What more can you say about Kevin Harvick’s back-to-back dubs? Ms. JJ’s 2022 Season Championship future bet on Happy Harvick is officially off of life support. Kudos to her being live in the postseason and in keeping me humble despite delivering back-to-back 3-0 matchup winners after Richmond played out nicely. The Missus says a trained monkey can do that for only two weeks in a row. So let’s see what happens with another three-pack for the 2022 Go Bowling At The Glen. BOL!
Playing the 2022 Go Bowling At The Glen – Featured Handicaps for Watkins Glen
Kind of wild how the ebbs and flows of a full 36-race Cup Series season can be so pronounced for some drivers. Trackhouse Racing is a prime example of being in a full-on downturn while SHR’s #4 team seemingly has found a little something in the Next Gen car. In three short weeks, we’ve gone from a 2-mile oval to a short track, now to a true O.G. road course at Watkins Glen International. My appreciation for road racing has grown over the years, but like many things in life, moderation is key.
After Saturday we have to ask, Where the hell are the Toyotas? Only Kyle Busch qualified in the Top 10 but he’s starting in the back alongside teammate Christoper Bell after the #20’s engine issues on Saturday. Joe Gibbs Racing’s loss is Hendrick Motorsports’ gain as Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson earned front row starting positions with strong showings yesterday. Despite starting from the back, I don’t think you should write these two off. As we all know, anything goes on race day. So are we looking at Chevy domination, or will some of those sneaky Fords give them trouble this afternoon?
Pre-Qualification Holdover: William Byron -110 vs. Joey Logano -110
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Track | Prac & Qual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron | A | B | B | B | A |
| Logano | C | A- | D | C- | C+ |
I typically do not post pre-qualification wagers with significant price movements going into Sunday’s race. Byron vs. Logano is a slight exception since -125 for the favorite is not a prohibitive number given the scenario. Willy B’s qualifying laps produced a 4th starting position after posting the 4th fastest practice lap and 2nd best 5-lap average. This supports the #24 car’s recent speed and gives a nod towards status quo or improvement on this track and overall performance on road courses in the 2022 season.
Don’t get me wrong, Logano’s run of three straight P6 or better finishes coming into Watkins Glen is concerning. Strong showings at Michigan and Richmond came on the heels of a pushy P6 finish at the Indy R.C. Outside of Indy, however, Byron outfinished the #22 Penske Ford in the other three road course races despite middling finishes. The difference between these two – and the reason for the price increase – is the #24 Hendrick Chevy’s practice/qualifying speeds compared to Logano’s 15th fastest lap and 20th qualifying position. However, Joey had the 7th best 5-lap average. So a long green flag run to end today’s race could help level the playing field between these two. Too many factors line up for the #24 camp in this one, and I would have no issue laying -125 on this matchup on race day if I was not already invested.
WAGER: Byron -110 (Now Available Between -125 & -145)
Championship Hunters: Kyle Larson -120 vs. Ross Chastain +100
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Track | Prac & Qual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larson | B- | B | C | A | A+ |
| Chastain | A- | C- | A | B | C+ |
One thing we’ve learned this season is to always keep an eye on Trackhouse Racing’s #1 & #99 teams. The latter was quite good yesterday, while Ross Chastain’s #1 Chevrolet did not live up to its 2022 road course prowess. Chastain has been so fast on and off the ovals but was ho-hum in practice and qualified with a disappointing 18th place position. Plus the #1 team failed to crack the Top 10 in the last four races after cranking out six straight Top 10s. That’s the dark side of Ross’s handicap. The bright side is his top-tier speed through this rough stretch and dominant speed on the road courses this season.
Is Larson’s role as a favorite here undeserved? The #5 simply did not have the speed at Indy a few weeks ago and his road course work has been more or less spotty this season. In my opinion, Kyle’s success at Watkins Glen comes down to avoiding mistakes. He and Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott dominated Saturday’s festivities and the duo will share the front row when the green flag drops this afternoon. Raw speed in the form of the fastest lap and best 5-lap average takes the edge off of Larson’s just okay average speed across 2022’s four road course contests. The defending champion of Go Bowling At The Glen could be in a get right position if he can translate this top speed into a top finish.
WAGER: Larson -120
Sneaky Road Course Racers: Michael McDowell -125 vs. Chris Buescher -105
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Track | Prac & Qual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McDowell | C- | C | B+ | C+ | B |
| Buescher | C+ | B+ | A- | C | A- |
There is something to be said about the mid-tier Fords of Michael McDowell and Chris Buescher having Top 10 speed across the four road course races in 2022. And that speed has led to three Top 10s for both teams at Sonoma, Road America, and Indy. In fact, the #17 and #34 finished within two positions of each other in those contests. A slight nod goes to Buescher for current form in terms of both speed and finish. Their prior work at Watkins Glen slots them into mid-teens expectations – Buescher with four straight Top 20s; McDowell with five in the last six – though practice and qualifying allude to improvement over prior years.
One thing to note is the market’s perspective on this matchup, flipping it from Buescher -125 coming into the weekend. McDowell was highly impressive in qualifying, walking away with a 3rd place starting position as compared to 7th for Buescher. The flip side to starting position is the #17 team’s 6th fastest lap in practice and 4th best 5-lap average. The #17 RFK Ford outpaced Front Row’s #34 before qualifying by a decent margin. Slight edge to Chris Buescher from what we saw yesterday added to small edges in other categories leads me to a play on the small dog here. Props go to both of these teams though the price is certainly right to play CB17 at -105 against a plucky #34 team.
WAGER: Buescher -105
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