Previous Week Plays – 0-0
Season Record – 0-0
Another plus money season is now in the rear view mirror and just like everyone else, The BetCrushers begin the 2022 NFL season with a 0-0 record and aiming for another successful year. If you’ve followed us in the past, you know that we tend to be selective early in the season, until we have a substantial sample size with some of the more unknowns in the league. We have identified some things over the offseason that we’re excited about that will hopefully allow our early season plays to prosper. Our week one plays were crafted with our normal formula of studying trends, numbers and a lot of film. To anyone out there who’s excited to be betting on week one of the NFL, remember, it’s a marathon and not a sprint. Have fun, be responsible, and let’s make some money!
Week 1 Picks:
Our week started off nicely as our first official play of the Bills over team total hit giving us a psychological feeling of euphoria starting with a 100% win rate at 1-0. All seriousness, it’s a marathon but always feels good to win after a 7 month hiatus. The sportsbooks have had a whole lotta time to get their lines in order for week one of the season and they’ve done a really nice job at locking things in. The lines that were picked off have moved so far at this point that there realistically isn’t a ton of great value out there to start out the season. Many of the wagers we have locked in we can’t give out as they’ve moved substantially and are no longer available. We did manage to take a swing at a few plays that strike our fancy, including doubling up with a heavy road favorite.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Detroit Lions
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Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) vs. Detroit Lions (0-0)
Sunday September 11th
1:00pm
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Philadelphia Eagles -4 (-110)
Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
Go ahead and call us crazy right off the bat when we tell you this Eagles and Lions game could have major NFC playoff implications a few months down the road. It’s not just the “Hard Knocks” hype for Detroit, or a couple of big pickups for the Eagles that make this must watch. The question we need to ask when handicapping this game is are both of these teams overvalued or perhaps even undervalued?
The Philadelphia Eagles are going to find out this season for certain whether or not Jalen Hurts is their franchise guy at the quarterback position. The Eagles have set him up as well as any QB in the league with a dominant offensive line and fast and talented weapons across the board. There’s a couple of early season questions in this game against the Lions that we’ll want to monitor closely. First, will new offensive coordinator Shane Steichen open the playbook right away, or attempt to ease into things in his debut season? The other piece is how much will Jalen Hurts use his legs as opposed to attempting to be a dropback passer? The Lions defense should be a little better than it was a season ago just based on their confidence level alone. That confidence might not be completely justified when you really look at their depth chart. The addition of Aidan Hutchinson on the defensive line is a great step for this team and he should provide some spark with a pass rush. Beyond that, it’s tough to see how they’ll match up against this Eagles lineup. The Lions were very poor against the run and really were unable to address that in the offseason. Even if Miles Sanders doesn’t go, the combination of Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott and Hurts scrambling should find some running lanes. Where things could really go south for the Lions is potentially giving up big plays, and not getting off of the field on third downs. Hurts should find time to throw and the duo of newly acquired A.J. Brown and the speedy Devonta Smith have a clear advantage against Lions corners Amani Oruwariye and Jeff Okudah. The latter is looking to bounce back from an injury and be the type of shutdown cornerback they drafted him to be. He’ll see a lot of Smith, and that speed could really be a problem as he looks to round back into form. Let’s also not forget about Dallas Goedert should benefit from safeties that will likely need to help the corners, and be aware of Hurts scrambling abilities.
The Lions offensively are really one of the setup well this season for a lot of the same reasons as the Eagles. They’re offensive line is strong, as last year’s top pick Penei Sewell and left tackle Taylor Decker provide great protection on the outside. They are one of the rare pairs across the league that can potentially hold down experienced defensive linemen like Brandon Graham and Josh Sweat. The Lions also can run with another solid pair of backs in D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. The challenge they may have in this game is getting their receivers open consistently. Their trio of Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark, Jr. and Josh Reynolds will do well for them throughout the season. Against the Eagles it may not be quite as simple though as Philadelphia now boasts one of the better secondaries in the league with the additions of James Bradberry and C.J. Gardner-Johnson to play alongside of Pro Bowler Darius Slay. Gardner-Johnson could draw some assignments with against tight end T.J. Hockenson, which would make things tough for the reliable weapon. We haven’t really touched on quarterback Jared Goff, and there may not be much of a reason to in this matchup. Goff can get it done when he’s put in good positions. The problem here is he may not be able to take advantage of all of his weapons against this Philadelphia defense. And that’s without even touching on some of the other potential gamechangers on defense for the Eagles.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 8 of the last 11 games for the Eagles
– The total has gone over 5 of the last 6 games between the Eagles and Lions
– The Eagles are 5-1 straight up in their last 6 season openers
If you didn’t gather from our intro, we’re pretty high on both of these teams heading into the season, and particularly the Eagles. The sportsbooks priced this correctly, and if we had to pick a side we’d go with the Lions with the points, even though the Eagles have an advantage almost across the board. The home energy of a team that believes could be enough to keep this game close. We had to take a stab at one of the matchups that we like though, and that’s the Eagles offense against the Lions defense. Philadelphia should be able to move the ball and score both on the ground and through the air. In their final eight regular season games the Eagles scored over 26 points six times, with one of the times they did not occurring in some heavy rain. Against this Lions defense, with what should be an improved offense, we’ll bank on Philly getting over their team total.
