With the Bristol Night Race on deck, the field of 16 Championship hopefuls approaches the 2022 Hollywood Casino 400 as a prime opportunity to take the checkered flag and advance to the Round of 12. These 1.5-mile intermediate tracks are like a mid-range jump shot in basketball – occasionally overlooked but a big part of some teams’ plans to bring home the hardware. Kansas is huge opportunity for teams with speed to make their move if they can avoid pit road miscues like so many did in May. The weather looks primo in the Midwest, so it’s time to fire up a couple more bets before the green flag flies at Kansas Speedway. BOL!
Playing the 2022 Hollywood Casino 400 – Featured Handicaps for Kansas
Saturday’s practice sessions and qualifying runs showed a strong bias toward the usual suspects like Kyle Larson and his Hendrick Motorsports crew. It should be no surprise that young bucks like Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell rolled into town locked and loaded with serious speed, qualifying on the pole and 4th, respectively. These two are the subjects of my mid-week breakdown, which still remains a pick ’em at several books offering it this morning. Reddick earned my lone “A+” grade in Saturdays’ festivities with Bell right behind him as an “A”. This is gonna be a good one to follow along with two more wagers now in my accounts…
Out, But Not Down: Martin Truex, Jr. +100 vs. Joey Logano -120
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Track | Prac & Qual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truex | A- | A- | A- | B+ | B- |
| Logano | A | A- | C | C | B+ |
Breaking the rule of avoiding head-to-head matchups between a playoff driver and a non-playoff driver might be my first mistake here. Hopefully, it’s my only mistake with this one. Both Joey Logano and Martin Truex, Jr. enter the competition with very good speed and results on the ovals lately. MTJ’s exit from Darlington was a tough one, especially considering how strong the #19 Toyota was in the shark-infested waters full of playoff drivers. To overcome the intangible advantages afforded to contenders, what does Truex and his Joe Gibbs Racing crew offer as a dog in this matchup?
Sure, the luster of “Mile-and-a-Half Martin” may have faded the last couple years in terms of dominance on the intermediates. When compared to his opponent, the #19 clocked the fifth-best total speed ranking on this track type in 2022 – firmly above the #22’s thirteenth-best mark. And the consistency that MTJ has delivered on the former 550-hp tracks is very appealing. We’re talking about finishes between 6th and 13th in all eight such races in 2022. That’s opposed to Logano spiking Top 5s early in the season at Fontana and recently at Michigan with lackluster results in between. I’ll even throw in an impressive P4 last week at Darlington to improve Joey’s standing in this handicap.
WAGER: Truex +100 (DraftKings)
The theme of consistency vs. inconsistency is also a key theme on this track in this handicap. 3x Kansas winner Joey Logano spiked his most recent victory here in the 2020 playoff race, while Truex took home both of his checkered flags during the storybook 2017 Championship Season in the #78. It should be no surprise that the deciding factor that put me on MTJ is consistency to the tune of 10 Top 10s in his last 11 Kansas contests. that includes 90+ ratings in all ten and 100+ ratings in seven with a 99.9 in May falling just short of that plateau. I’m fine with backing this type of consistency and effectively putting Joey Logano in a position to deliver a Top 5 finish to beat me this afternoon.
On the Edge: Austin Dillon +100 vs. Chase Briscoe -130
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Track | Prac & Qual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon | D | B- | C+ | B- | B- |
| Briscoe | D | D | C | D+ | C+ |
With Bristol on deck and the cut line looming thereafter, neither of these drivers are in a great position to advance with letdown performances this afternoon. Is Kansas a “must win” for either team? Perhaps, though their 50/1 odds to win the Hollywood Casino 400 paint a picture of a Top 10 finish being the more realistic goal. Neither team has arguably been very good leading up to the postseason – especially with Austin Dillon’s clutch Daytona win being the only reason that the #3 team made the playoffs. Plus speed has been somewhat lacking on either side of this matchup recently on the ovals. Dillon earned the edge in terms of final position – what ultimately matters in resolving these wagers – by virtue of the Daytona win and being consistently a step ahead of Briscoe since Pocono.
Saturday confirmed that both have above-average speed and decent qualifying laps put them just outside of the top ten on the starting grid. Chase Briscoe likes his ride and the prospects for long-run speed despite not putting a 10-lap run together. Otherwise, Dillon delivered top-third practice speeds indicative of his four straight Kansas finishes in the range of P10-P13. When you compare the last three here in which both have competed, AD has firmly outfinished Briscoe and was rated significantly higher. Many attributes are close to equal in this handicap except for perhaps the most important one: performance at Kansas Speedway. Give me the RCR Chevrolet this afternoon at a discounted price.
WAGER: A. Dillon +100 (offshore)
I dislike giving out matchups that may not be available with domestic books, but this one really got my attention with the revised price. BetUS posted this as a -115 pick ’em during the week and I put the AD side on my watch list. But I simply could not pass this one up with a discount after neither driver established a firm edge on Saturday. Maybe I’m missing something here…maybe not. BOL!
Fired Up For Action!
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