There’s nothing like a late summer night race on the Cup Series circuit, with the regular season fading into the postseason and the stakes getting higher. It’s race day and you know that the BetCrushers team is serving up some last-minute NASCAR handicapping for this year’s Darlington race.
What the Weekend Tells Us
Darlington’s egg-shaped oval poses a big challenge for crew chiefs, as we detailed in last week’s race overview. Friday’s practices showed us a lot about which teams should have competitive machines in live racing action. Young William Byron took the pole yesterday in his #24 Chevy, with betting favorite Kyle Larson starting right behind him in the second row. As sharp NASCAR handicapper @NASCARstyleodds noted after the practice sessions, this dude has been scorching this weekend:
Kyle was one of our race preview “follows” before the to-win odds were posted and there obviously wasn’t much argument from the bookmakers. Despite our optimism for Larson tonight, value is lacking and we continue to give Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick an edge over the field considering their pre-qualification prices. However, you cannot deny Larson being a factor in the Southern 500:
Kyle won the first two stages on his way to a 3rd place finish last year and has shown improvement throughout his short Darlington career. Additionally, you have to like his current form as the NASCAR regular season winds down. He’s in 11th place in the playoff standings and must finish strong to get into postseason contention. The stars appear to be aligning for the #42 team, and we expect a strong performance from them next weekend.
Saturday’s qualifying put Larson in the 3rd starting position and his updated odds reflect it. If you picked him up before he dropped to +400, you’re in great shape. Our early to-win plays, Hamlin and Harvick, will start 9th and 11th tonight. Both of these guys look to have fast long-run cars that could make waves, but still must contend with rockets driven by Larson, Byron and Kyle Busch.
Postseason Implications
The Southern 500 could be a difference-maker for several drivers hovering around the playoff cut line. Guys like Almirola, Jones, Newman, Suarez, and Boyer straddle that coveted 16th position and are racing for their postseason lives. Likewise, top contenders Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex, Jr., and Joey Logano would love to rack up more playoff points and shrink the gap between Kyle Busch and everyone else.
Clint’s Back on the List
What do playoff implications mean in handicapping tonight’s NASCAR race at Darlington? Psychological aspects aside, expect Clint Bowyer to be as erratic as ever as he sits in a desperate 17th playoff position. Bowyer has been on our fade list several times this year, with successful results. Given his decent showing in Friday’s practices and a 13th starting position, there are a few advantageous betting matchups if you want to fade the #14 Ford.
Byron (-140) vs. Bowyer
-140 is on the high end for what we consider a viable matchup price, but this juice gets us a ticket against Clint Bowyer. Yes, there’s a massive experience gap between pole sitter William Byron and the veteran Bowyer. But Byron’s crew chief Chad Knaus has been around this block a time or two and knows how to field a fast car at Darlington.
The Usual Suspect: Kurt Busch
If you’ve been following BetCrushers.com’s NASCAR handicapping coverage, you probably know that Kurt Busch is one of our go-to dark horse guys. He’s sitting in the eighth spot in the playoff standings and has a win, which guarantees him a postseason run. He’s a full 34 playoff points behind his brother and has a legit ride tonight – a prime opportunity to make up some ground.
When the time is right, we like to dial up #1 for a good matchup or Top 10 bet. Well, it’s time to roll with The Outlaw. Kurt had a great weekend, getting himself in the second row to start the Southern 500. Not only was his Chevy fast in the one-lap qualifying sprint, he had a top-10 ride in the five- and twenty-lap averages.
Kurt Busch (+135) over Kyle Busch
You think the boys from Vegas have a sibling rivalry on the track? Look no further than July in Kentucky when the Busch brothers battled tooth and nail to the finish. It’s not very often that big brother Kurt gets a leg up on Kyle, but Darlington is a track where these guys have finished right in front of one another in three of the last four races. Though Kyle starts in the back after an engine change, you have to imagine he’s going to find his way into the top 15 in short order. We’ll take the plus-money in this tight battle between brothers.
The BetCrushers Darlington Southern 500 Betting Card
- Denny Hamlin +700 to win
- Kevin Harvick +650 to win
- William Byron -140 over Clint Bowyer
- Kurt Busch +135 over Kyle Busch
