ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Draftkings sportsbook)
Buffalo Bills -225
Miami Dolphins +450
New England Patriots +500
New York Jets +2200
After decades of domination from the New England Patriots, the path through the AFC East now runs through Buffalo and the Super Bowl favorite Bills. The Dolphins had a very busy offseason in an effort to close the gap and make their own playoff push, while the Patriots are right on their heels. The Jets have had some injuries in the offseason, but through multiple draft picks are assembling a talented young roster. Can anyone get in the way of what appears to be a fast moving train in Buffalo, or will the Bills run away with the division? We didn’t stray much from the season opening futures, but there’s plenty to consider and be aware of for each team.
Buffalo Bills
2021 Record – 11-6
2021 Record Against the Spread – 10-7-2
KEY ADDITIONS:
(LB) Von Miller, (OG) Roger Saffold, (DT) Jordan Phillips, (TE) O.J. Howard, (QB) Case Keenum, (CB) Kair Elam, (RB) James Cook
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(DE) Jerry Hughes, (DE) Mario Addison, (WR) Cole Beasley, (CB) Levi Wallace, (DT) Harrison Phillips
The AFC Divisional round matchup of the the Bills and Chiefs provided football fans one of the most memorable finishes in the history of the league. Unfortunately for the Bills, it provided absolute heartbreak when the team gave up a lead with 13 seconds and ultimate succumbed to the Chiefs in overtime. Despite having one of the most talented rosters entering the offseason, the team made some big moves in hopes it will be enough to put them over the top in their quest for the team’s first Lombardi Trophy. We’ll take a closer look here to see if there are any blind spots that could derail their Super Bowl aspirations and dreams.
The Bills finished the season red-hot offensively, which included some of the top playoff performances in history. The team lost offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and replaced him with quarterback coach Ken Dorsey, who will be calling plays for the first time in his career. He has a great connection with quarterback Josh Allen, and they know which pages of the playbook each likes. The one area that could be slightly different is Dorsey’s desire to run the ball more consistently from the running back position. The Bills used their second round pick on James Cook, the versatile running back from Georgia, who the team hopes can be a weapon in the run game and in the passing game. He’ll get some chances, but current incumbent back Devin Singletary came on strong at the end of last season, and looks strong heading into this year. As with most teams, this is predicated on the ability of the offensive line to open up some holes, something that the team hopes their current alignment can do with regularity. The team brought in Roger Saffold, a run blocking guard, and hope that he and behemoth right tackle Spencer Brown can compliment their veterans to provide that muscle in the run game. It’s really more important than ever, as the team wants to limit Josh Allen’s running, especially during the regular season. The passing game should be strong again as Allen seems to have really figured defenses out, and now has even more chemistry with top target Stefon Diggs and tight end Dawson Knox. The team is deep at the position with rookie Khalil Shakir and veteran Jamison Crowder, but it’s Allen’s quieter weapons that could be the big producers in the offense. Gabriel Davis is a hot name entering the season, and rightly so. He’s poised to have a breakout campaign opposite Diggs, and shifty slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie seems to be picking up where Cole Beasley left off before departing. In a league that has some really potent offenses, this one has the potential to be a top five group, and maybe even better.
No team was better defensively in 2021 than the Buffalo Bills, as the team led the league in many of the notable categories, and finished 3rd in defensive EPA. The front office of the Bills actually worked hard to make this unit even stronger as it invested in both free agency and the draft. The headline signing was luring over edge rusher Von Miller to bolster what was a mediocre pass rush. In less notable news, the team brought back veterans Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson, as well as Tim Settle and Daquan Jones giving them perhaps the deepest defensive line rotation in the league. Linebackers Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds are back for a fourth straight season together, and provide athleticism in the middle of the defense. Speaking of a dynamic pair, the safety duo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are as good as you’ll find across the league. If there is a potential weakness on this defense, it’s at the cornerback position. All-Pro Tre’Davious White is coming off of ACL surgery and it looks like he won’t be ready until the midpoint of the season. That leaves Dane Jackson and rookie first round pick Kair Elam manning the spots until White can get back into the swing of things. The team is high on late draft pick Christian Benford, but he’s got a ways to go before he can be considered a steady player on the corner. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier has a lot of pieces he can move around in his lineup, and there is really no reason this shouldn’t be a top five defense again. One final note to mention is the team loves what they have in the kicking game with Tyler Bass, and the recently drafted Matt Araiza, also known as the “Punt God”.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 14th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 11.5 Wins (over -140, under +120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 12-5
Nearly everyone seems to believe this is the year that Josh Allen and the Bills get over the hump and finally give their fans a long-awaited Super Bowl win. It’s hard to imagine this team not dominating, and outside of a serious injury to Josh Allen, they should definitely be in the mix. The AFC is stacked with some really good teams, and there are some tough matchups along the way for the Bills. With that being said, they should be able to hold serve within the AFC East, and have a legitimate shot at the number one seed in the conference. Coaching, offense, defense and special teams, this team is poised to shine.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Team Total – Overs, Teaser Bets
Having mentioned how on fire this offense has been, this team should rack up points at a quick pace. They have some tough games to start the season, which means there will be some value with taking their overs. In games where the numbers line up correctly, this team is perfect for Wong teasers. If they’re giving a touchdown or eight points, they need to be an automatic teaser leg. Tread cautiously playing them against the spread as the books will need to overprice them.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Gabriel Davis (WR)
If you’re going to load up on offensive fantasy players from one team, the Bills are certainly a group you’d want to do that with. Josh Allen is projected to be fantasy QB1, Stefon Diggs is a top target, and Dawson Knox could be a sneaky good tight end option after the big five are off the board. We’re all in on the hype with wide receiver Gabriel Davis who is slated between 18-21 on most receiver boards. We’re expecting a huge season from Davis as he should catch a lot of passes, and find his way into the end zone with regularity.
