Our opening game picks with Miami and Florida ended up a split 1-1 so we’re excited to get a little larger slate to play for opening NCAAF weekend. Since we haven’t had a chance to see how these youngsters gel early in the season, our opening week plays are focused more on trends and history. Depending on how you look at the schedule, there’s potentially a large group of games to break down. Here’s a look at a few that we’re playing:
Georgia State vs. Tennessee
vs. 
Georgia State Panthers (0-0) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (0-0)
Saturday August 31st
3:30pm
Neyland Stadium – Knoxville, TN
Tennessee -26 (-110)
Over/Under 58 (-110)
The Tennessee Volunteers football team has really underachieved over the past decade as they’re morphed into a very mediocre program that has been relying on name recognition and history to remain relevant. Head coach Jeremy Pruitt opens his second season with a roster that has a mix of that mediocrity, but also some NFL caliber talent, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The Vols are banking on the fact that quarterback Jarrett Guarantano can build off some of the flash that he showed last season. Based on recent history, we’re a little hesitant to say it, but this Tennessee team could be one of the more undervalued teams in the SEC this season.
Georgia State was only able to break into the win column two times last year and they’re looking at an overhaul on offense but return eight starters on defense. In the college world returning eight starters would seem like a good thing, unless those eight starters are not the people you want keeping opposing offenses out of your endzone. There is a clear mismatch that you might expect at the skill positions as Tenessee’s weapons should be able to have their way with GA State’s secondary. Even if they can limit Tennessee’s offense, they really could struggle to put points on the board.
Key Stats – GSU is 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 / 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17
If Tennessee can get out to a fast start this one could get really ugly, really fast.
BetCrushers Take: Tennessee -26
Tennessee 48, Georgia State 17
Oregon vs. Auburn
vs. 
#11 Oregon Ducks (0-0) vs. #16 Auburn Tigers (0-0)
Saturday August 31st
7:30pm
ABC
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Auburn – 3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 56 (-110)
The only game of the opening Saturday featuring ranked opponents should be a good one and an interesting matchup as the Pac-12 battles with the SEC. #11 Oregon will take on #16 Auburn in the Advocare Classic from Jerry’s World in Arlington. The recent success of these programs and high expectations for the 2019 season make this game appealing enough, and when you throw in these two quarterbacks, this certainly seems like must-see TV Saturday. Oregon’s senior leader Justin Herbert turned down a chance at the green room at the NFL draft in favor of playing out his senior season with the Ducks. Many feel that a strong senior season could set him up to be the first quarterback off the board in next year’s draft as he’s widely regarded as the most ready pro-style quarterback in college. For Herbert, who is also a Heisman hopeful, this is a chance for him to shine on the national stage early and a his performance here could really have an impact on how he’s viewed in either a positive or negative light. The Ducks are returning the third most starters in the country with 17, and that consistency and experience along with Herbert should make for a nice season for them.
Auburn also returns quite a few starters from a year ago, however their quarterback situation is entirely different. They’ll be looking to true freshman Bo Nix, who edged out Joey Gatewood, to lead a pretty solid offense. We checked out some of the tape from Nix in HS and it’s easy to see why he was a 5-star recruit and Auburn has put their trust in him. This kid is loaded with talent and potential. That’s an awfully tough assignment out of the gate however facing an experienced and talented team in Oregon. The defenses in this one will be key as the Tigers will try to slow down Oregon. Their defensive line is one of the best in the country so getting pressure on Herbert is a key for them. The old cliche of turnovers winning and losing games could be magnified in this one. There are two pretty big questions with this one. Can the Pac-12 actually show up against a quality team from the SEC? And can Bo Nix take the college world by storm or will steady senior Justin Herbert handle the spotlight better? We’ve seen a lot of youngsters shining recently so anything is possible, but no chance we’re putting our money on an unproven commodity (no matter how talented), when we have an almost fully returned team lead by a senior quarterback who will be playing on Sundays in another year. If you’re into moneyline plays, Oregon could very well win this game outright. That being said, if you’re getting the .5 hook, that’s probably where you want to go.
Key Stats – Oregon/Auburn have gone under in 18 of their last 22 games
We never expected to be taking a Pac-12 team on a neutral field against the SEC, but here we are? The under is very much in play here as well.
BetCrushers Take: Oregon +3.5 / Under 56
Oregon 26, Auburn 24
Louisiana vs. Mississippi State
vs. 
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (0-0) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (0-0)
Saturday August 31st
12:00pm
ESPN
Mercedes Benz Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Mississippi State – 20.5 (-110)
Over/Under 60 (-110)
When a team is favored by 3 touchdowns it’s pretty safe to assume that there are a lot of mismatches on the field and or the sidelines. The matchup between Mississippi State and Louisiana would certainly appear to be one of those if you’re just mentioning conferences or perhaps looking back at the beatdown that the Bulldogs put on the Ragin’ Cajuns one year ago. 2019 is a new year and as lopsided as last year’s game was between these two, don’t count on it taking on the exact same shape this time around. Louisiana boasts one of the best running games in the country with a trio of talented backs running behind an offensive line with 5 seniors. Billy Napier is a coach that really seemed to be trending upwards in his first season and will look to take a leap in year two improving on their 7-7 finish. The Cajuns have struggled on defense over the past couple of seasons, however this appears to be a unit that can at least be competitive as it returns 7 starters and added a couple of potential playmakers.
The Bulldogs defense was phenomenal a season ago as they bullied their way through opponents and caused havoc for opposing offenses. This unit is in a bit of a rebuild, and even though it’s still strong, it won’t be quite the powerhouse that it was in 2018. Unless you’re Alabama, it’s tough to lose multiple guys as early draft picks to the NFL and pick right back up where you were. On offense, Mississippi State will be starting Penn State transfer Tommy Stevens. Stevens has the the physical tools, but his decision making and low completion percentage when in duty have been an issue. As was the case on the defense, replacing standout Nick Fitzgerald at QB most likely will lead to at least a bit of a dropoff.
Key Stats – Mississippi State is 1-2 ATS in neutral site games since 2016
This game is not only being played in the Superdome in Louisiana’s home state, but is also the highlight of their season so they’ll be hyped up for sure. Betting against one SEC is scary enough, particularly one that’s been strong against the spread, how about two?
