Previous Week Plays – 4-1
Season Record – 4-1
WEEK 1 RECAP:
As we mentioned in our plays article for week 1 we generally like to take it a little slow during week 1 as we get a feel for the league and the individual teams. While our picks are primarily based upon trends, history and matchups, we had some pretty strong feelings on more than a few games and decided to go in heavy. That resulted in a strong 4-1 hitting 80% on our opening week plays so we’ll hope that sets the tone for what this season will be for us in the NFL.
Our favorite play was the over between Baltimore and Miami as we anticipated a ton of scoring. It certainly played out that way although Baltimore carried the load there. Our teaser with the Eagles/Cowboys that we locked in six weeks before the season worked out in textbook fashion. Kansas City was a carbon copy of a year ago winning by scoring as much as they felt like and covering easily against Jacksonville who lost Nick Foles in the first quarter. And our bookend teaser with Green Bay and New Orleans came through after a fantastically entertaining Monday night opener. Our only miss was with Tampa Bay who couldn’t get out of their own way against a solid 49ers defense. Overall, the plays went pretty close to scripted so we’ll be happy with the 4-1 and move on to week number 2.
WEEK 2 PLAYS:
This is one of the more interesting slate of NFL weeks that we’ve seen in recent memory. There are a couple of large spreads with blowout potential but the overwhelming majority of games are right around that critical field goal number of 3ish or even less. More than likely we’re going to get some really exciting games this week that come down to the wire. Good for the casual football fan, a little stressful for the betting football fan. We have a slightly smaller card than usual, here are four that we’re playing in week 2:
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons
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Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) ATS (0-1) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1) ATS (0-1)
Sunday September 15th
8:20pm
NBC
Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA
Philadelphia Eagles -1 (-110)
Over/Under 51 (-110)
We locked this over play in on Monday afternoon at the 51 total assuming this number would rise, which it did. (Hopefully you saw our Twitter post to grab this one early). When totals are high like this one it’s natural to get a little scared about playing the over but don’t forget, there’s a reason that a total is high. These teams are absolutely expected to put up some points in prime time. If you watched the first half of these team’s games you probably didn’t think they’d hit an over all season.
The Eagles were able to turn it on big time in second half giving us a glimpse of who we expect they’ll be this year. A team with matchup advantages all over the field and a quarterback hungry to prove himself. The Falcons on the other hand never really got things going outside of some garbage yards and points at the end of the game. When you break this one down there are two main and fairly obvious reasons why this game should go over. First, neither of these teams have dominating defenses. Second, The Falcons and Matt Ryan are markedly better scoring points when they are playing at home. The Eagles admittedly do not score quite as easily on the road, however against this Falcons defense in a game where they’ll need to keep pace, they should do just fine.
Key Stats – Philadelphia game total has gone over in 5 of their last 7 games as a road favorite
It wouldn’t be shocking to see both teams in the 30’s in this one, that’s certainly what we’re expecting here. Big plays will be a plenty and if you’re a fantasy player, load up on guys in this game. The bigger question in this game is which team is going to end up winning this high scoring affair.
BetCrushers Take: Over 52
Atlanta 31, Philadelphia 30
Chicago at Denver
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Chicago Bears (0-1) (0-1 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (0-1) (0-1 ATS)
Sunday September 15th
4:25pm
FOX
Empower Field at Mile High – Denver, CO
Chicago -2.5 (-120)
Over/Under 40.5 (-110)
Two teams that really left week one disappointed are matched up here as the Bears travel to Denver to take on the Broncos in what figures to be a defensive battle. Chicago struggled offensively against an improved Green Bay defense while Denver was unable to get much going on either side of the ball against a fired up Oakland team. Former Bear’s defensive coordinator and new Bronco’s head coach Vic Fangio knows how to attack his old team, the question is does he have enough talent to make it happen?
There are three unknowns in this game and two givens to look at. What we do know is the Bear’s defense is going to bring it and play well, because well, they always do. We also know that Denver is a much better team at home and the crowd will be fired up. What we can’t know for sure is how the Bear’s offense is going to perform or how Denver will play on offense or defense? There are some really mind-boggling statistics regarding the Bronco’s playing at home after a loss and how well they tend to win and cover. So what does this puzzle mean when you put it all together? We certainly don’t know… Even though our model of handicapping is predicated on history and numbers, and we prefer to follow “sharp” bettors versus the public, (sharp bettors are on Denver) we’re going to play this game based on the eyeball test.