BetCrushers Take: Philadelphia Eagles – Team Total Over 25.5
Eagles 29, Lions 24
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)
Sunday September 11th
1:00pm
Paycor Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
A pair of teams that know each other well and really aren’t overly friendly towards each other get reacquainted in Cincinnati where the Bengals will host the Pittsburgh Steelers. For the first time in over 15 years the Steelers will begin the season without Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky gets the start for Pittsburgh, and he’ll have his work cut out for him facing the defending AFC champions right out of the gate. The Bengals believe they can get back to the Super Bowl, and taking care of a divisional rival is the first step in achieving that goal.
Sunday could be the start of a lengthy Mitch Trubisky era in Pittsburgh, or an uneventful and short one, depending on how the season starts out for the Steelers. Trubisky will face some pressure from the Bengals in the opener, and from rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett, who will be looking closely over his shoulder. Trubisky brings an element to the QB position that Pittsburgh has not had in years, which is the ability to scramble and make plays with his legs. That’s going to be really critical in this game as the Bengals edge rush combo of Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard should feast against their less than impressive offensive tackles. The Steelers offensive line as a whole is very worrisome in this game, and for the entire season. Najee Harris is a talented running back, but he needs a little help to utilize his athleticism. Even if the Steelers line can hold up a little bit, the Bengals next layer is solid with the underrated Logan Wilson at linebacker and Germaine Pratt in the middle. Pittsburgh’s best chance would seem to be to spread the Bengals out and try to use quick throws to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers. The Bengals secondary is a quality group, however they will have their hands full with Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and one of the potentially top rookie weapons in George Pickens. Throw in tight end Pat Freiermuth and that’s a lot to ask in coverage. It’s critical for the Bengals that their pass rush does indeed win their matchups so the secondary can stay with the Steelers skill positions.
After the Bengals Super Bowl loss it was quite trendy to pick the team to regress heading into the offseason. That would have been a fair assessment, except for the very important fact that the roster actually got better with the addition of three good offensive linemen. Now that Cincinnati has some legitimate players upfront, they should be able to run or throw against pretty much every team in the league. Joe Mixon will take a shot at what was an uncharacteristically bad Steelers run defense from a season ago. It should be improved this year as they get Tyson Alualu back from injury and brought over former Bengal Larry Ogunjobi to beef up the defensive line. They also added veteran Myles Jack at inside linebacker who gives them a little more than what Robert Spillane was able to offer them. Assuming that run defense can be a little more “Steeler” like, that will allow their rushers, primarily T.J. Watt to focus on getting after Joe Burrow. Speaking of Burrow, he missed basically all of training camp with an emergency surgery and lost quite a bit of weight in the process. He claims he’s ready to go, so we’ll have to see if the rust or any physical issues stunt what he’s able to do at the position. Of course he has one of the top wide receiver rooms in the league at his disposal, and an aggressive play-caller which generally helps. The Steelers don’t boast any amazing talent at the cornerback position, however they do have three serviceable players that should be able to at least keep the Bengals wideouts from going completely crazy. As it’s almost always the case, ball security is important in this game on both sides. Whichever team wins the turnover battle will have a pretty clear path to victory, especially if that team is the Bengals.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Steelers are 11-3 straight up in their last 14 games vs. the Bengals
– The Steelers are 16-4 straight up in their last 20 games on the road vs. the Bengals
– The Bengals finished the 2021 season 8-0 ATS
You can certainly understand why this spread is sitting at close to a touchdown as the Bengals are the better team, with the superior quarterback. Despite the fact the number is probably about where it needs to be, this seems like a great spot to look a little closer at the Steelers. This team has owned the Bengals during Mike Tomlin’s career, and they certainly aren’t going to be afraid in this divisional matchup. Throw in the fact that Joe Burrow is still getting his strength back as he prepares to play a full game against a team that can rush the passer, and this just seems like it’s going to be closer than many think. We’ve got this projected as closer to a field goal game that’s hard fought, likely won by the home team late.
