined what would have at least been a push. Starting 0-1 isn’t ideal, but instead of chasing, we’re just adding two more selections. We’re riding with a team total on a road squad, and we’re back to the teaser market with a pair of home teams after a one week pause. The roughly mid-point of the NFL season seems like a good time for a bit of a breather, so let’s just call it thin to win in week number nine if we can manage to hit both of these.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Commanders
vs. 
Minnesota Vikings (6-1) vs. Washington Commanders (4-4)
Sunday November 6th
1:00pm
FedEx Field – Landover, MD
Minnesota Vikings -3.5 (-105)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)
An intriguing NFC contest in Washington where the suddenly fired up Commanders host the red-hot Minnesota Vikings in Landover. Quarterback Kirk Cousins returns to his first team still looking to silence critics and prove again that he’s deserving of the mega-deal the Vikings gave him in 2018. In Washington, the spark has seemingly been fueled by the re-insertion of Taylor Heinecke as their signal-caller, and an improving defense. The Commanders need a win to try to keep pace in a bunched up NFC East, but do they have enough to slow down the Vikings, or outscore them?
The Minnesota Vikings offense already had some of the better playmakers in the league, and they now boast a top 5 or so tight end with the addition of T.J. Hockenson. The talented receiving threat probably won’t be too involved in the game plan in his first week with his new team, and that shouldn’t matter much. Despite a couple of solid recent performances on defense for the Washington Commanders, this team struggles to top opposing passers. Enter Kirk Cousins, who despite continued lack of respect, just continues to win football games. Cousins hasn’t looked elite by top tier quarterback standards, but he has made plays when they’ve needed to be made all season. As always, the Vikings could taper their needs of Cousins if they’re able to successfully run the football. Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison have come on a little in recent weeks, and will be able to continue that trend against a pretty soft Washington front. Despite having Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen on the interior of their line, this group can get pushed backwards at times. Throw in the fact starting linebackers David Mayo and Cole Holcomb are both very questionable to play, and Cook could break off some big runs. Where the Vikings really have an opportunity, is on the outside with receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Both should be able to win regularly versus Benjamin St.-Juste, and Kendall Fuller down the field. The Commanders have gotten good play from their safety tandem of Kamren Curl and Bobby McCain, however will they need to step up to support against the run, or help in coverage? It truly is a catch-22 situation for the talented safeties.
The Carson Wentz experiment in Washington may end up ending a lot quicker than the team probably expected when they brought him as quarterback. Since Taylor Heinecke stepped in for the injured Wentz, this team looks not only more stable, they seem a lot more inspired. That starts with their top player, wide receiver Terry McLaurin, who has put together back-to-back impressive performances. McLaurin should be able to continue that trend as the Vikings have been one of the worst teams defending the pass in the entire league. Despite a veteran secondary, Minnesota routinely has missed assignments and allowed big plays to opposing receivers. The speed of McLaurin and Curtis Samuel should challenge this group, and Heinecke can take advantage of these if he has time in the pocket. That’s the big question here as the Vikings have been good at generating pressure, and the Commanders offensive line has not been great this season. Realistically, Heinecke is probably going to have to carry the load throwing the football as the trio of Brian Robinson, Jr., Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic have been inconsistent, at best. Against a pretty stout run defense, headed by Dalvin Tomlinson and newly acquired Harrison Phillips and Jordan Hicks, running will be tough. In order for the Commanders to get some points on the board, they’re going to need to hit some big plays.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games for the Vikings
– The total has gone over in 10 of the last 14 road games for the Vikings
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 7 games between the Vikings and Washington
This seems like a little bit of a tough spot for the Minnesota Vikings. They’ve got a big matchup in a week with the Buffalo Bills, and the Commanders are making a push behind Taylor Heinecke towards not only respectability, but also the playoffs. Initially, we liked the Vikings, but the more we delved into this matchup, we cooled things down quite a bit. This is mainly due to Heinecke’s fiery play, and the receivers for Washington. Conversely, there’s a few things we really like for Minnesota in this football game. All of those things are on the offensive side of the ball. First, it seems like the running game is really getting going, and Dalvin Cook could feast if the Commanders drop their safeties and or their linebackers are out. Second, the receivers for the Vikings have clear matchup advantages (as they often do) against the corners for Washington. Finally, there’s that whole “revenge” angle as Kirk Cousins is going back to the team that basically let him go four years ago. Normally, that factor is played out and overrated, but this one seems to have some legitimacy. Because we’re not certain on the side, we’re going to play the Vikings team total, based on the three factors we just listed. For an offense like the Vikings, anytime there’s a number under 24, it seems like something that has to be considered. Especially in this case, where you can get this for even money or -105 at several books.