Miami Dolphins
2021 Record – 9-8
2021 Record Against the Spread – 9-7-1
KEY ADDITIONS:
(WR) Tyreek Hill, (OG) Conner Williams, (RB) Raheem Mostert, (RB) Sony Michel, (OT) Terron Armstead, (LB) Channing Tindall
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(WR) Davante Parker, (QB) Jacoby Brissett
For what could be described as a somewhat chaotically run organization, the Miami Dolphins worked their back into contention really quickly over the past couple of seasons. In a move that generated a lot of discussion, the team ended up with Mike McDaniel as their new head coach, as the team did some major overhauling heading into the 2022 season. With a revamped roster that boasts some of the top speed in the entire league, the pressure is now squarely on the shoulders of quarterback Tua Tagavailoa. Will Tua rise to the occasion and help guide this team into the playoffs, or will the Dolphins still be searching for their face of the franchise?
Since we’re already talking about Tua Tagavailoa, let’s just finish that conversation before examining the rest of their offense. The organization is publicly backing the young quarterback, and almost seem desperate to show he can make the throws needed to win in this league. For starters, Tagavailoa needs to stay healthy and avoid injuries, something he hasn’t done in his career thus far. In a slew of offseason moves, the Dolphins added offensive tackle Terron Armstead and guard Conner Williams to help protect their quarterback. The running game is now a healthy stable with the additions of the speedy Raheem Mostert, Chase Edmonds and Sony Michel. As always, how well Miami can run the football will play a big part in the progression of Tagavailoa in the passing game. In breaking down the passing game, the world was shocked to see Tyreek Hill join the team, and line up opposite of last year’s impressive rookie Jaylen Waddle. Former Cowboy Cedrick Wilson and tight end Mike Gesicki round out a very capable, and very athletic receiving group. Even if Tua is the answer at QB, it can sometimes take a group with so many added pieces some time to gel together. How patient will the organization be if the team struggles in the early weeks of the season?
When you go down the depth chart for the Miami Dolphins, it’s actually pretty darn impressive top to bottom. The team has talented players in all three levels, and it’s a great blend of both young and old. Defensive coordinator Josh Boyer wants the team to be more aggressive this season, and with what should be a strong pass rush, and very good secondary, that could be a huge competitive advantage for this team. While Xavien Howard may be the most recognizable name on this defensive squad, it’s youngsters Jaelan Phillips and Jevon Holland who could be the impact players who really step up. They also quietly brought in Melvin Ingram to join the linebacking corps, which should help out with the pass rush. Not many people are talking about this Dolphins defense heading into the season, but they could definitely be a topic of discussion before too long.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 13th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 9 Wins (over +100, under -120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 10-7
Researching this team has brought us to the conclusion that they’re one of the most polarizing teams of the 2022 season. There are some that believe this team is destined to be great, and many who believe it’s a six win ballclub. It’s probably the lack of confidence, or at the very least uncertainty at the quarterback position that is leading to these conclusions on both ends of the spectrum. Only time will tell if Tua is a franchise quarterback, and if he struggles, who knows what will happen? After our deep dive, we’re in the camp that this roster is just to good as a whole for the team not to be competitive. We’re looking at this as a double-digit winning team that is right in the hunt for a wildcard spot in the AFC.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
Maybe it’s just a lot of luck, or hopefully it’s nice handicapping, but we’ve done really well the past two seasons both betting on the Dolphins and against them. This year may be a little trickier, so chances are we may have a wait and see approach until we know just how they’ll perform. If they start out slow, there will definitely be value in playing them later in the year.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Jaylen Waddle (WR)
There’s a real possibility that both Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds could be really solid fantasy players this season. Based on this offense and a possibility of three running backs getting carries each week, we’re steering clear of that position at least for the time being. After a great rookie season, we don’t expect a sophomore slump from the speedy Jaylen Waddle at wide receiver. With so much attention that will be focused on Tyreek Hill, it will be Waddle who benefits with a lot of targets and catches each week. Look for consistent production week in and week out and an end of the year stat line that ranks just below the top tier receivers in the league.