BetCrushers Take: Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5
Bengals 24, Steelers 20
Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Jets
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Baltimore Ravens (0-0) vs. New York Jets (0-0)
Sunday September 11th
1:00pm
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
Baltimore Ravens -7 (-110)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
One starting quarterback in this matchup has won a Super Bowl for the Baltimore Ravens, and the other guy is Lamar Jackson. Joe Flacco gets the start for an injured Zach Wilson, taking aim at the team he spent the prime of his career quarterbacking for. The Ravens welcome back some key players from a season ago who missed significant time with injury, while the Jets are excited to see what their trio of first round draft picks can do for their team. The Ravens are heavy favorites and want to get up early and handle their business on the road.
Lamar Jackson made some headlines earlier this week when he basically said there was a deadline to get a deal done with the team by this Friday. Who knows if this will have any impact whatsoever on he or the team when they go up the road to battle the Jets. What we do know, is if Jackson is healthy, he could give the Jets defense on Sunday. The Jets defense is not necessarily built to defend a dual-threat quarterback, as their linebackers and safeties are not particularly fast. Jackson should be able to run when he wants to, and most likely the Jets will be stacking the box, meaning he’ll have some good matchups when he wants to throw. The receivers for the Ravens don’t necessarily strike fear into opponents as their defacto number one guy at this point is Rashod Bateman. It could be an early quiz for both Bateman, and Jets top pick Sauce Gardner at the corner position to see what we’ve got for the rest of the season. As Jackson works out getting on the same page with his receivers, you can imagine his tight end Mark Andrews should have a productive day against what we already mentioned is a less than athletic group in the New York middle of the field. There is some additional uncertainty with the Ravens offense as both running back J.K. Dobbins and left tackle Ronnie Stanley could be eased back into action. Lamar Jackson is used to carrying the load for Baltimore so no matter who he has around him, the gameplan should look pretty much the same as it usually does.
The New York Jets offense is the type that should show some solid improvement as the season goes on. They have put together a better offensive line than the past couple of seasons, despite the loss of Mekhi Becton, and Zach Wilson should only get better. In week one however, there are some new faces, mixed with the possibility they’ll be without their replacement for Becton, as left tackle Duane Brown looks iffy at best to go. Every team needs a good offensive line, and when you have a classic dropback passing quarterback like Joe Flacco it’s even more critical. The Ravens aren’t the best pass rushing team in the league, yet they have crafty veterans like Justin Houston and Calais Campbell who should be able to make Flacco uncomfortable in the pocket. Expect the Jets to try to run the ball early so Flacco isn’t put into obvious passing situations with an unbalanced attack. We’ll get our first look at rookie Breece Hall, who many expect to be a star in the making at the running back position. It’s always tough to run against the Ravens, so he’ll have a tough test in his rookie debut. The Jets have also quietly put together a solid group of receivers with Elijah Moore, Corey Davis and rookie pick Garrett Wilson. That’s normally going to be an advantage for them, however against the Ravens it’ll still be a challenge. Marlon Humphrey is back and has discussed his motivation to improve upon what was a down season by his high standards. The Ravens should get at least some playing time from Marcus Peters as well, and have nice depth with Kyle Fuller at the position. Ultimately, the Jets need to keep this game close they don’t make Flacco one dimensional, and he needs to take good care of the football.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against the Jets
– The Jets are 1-4 straight up in their last 5 home games
– The Jets are 0-6 in their last 6 September games
The New York Jets should be optimistic about the direction of their team behind head coach Robert Saleh. They were feisty at times a year ago, particularly at home. There were several instances however, where they were absolutely dismantled by superior opponents. Joe Flacco is an obvious steady veteran quarterback who may manage the game and not lose it, but it’s equally as difficult seeing him being able to do enough to win it for the Jets. There’s also the factor of his lack of mobility potentially being an issue behind what is not one of the better offensive lines in the league. Unless the Jets can get up big and force the Ravens to play a different way than they’d like to, this seems like a game where Baltimore just wears them down and outclasses them a bit. This could definitely be one of the less competitive contests of the opening weekend, we’re expecting it to be.