Denver looked really really bad in the opener. Joe Flacco was inaccurate and their offensive line struggled with run blocking and pass protection against what you’d think is a pretty average Oakland defense. Their defense was pushed around up front making their star pass rushers as much of a non-factor as we’ve really ever seen. Fangio will work on ways to make Von Miller and Bradley Chubb more involved and disruptive but will that be enough? If you caught our season preview article, the breakdown we had on Denver proved itself completely in week one. They are a team with five or six really good players (Miller, Chubb, Harris Jr., Sanders, Lindsay, Sutton) but are far below average in a lot of the key spots including the line play. You think of their defense as strong due to those three superstars, however sometimes 11 average players might be better than 3 elite players and 8 not very good players.
We won’t even talk about the Bear’s defense as we’ll assume they’ll do a reasonable job holding Denver down, so let’s talk about some offense. Mitch Trubisky absolutely needs to step up and play better if this team is going anywhere to or in the postseason. The Bear’s went full running back by committee with three backs, when you have to wonder if giving their electric player Tarik Cohen a little more work might be a better plan? One thing Bear’s fans should be excited about was the play of Allen Robinson. He looked like a legitimate number one receiver in the opener and they’re going to need that if this offense is going to get going. A huge thing to watch in this one is if Trey Burton can return at tight end. Denver has struggled for years and did again in week one defending athletic tight ends. If Burton can return he could potentially be in for a big day.
Key Stats – Public Money Percentage – 64% Chicago Bears
We had a pretty easy “square bet” win a week ago in this spot so we’re going to give it a shot again. All of the numbers/trends point to Denver winning this game including the fact that Sharp money is coming in on the Broncos. The bottom line is one of these teams will be 1-1 after this game and the other will be 0-2. Give us that Chicago team as the one not to start 0-2. Consider this an onside kick in the Super Bowl moment… If we cover we’ll look like geniuses, if we don’t we’ll look back and call ourselves idiots.
BetCrushers Take: Chicago -2.5
Chicago Bears 23, Denver Broncos 17
Teaser Bet
Kansas City vs. Oakland and New Orleans vs. Los Angeles Rams
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) (1-0 ATS) at Oakland Raiders (1-0) (1-0 ATS)
Sunday September 15th
4:05pm
CBS
Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum – Oakland, CA
Kansas City – 7.5 (-115)
Over/Under 53 (-110)
New Orleans Saints (1-0) (0-1 ATS) at Los Angeles Rams (1-0) (0-0-1 ATS)
Sunday September 15th
4:25pm
FOX
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum – Los Angeles, CA
Los Angeles Rams – 2.5 (-115)
Over/Under 53 (-110)
The BetCrushers hit both of our teaser plays in week 1 and in almost textbook fashion at that. We’ve got another lined up that we feel pretty good about heading into week number two. Both teasers move their respective teams through the key numbers as Kansas City moves to a -2.5 meaning a FG victory covers and New Orleans goes to getting 8.5 points so a touchdown loss keeps them covering. Both of these are tough divisional matchups and both of our teams are on the road. That’s not ideally the best scenario but when you’re getting 6 additional points for Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees you’ll forgive our semi-recklessness with this one.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: KANSAS CITY -1.5 and NEW ORLEANS +8.5
Kansas City will face an Oakland team that played about as well as a team could play on opening night. Any thoughts of Antonio Brown causing issues was put to rest early. Josh Jacobs had a stellar debut and the Oakland defense brought the heat. Let’s give Raiders GM Mike Mayock some credit for what looks like a great draft pick nabbing Clelin Ferrell as an edge rusher. The Raiders have something going with their youngsters. Oh and how about that performance by Derek Carr? Carr was throwing perfect passes all night and was fantastic on 3rd down. Kansas City on the other hand easily won a bizarre game in Jacksonville that saw Nick Foles knocked out early, fights and ejections, and unfortunately for them their superstar Tyreek Hill sidelined with an injury that appears will have him out for several weeks. What had to be somewhat concerning was the lack of pass rush that the Chiefs were able to generate allowing a rookie QB to put up some pretty solid numbers.