New England Patriots
2021 Record – 10-7
2021 Record Against the Spread – 10-8
KEY ADDITIONS:
(WR) Davante Parker, (S) Jabril Peppers, (LB) Mack Wilson, (OG) Cole Strange
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(WR) N’Keal Harry, (CB) J.C. Jackson, (OG) Shaq Mason, (OL) Ted Karras, (LB) Chase Winovich, (RB) James White
Oh how the mighty have fallen in New England… Or have they? That is the question the rest of the league is asking as head coach Bill Belichick begins season number three without Tom Brady at the helm. Both Belichick and quarterback Mac Jones are confident heading into the year, fresh off of a 10 win rookie campaign for the former Alabama signal caller. No team plays it closer to the vest than the Patriots, so what is a realistic expectation for this team that still seems to be searching for a true identity, including with their coaching staff?
Although he isn’t the most physically gifted quarterback in the league, Mac Jones performed at a pretty high level as a rookie in leading this team. Belichick believes Jones will only improve, although there is some talk around the league that the youngster may have already hit his ceiling as a player. If the Patriots are going to compete this season, Jones is going to have to play even better than he did as a rookie, and carry a team that doesn’t have a lot of superstar talent on offense. New England does still have one of the better offensive lines in the league as it boasts four proven veteran starters, and their top draft selection Cole Strange, which was an interesting selection to say the least. That line is solid in run blocking and the team should lean on Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris as much as they can. Harris is thought to be on the trading block, but the Pats’ have always been a plug and play team at the running back position. The skill positions are steady if not spectacular. With injuries to youngsters Kristian Wilkerson and Tyquan Thornton, the team will rely on some rotation of Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne and newcomer DeVante Parker at wide receiver. Where the team really needs to do better is at the tight end position as neither Hunter Henry nor Johnnu Smith gave them what they needed to a year ago. Henry at the very least was a solid red zone target for Jones, however they’d like to see a lot more from both if these guys. Perhaps the most critical piece that will determine the success of this offense is the one area we traditionally don’t have to worry about with the Patriots, and that’s coaching. There’s really not been an official announcement on who is going to call plays and be the true offensive coordinator after the departure of Josh McDaniels. Matt Patricia seems most recognized to be in this role, with some help from Joe Judge, but it hasn’t been pretty in the preseason and camp by all accounts. You likely remember Patricia from his stint with the Detroit Lions, or possibly as the defensive coordinator on this team before that. If this ends up being a failed experiment, it could ultimately be the downfall of this football team.
There are some familiar names that you may recognize on the defensive side of the ball for the Patriots, but make no mistake about it, this is no longer an elite unit. The defensive line can be categorized as average, and for a team that likes to have a shutdown corner, they’re not great there either. The linebackers could end up being the strength of the defense, although that will require Matthew Judon returning to his early season form from a season ago, and New England coaching up guys like Josh Uche and Mack Wilson. Everyone knows that Bill and Steve Belichick can scheme it up on that side of the ball, but you’ve still got to have the right pieces in place to do what you want to do as a coach. The Patriots fell all the way down to number 23 in overall defensive EPA last season, and on paper it’s tough to see how they’ll be much improved, particular with a schedule that features some pretty tough offenses to defend.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 8th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 8.5 Wins (over -125, under +105)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 8-9
We discussed the polarizing nature of the Dolphins above, yet it’s the Patriots that you could make a case for that could finish anywhere from one to four in this division. The truth is, this really has the feel of an average football team, which lends itself to their season win total of 8.5 wins. We’re going to go with the popular sentiment with this team, that they will be battling for second place with the Dolphins in the AFC East, and likely fall a little short and into the third slot. If Belichick can get this team into the playoffs in the loaded AFC, it might rank right near the top of some of his great performances as a head coach.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Over/Under – Under Totals
This one really isn’t rocket science when you look at how the Patriots are likely to gameplan throughout the season. They’re going to run the football, and try to move the chains with the short to intermediate passing game. If their defense can hold up, they’ll probably play in more lower scoring games than a lot of teams across the league. The big question is, can that defense hold up? This is another team you may want to wait a bit to evaluate before betting heavily.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)
Rhamondre Stevenson is the type of runner who can run with power and still has enough burst to make big plays on offense. While he’s listed as second on the depth chart, he’ll get plenty of touches and could ultimately be the more featured runner between he and Damien Harris. His knack for getting the ball over the goal line, and the scheme of offense that he plays in should provide him with ample opportunities to put points up on a weekly basis.