BetCrushers Take: Baltimore Ravens -7
Ravens 30, Jets 20
Teaser Bet
San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears
Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Jets
vs. 
and 
vs. 
San Francisco 49ers (0-0) vs. Chicago Bears (0-0)
Sunday September 11th
1:00pm
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
San Francisco 49ers -7 (Even)
Over/Under 40.5 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens (0-0) vs. New York Jets (0-0)
Sunday September 11th
1:00pm
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
Baltimore Ravens -7 (-105)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: 49ers -1 and Ravens -1
Two of the biggest favorites of the weekend are both road teams as the San Francisco 49ers head to Chicago to face the Bears, and the Baltimore Ravens will be in New York taking on the Jets. Our full breakdown of the the Ravens and Jets was outlined above. We’ll take a look here at the 49ers and the Bears to see how the insertion of Trey Lance as the starting quarterback will impact their season.
If the San Francisco 49ers hit on quarterback Trey Lance, they’re going to be one of the best teams in the league. There’s some concern that maybe they didn’t, as they opted to keep Jimmy Garoppolo on the roster, creating a bit of a QB conundrum in San Francisco. The good news for the young quarterback is he’s starting on the road, which is sometimes a good thing if there is a little added pressure from the fans and organization. The other good news for Lance is he’ll be taking aim at one of the teams that most people believe will struggle to win half a dozen games this season in the Chicago Bears. When you think of the Bears defense you might feel like they could pose a big threat to a young QB on the road, but this is not the Chicago defense we’ve gotten used to seeing the past four or five seasons. This is no longer an elite unit, and in fact could be in the lower tier across the league. They do still have Robert Quinn rushing the passer, however the 49ers boast one of the better pass blocking offensive lines in the league, headlined by tackles Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey. Realistically, the Niners will be looking to establish the run with Eli Mitchell and Jeff Wilson, Jr. anyhow, and if they’re able to do that, it might not matter. The Bears no longer have the services of guys like Akiem Hicks and Eddie Goldman on the interior, and linebacker Roquan Smith was exposed a bit during a messy offseason of contract requests. It’s also difficult to see how the Bears secondary is going to deal with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Auyik and tight end George Kittle. Unlike teams of the past few years, this Bears defense is not good enough to keep them in games if their offense struggles.
Speaking of struggling offenses, it could be a long season for the Bears on that side of the ball. More specifically, it could be a really long day against a pretty intimidating pass rush of the San Francisco 49ers. Chicago has one of the weakest offensive lines in the league, and that’s a problem when you’re facing guys like Nick Bosa. The Bears front is a better run-blocking group than throwing so they’ll look to get David Montgomery going, but that’s a tough ask against an interior triangle of Javon Kinlaw, Arik Armstead and linebacker Fred Warner. Ultimately, it’s going to come down to how much Justin Fields can do under what is sure to be a fair amount of pressure? The Bears like their wide receivers, even though Darnell Mooney is really the only somewhat proven player on the roster. One player who could have a nice game here is tight end Cole Kmet, who has some favorable matchups if he can get lined up against safeties or in soft zones. At the end of the day, this just seems like too much for the Bears offensive line to keep Fields clean against a stout defensive unit. Additionally, the 49ers boast a few of the more athletic linebackers in the league which should help nullify the big play scrambles that Fields has the ability to make.
Key Stats and Trends
– The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games
– The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
– The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games
– The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against the Jets
– The Jets are 1-4 straight up in their last 5 home games
– The Jets are 0-6 in their last 6 September games
Normally it’s not the best idea in the world to tease a road team as it doesn’t fit the optimal formula for percentage winning. Not that we ever advise being reckless with wagers, but it’s week one of a very long season so we’re going to go against that trend with both teams. In the San Francisco game, as long as Trey Lance doesn’t put up a four turnover disaster, the 49ers should be fine. At the end of the day we have two teams that we just need to win that we’ve got projected for double digit wins this season, playing against two teams we don’t feel are near playoff contention. Sure, this one could come back to bite us for a little bit of what could be described as carelessness, yet here we are.