BetCrushers Take: Minnesota Vikings – Team Total – Over 23.5
Vikings 27, Commanders 21
Teaser Bet
Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Carolina Panthers (4-4) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-4)
Sunday November 6th
1:00pm
Paycor Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
Green Bay Packers (3-5) vs. Detroit Lions (1-6)
Sunday November 6th
1:00pm
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-115)
Over/Under 49.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Bengals -1.5 and Lions +9.5
The Cincinnati Bengals head back home after a thorough beating at the hands of the Cleveland Browns on Halloween night. The team looked pretty bad on offense, defense and special teams, as they played without star wideout Ja’Marr Chase for the first time this season. They’ll face a Panthers team coming off of a heartbreaking defeat against their division rivals in Atlanta. In Detroit, the Lions will be playing for the first time without one of their top weapons, after trading away T.J. Hockenson to the Vikings. They face a different divisional opponent as the struggling Green Bay Packers limp into Motown. Which two of these four teams can get back on the winning track in week nine?
P.J. Walker will be getting another start for the Carolina Panthers, and is trying to cement himself as the starter. He’s made some big plays with his athleticism, and given the Panthers a more aggressive opportunity than Baker Mayfield had. He has a tough assignment going into Cincinnati and facing the pass rushing combo of Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard. Pay close attention how far upfield they get, as Walker has the escapability to step up and take off if the edges are not contained. The good news for the Panthers is how much better their offensive line has played after a rough start to the season. They’ll look to again control the line of scrimmage and lean on physical running back D’Onta Foreman to work the clock and move the chains. The Bengals have been average in terms of stopping the run as they’re missing run-stuffer D.J Reader who is still on injured reserve. The most interesting matchup on that side of the ball in this game is whether or not the Panthers can throw the ball effectively. It’s been a struggle all season, but Walker has taken some shots and worked to get the ball to D.J. Moore with some success. It should help that Bengals starting CB Chidobe Awuzie is out for the season, and Mike Hilton may not go in this game either. The Bengals do get Eli Apple back, however he struggled this season when he’s been in the lineup. The Panthers just don’t seem to be the type of team that can take advantage of those injuries in the secondary. For the Bengals, it’s tough to know if their offense is as bad as it looked against Cleveland minus Ja’Marr Chase, or if it was just a bad one-time performance? Our guess is it’s somewhere in the middle as Joe Burrow should find his footing a bit returning home. What should help is the lack of a pass rush the Panthers have shown with just a dozen sacks on the year, ranking 30th in that department. The much beleaguered offensive line of the Bengals needs to stand up in this game and give Burrow the time he needs to throw. When healthy, the Panthers cornerbacks can play, but both Jaycee Horn and Donte Jackson have been hobbled with injuries. What’s really hurt the Panthers is the absence of Jeremy Chinn at safety, who is the playmaker of the defense. It will likely be tough sledding for running back Joe Mixon again on the ground against Carolina, so someone is going to have to make some plays for Cincinnati as a receiver. Mixon could factor in there, and Hayden Hurst could have a big game as well. It’s still unclear exactly how long Chase will be out for the Bengals, and the team really needs Tee Higgins to step up in his absence.
Raise your hand if someone had told you a couple of years ago that the offense for the Detroit Lions with Jared Goff at quarterback would be superior to the offense for the Green Bay Packers behind Aaron Rodgers. Life moves pretty fast, and it appears the winding down of Aaron Rodgers career might be coming towards us faster than we may have thought. Rodgers is nursing a bit of a hand issue, and that hasn’t helped in his effort to build some rapport with his less than spectacular receiving group. Green Bay hopes to get Allen Lazard back, as Rodgers desperately needs an option he can trust to throw the ball too. We watched the Packers basically run out of necessity a week ago, and we’re going to see that again this week, whether Lazard suits up or not. That should be a good thing for them as Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon will have little trouble running against the Lions. With a successful running game, the Packers can limit how much they even need to throw the football on Sunday. For Detroit things really are pretty simple, they use their offensive line to control the line of scrimmage, making everyone else look a whole lot better. That should hold true against a Packers front that has gotten moved off of the ball against physical offensive lines this season. Just like the Packers, the Lions will try to exploit a Packers defense that is allowing nearly 5 yards per carry to run their way to a win as well. Jamaal Williams has been a force, and they welcome back D’Andre Swift into the fold as well. That duo also needs to play really well as the Packers aren’t easy to throw the football on. The Lions will need to find some creative ways to attack the Packers, who can match up with Amon-Ra St. Brown and their receivers. The offensive game plan for both teams is basically like looking into the mirror in this game. Again, who would have guessed that, with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Panthers are 0-7 straight up in their last 7 road games
– The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games
– The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Packers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. the Lions
– The Packers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on the road vs. the Lions
Here we are again playing a teaser that is slightly unconventional. We’ll either learn our lesson finally, if we lose, or we’ll be patting ourselves on the back if we can ever win one of these. The Bengals certainly make sense, as the Panthers have struggled on the road, and the Bengals should bounce back, as they have played well at home. This game could end up being close, but Cincinnati is too good, even without some key players to lose this game. The other game would normally be kind of scary, but with this current Packers offense, 9.5 points seems like an absolute ton. Throw in the fact that the Lions are still in that stage of playing much more engaged and focused at home than on the road and we’ll hope they can keep this close. To be honest, being over the key number of three, we debated playing the Lions straight up, however the home crowd is growing a bit restless, and the Packers are desperate for a win. We’re just hoping for a close divisional game in this contest.