New York Jets
2021 Record – 4-13
2021 Record Against the Spread – 6-11
KEY ADDITIONS:
(OG) Laken Tomlinson, (OT) Duane Brown, (TE) C.J. Uzomah, (CB) Sauce Gardner, (RB) Breece Hall, (WR) Garrett Wilson
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(S) Marcus Maye, (WR) Jamison Crowder, (LB) Jarrad Davis
In Robert Saleh’s sophomore season as head coach of the New York Jets, he really seems to be building something that could bring this team back to life. The front office has made what seem to be quality moves in the draft, and this roster that looked almost embarrassing 12-24 months ago, suddenly looks like it could end up being pretty good. There’s still a lot to prove for this team and it won’t be easy, however if you’re a fan of the J-E-T-S, there is reason for hope.
Yes, there is absolutely reason for optimism for the New York Jets, once we get past some of what seems to be the same old same old. Namely some bad luck, as the team lost former first round pick Mekhi Becton to a knee injury in training, and follower it up with what appeared to be a serious injury to quarterback Zach Wilson. The Jets were able to replace Becton with veteran tackle Duane Brown, and even more fortunately, will only be without the services of Wilson for what looks to be the first couple of weeks of the season. New York can’t wait to have Wilson on the field, as they need to see the second year QB progress into a true leader and player at the position. The team is definitely trying to build around him as they added talent via free agency on the offensive line, and drafted college skill position stars Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall at receiver and running back respectively. The Jets actually have one of the deeper wide receiver rooms in the league and also beefed up at tight end bringing over C.J. Uzomah to pair with Tyler Conklin. Offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur is excited about this young and talented group, however he’s the first to admit they need to prove it on the field. If Wilson can come back and be the player they drafted him to be, this could be a really good nucleus of talent for several years in New York.
The defense also is starting to develop some swagger as the team used it’s top pick to select Sauce Gardner, the electric cornerback out of the University of Cincinnati. Gardner will start right away along some veterans in the secondary, and it’s not hyperbole to say that he could be the most talented player on this defense. The Jets are hopeful that C.J. Mosley can bounce back from what was not a great 2021 season, and they need him to as linebacker appears to be the weak link on the defense. The interior of the defensive line is strong with Solomon Thomas, Quinnen Williams and Sheldon Rankins, however there has to be some concern over a pass rush when you look at the roster. The Jets were dead last a season ago in defensive EPA, and a big reason of that is they couldn’t consistently get pressure on the opposing quarterback. Despite what should be an improved defense overall, a lack of a pass rush can be an absolute death sentence in today’s NFL. Looking at the options that are currently in place, it’s difficult to find where that pass rush is going to come from.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 6th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 5.5 (over -170, under +145)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 7-10
The Jets are a team that is finally headed in the right direction from a personnel and coaching standpoint. They’re still a season or so away though, as Zach Wilson needs the game reps, and the team needs to do a little more on the defensive side of the ball. Not to beat a dead horse, but the team desperately needs to find ways to manufacture a pass rush, and it’s hard to figure out how they’ll do that. Look for some flashes of greatness from this team and individual players, and ultimately another season missing the playoffs. Let’s see how things look a year from now as this team will is clearly one of the rising squads in the NFL.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
You’ll have to pick your battles if you’re betting against this Jets team as there obviously isn’t a lot of value there. If things go to form, this team will struggle against strong opponents on the road. Fade them in select situations.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Breece Hall (RB)
The simple truth with the New York Jets is we don’t really love anyone on their offense as far as fantasy guys go. The wide receivers all have some potential, however it seems like they’ll all be stealing targets from each other. Even though Michael Carter is sure to get plenty of touches, Breece Hall is the guy that deserves the most attention because he has the biggest upside. He could end up being the guy, and has the speed to make some big-time plays. Steer clear of Jets as a rule, but keep a close eye on Hall throughout the year.
