Not getting Daytona under the lights last weekend was a damn shame, but that’s on Mother Nature. I will say that the action in the Sunday morning into the late afternoon delayed race had my heart rate up for way too long. My eight matchup bets on the final regular season contest sat at 5-3 as the noon rains put a halt to the action. Naturally, engines re-fired as Ms. JJ and I made it to downtown Pittsburgh, sweating those bets to a 4-4 finish (featured handicaps fortunately went 2-2). After all that, I’ll take it. And I think Ryan Blaney would say the same. Now the NASCAR Playoffs are here and the final 16 drivers are locked and loaded for a classic showdown at the 2022 Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.
The 2022 Cook Out Southern 500 – Early Handicaps for Darlington
Darlington. The Southern 500. As dramatic as Daytona can be – and certainly was last weekend – Darlington Raceway presents a different set of challenges. The strategy-filled Southern 500 lulls some drivers into a little too much comfort with the wall and its rough track challenges teams’ focus through an abundance of four-tire pit stops. Driving skills, stamina, strategy decisions, and flawless pit crew work all come into play in the first race of the postseason.
Since I’m currently in the sports betting desert of Ohio through race day, time was ticking to take a couple positions in my domestic accounts prior to leaving Pennsylvania. Thankfully, Ryan at ifantasyrace.com fires up early in the week to help us strike while the iron is hot. So let’s get an early breakdown out now, then come back Sunday morning with more post-qualifying matchups. BOL!
Changing of the Guard? Tyler Reddick -125 vs. Kevin Harvick +105
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Track | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reddick | C | C- | C | B+ |
| Harvick | A- | A | A- | A |
If there is any driver who will make the high line at Darlington work, it’s Tyler Reddick. Another year older and another year wiser for the kid, but does this additional experience mean the #8 Chevrolet will be spared excessive Darlington Stripe action? This 500-mile test – a race in which Tyler has finished 23rd and 18th – will challenge his will to ride the edge for an extended duration. One positive indicator for him in this situation is May’s runner up performance. Was it more of a byproduct of losing multiple cars in the lead pack? Regardless, I have to view Reddick’s improvement at Darlington through his third year in the Cup Series as legitimate.
As Reddick’s future gets brighter by the week, I’m standing behind hard-headed veteran Kevin Harvick in this matchup. Resisting the short plus-money dog was futile even though he’s on the complete other side of Tyler’s career arc. Harvick finished two spots behind him in the spring Darlington race with a rare 84.1 rating. Just how rare? That was Kevin’s first sub-90 rating here since his RCR days in 2012. Despite the low rating, that P4 extended his Top 10 streak at the track Too Tough to Tame to an impressive 13 races. And think that you could snap up a -120 Top 10 finish price from DraftKings on Tuesday!
WAGER: Harvick +105 (DraftKings; +114 available at BetRivers)
This is a little bit of a “show me” spot for Reddick and the #8 team. 500 miles under the lights is no easy task and Tyler will need to straddle the line between aggressive and conservative to stay relevant late and eclipse the 90 rating mark. All signs point to continued improvement but Kevin Harvick is the man to beat in this matchup. Plus I really like a situation where the #8 likely needs a career-best Southern 500 performance to beat the experienced #4 crew. After all, the latter is in prime form to make it 14 straight Darlington Top 10 finishes.
Flipping the Script: William Byron -110 vs. Ryan Blaney -110
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Track | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron | B- | B | B- | B |
| Blaney | C | C- | A- | C- |
As thankful as I am for Ryan Blaney’s determination at Daytona to split my matchups on him, this week I’m turning against the #12 in favor of the Hendrick Motorsports #24. While we’ve seen Blaney fire off three 90+ ratings in his last five Darlington starts, the results have been middling. Last spring’s P8 represents his best finish here at the Cup level – the first of two contests in which the #12 was in the mix throughout. I get it, they don’t necessarily cross over too well – but Blaney’s lack of success on this 1.366-mile oval is a sharp contrast to his impressive resume on one-mile and shorter tracks.
William Byron’s #24 hasn’t had top ten speed in the recent non-road course contests, though it has been close. And it’s been consistent enough to give him a shot at a third career Darlington Top 10 finish on Sunday. Willy B’s finishes and underlying metrics speak to steady improvement that has accelerated since the 2020 Southern 500. Regularly demonstrating that 100+ ratings are very doable gives him a stronger baseline compared to Ryan Blaney. And to top it all off, Byron’s body of work here looks even better in light of skewed results: a wreck that took him out of the 2021 500 and a late run-in with Denny that sabotaged a Top 3 finish this spring.
WAGER: Byron -110 (DraftKings)
Middling finishes in recent weeks off of the road courses kept me on the fence with this matchup until Ryan (@ifantasyrace) dropped a couple positive nuggets on Byron. His website’s PROS Rankings list the HMS #24 as a top ten machine in each of the last four Darlington races. Compare that to the Penske #12 on the list only twice in that same period, lagging the #24 in both instances. With this reinforcement I’m good with taking this pre-qualifying pick ’em position on Willy B. Enjoy Saturday’s action and I’ll catch up with you shortly thereafter with a new crop of matchup bets to break down and wager on.
Get Ready For Raceday!
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