It’s hard to know if the Oakland team we watched Monday will be able to bring that kind of discipline and play throughout the season. What we do know is Kansas City can score pretty much every time they have the ball. The injury to Tyreek Hill is a little concerning, but there is no shortage of weapons even with Hill on the shelf. The Chiefs absolutely need new addition Frank Clark and the defense to play better to make sure they come away with a win in this one. If you’re not into teasers, you may want to consider the over for this one as it’s hard to picture either team having too much trouble putting points up. Look for Travis Kelce to have a big day and expect the Chiefs to win in a typical shoot out for them.
The second leg of the teaser is a replay of one of the more exciting games of last season between the Saints and the Rams. Last year’s version was a highlight of fireworks but this year’s game should have a slightly different feel. The homefield advantage generally isn’t huge for the Rams except they may have an ally in the grass field slowing down Alvin Kamara and the Saints offense. This game has the making of a little bit more of a grinder so don’t be shocked if teams are trading some field goals rather than touchdowns in this one. Don’t forget they’ve each got a pretty great kicker. This game seems like either team could win, although that’s a tall order for the Saints going across the country on a short week after an adrenaline packed win. The Rams will probably get the W here but anytime you can get Brees and the Saints with more than a touchdown it just seems like you’ve gotta grab it.
Key Stats – The Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games
Nothing like book ending a 2 team teaser on a Thursday and a Monday. Ultimately, we’ll never feel too concerned with giving Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees 6 additional points, particularly to get them past key numbers.
BetCrushers Take: Tease Kansas City -1.5 and New Orleans +8.5
Kansas City 37, Oakland 26 and Los Angeles 28, New Orleans 24
Minnesota vs. Green Bay
at 
Minnesota Vikings (1-0) (1-0 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (1-0) (1-0 ATS)
Sunday September 15th
1:00pm
FOX
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Green Bay -3 (-105)
Over/Under 44 (-110)
Key Trends: Green Bay is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a win against the spread
Even though Green Bay started our opening weekend teaser with a rocking chair win, you have to admit that last Thursday’s game was a bust. Chicago’s run game was nonexistent against the Pack’s defense, Aaron Rodgers was frustrated, and Mitchell Trubisky looked like he spent way too much time in the offseason watching Jared Goff highlights from Super Bowl LIII.
Sunday’s game between Minnesota and Green Bay should be nothing like the season opener. Rodgers will have the rust knocked off and their improved defense should maintain some swagger from their embarrassment of the Bears. On top of all that, Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field is always nasty.
The thing is, Minnesota’s defense is no joke. Although they were almost too aggressive up front last week (three offsides penalties leading to too many first downs), Matt Ryan struggled to find time to make the tough throws and keep the chains moving. While we can’t expect the same level of domination from the Vikings stop unit, they certainly can make it extremely difficult for Rodgers to deliver 20 points. And let’s be honest, given his showings in Tennessee last year, who expects Matt LaFleur to produce a game plan creative enough to outduel Mike Zimmer?
Of course, Green Bay bolstered their defense over the offseason, but we don’t see it rising on this occasion to fully shut down the Vikings’ offense because Minnesota’s offensive line – a major Achilles’ heel last year – is significantly improved. This unit was decimated by injuries in 2018 and played as a hollowed shell of itself. This year, Pat Elfein moves back to his natural position as guard while the newly-drafted Rimmington Trophy winner Garrett Bradley plays center. On the right side, Kline and O’Neill are expected to improve with another year of experience under their belts.
Long-time Vikings coach Kevin Stefanski stepped in as interim OC last year and earned the position for 2019. He was Kirk Cousins’ QB coach in 2018, a season with career highs in pass completion percentage and touchdowns for Cousins. Zimmer’s shift to a run-first approach is predicated on their upgraded O-line and the return of Dalvin Cook to the backfield. We would like to see Minnesota test the center of the line more this week and catch the Packers on some “gotcha” play action for chunk plays. Expect a tense game where a late score will determine the winner, cash the Minnesota +3 tickets, and extend their September ATS run to 10-3-1.
