Here I am on the fence once again. Gotta admit that I like writing about the tricky handicaps more than the ones that carry higher conviction though. Thursday’s edition highlighted an unsung starting pitcher against one of the more prolific lineups in the league. Now the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-30-2022 pits a pair of interesting young arms against offenses that might be willing to comply with their wishes. BOL with your wagers this weekend – I’ll be back tonight or in the morning to break down a few NASCAR matchups for the road course race at Indy.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES @ PITTSBURGH PIRATES (+130)

R. Suarez (L) vs. M. Keller (R)

Has Mitch Keller found his rookie season magic once again? At this point, the Pirates must be happy to see his new sinker work wonders much like his older brother, Brad. It’s fair to say that Mitch’s repertoire has been more dialed via a fifth pitch in his arsenal, delivering a double-digit improvement in ground ball rate (51.4%) and a healthy reduction in hard contact (39.4%) over last season. Sure, Keller’s 20.4% strikeout rate is well below the 28.6% logged during his 2019 breakout but there is much more to the story.

With a ground ball contact pitcher you shouldn’t be overly concerned with a .331 BABIP without looking deeper. After all, this is by far the 26-year-old’s best season in that regard. Balls are put in play but Keller still delivers a reasonable 3.85 FIP/3.90 xFIP and 4.04 SIERA. Slash hard contact, induce a ton of ground balls, and don’t issue free passes. That sort of thing will keep you in the game – which he has done in four straight outings with 6.0+ IP. But the pitcher isn’t the only guy who has a say out there. The Phillies offense wishes to make their mark on Mitch’s evolution as a big-league starting pitcher.

PHI Offense by Period/Split

Philly came out of the All-Star Break in decent form offensively, winning four of their last five including a pair over the surging Braves. Steady, if not less powerful, production has fueled some late-game wins in their quest to secure a wild card berth without Bryce Harper in the lineup. Mitch Keller will give the hot bats of Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, et al plenty of opportunities to turn contact into base runners. But Pittsburgh’s defense has played fairly well this season – positive runs saved, middling in terms of zone rating – and gives Keller just enough support to survive as a contact pitcher.

Keller’s counterpart, left-hander Ranger Suarez has been even more impressive as a ground ball guy with a paltry 31.6% hard hit rate. Although he has been a little less predictable – if there is such a thing when it comes to handicapping. Box scores of his last two outings are nearly identical with 5.0 IP, 4 H, and 4 K; though 3 unearned runs against Atlanta contributed to a no decision. Combine a Pirates offense that has been lackluster against lefties (.221/.282/.372, 83 wRC+) with Philadelphia’s reasonably solid bullpen and I cannot find much of an edge with the line price today. And the total of 8 fits right in the middle of my range for the game. So what’s the plan?

PLAYER PROP CONSIDERATION: M. Keller Over 16.5 Outs -105

As the books would have it, margins on this prop seem small. Six of the last eight starters to face the Phillies out of the All-Star Break have logged at least 17 outs – with 18 being the high water mark four times. That info comes with zero context, though the lineup of starters like Jose Quintana, Zack Thompson, and Drew Smyly who cleared the 16.5 out mark says a little something. Spare that pitch count and put the ball in play. That’s the sort of approach that has done Mitch Keller well and could do me some good via this prop. Funny that I’m not a big MLB player prop guy but I’ve gravitated towards playing them lately for a fractional unit when I like a handicap but can’t quite commit to a side or total. So maybe this is another good spot for a small prop bet…

Heading for Home

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