vs. 
Green Bay Packers (0-0) vs. Chicago Bears (0-0)
Thursday September 5th
8:20pm
NBC
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Chicago Bears – 3 (-120)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
The 2019 NFL season begins at Soldier Field in Chicago as the league’s longest rivalry takes center stage. A quick Wikipedia search tells us: The Bears–Packers rivalry began in 1921 and is the league’s longest, with 197 regular-season and post-season games. The Packers lead the series 97–95–6 as of April 2019. The two clubs have won a combined 22 NFL championships (including 5 Super Bowls) and have 48 members in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. With the obligatory semantics about this rivalry behind us we can take a look at the 2019 edition and determine if there are any angles that could lead to a suggested wager or two. Both teams have playoff aspirations as the Packers are looking to regain some of Aaron Rodgers magic while the Bears will once again boast one of the best defensive units in the NFL.
What We’re Watching
The Green Bay Packers open a season for the first time since 2006 with a head coach other than Mike McCarthy leading the charge. Matt LaFleur makes his head coaching debut in a tough spot on the road against the best defense in the league on a national stage. Much was made of the “falling out” between McCarthy and star quarterback Aaron Rodgers. How will Matt LaFleur’s presence impact the play and attitude of Rodgers? The more important question might be can a change in offensive philosophy give the Packers offense a jolt and some balance so it can move towards the top of the league once again? With Rodgers calling the shots, we’re not overly concerned with the ability of the Packers offense to generate points. One thing that instantly should help Green Bay is the fact they are starting the season relatively healthy. Welcoming back Geronimo Allison should help what was a one dimensional receiver group last year. Davante Adams proved that he can be a top-tier receiver and the Pack have a quality backfield that should keep opposing defenses honest. The real questions revolve around the defense as the Packers moved on from several veterans and are looking to youth and speed to help to improve a unit that was solid at times, but struggled at others a year ago.
The Chicago Bears on the other hand look very similar to the team they were last season and if you’re a Bears fan that’s a really good thing. They bring back most of their defense that was absolutely dominant and the offense has had a year to come together under their young signal-caller Mitch Trubisky. Chicago will be looking to drill home the claim that they are the bully of the tough NFC North and aren’t afraid of Rodgers or anyone else. Tarik Cohen and David Montgomery will pace the Bears on the ground with the departure of Jordan Howard, and as with GB, the Bears ability to stay balanced in this game will be important. One semi-important injury to keep tabs on is Bear’s tight end Trey Burton who is listed as questionable. We know the turnover battle is key in most games, and the Bears feast off the ability to create short fields for their offense. Rodgers has actually struggled with turnovers on the road in recent seasons so if the Bears can put early pressure on it could be a long night for the Pack.
Key Trends and Indicators
Green Bay is 8-2 straight up and 6-4 ATS versus the Bears in the previous five seasons
The total has stayed under in 7 of Green Bay’s last 10 games
Green Bay is just 1-9 straight up on the road in their last 10 games
The public money is pretty evenly split as of the day before with the Green Bay at 54% and Chicago at 46%
The total has stayed under in Chicago’s last 5 games
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games
BetCrushers Take:
One of the biggest keys in long-term betting success is to follow the trends and analytics and leave emotions out. When you look at this matchup on paper the Bears should cruise to an easy win and cover. This is a clear case of what feels right, versus what the numbers and matchups tell you. JJ is banking on the Bear’s tough defense to harass Rodgers early and often and the Packer’s defense to struggle against the speed of the Bear’s offense. Yanni is going with the simple fact that Aaron Rodgers in a season-opening primetime game will be able to take this one down to the wire.
If you’ve followed our week 1 plays you’ll note the BetCrushers aren’t playing this game against the spread. We’re looking to tease Green Bay to a +9 assuming Rodgers won’t get blown out in a nationally televised game. We’ve gone ahead and paired the first game of week 1 with one of the last games using the Saints as the second part of the teaser. This is going to be a fun season, play wisely and let’s make some profit.
