Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms out there, especially those who gave birth to the nightmare known as The BetCrushers Team. Especially the mothers of our wives who keep us in check. Speaking of keeping in check, we skated by with the Rays first 5 inning wager while cruising home with the full game. Last week’s pair of poor pitching performances in my featured handicaps ended on a high note with Drew Rasmussen and the Rays bullpen holding it down. With that, the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-8-2022 comes at you with another Solo Shot. I’m avoiding the double headers after a weekend of tumultuous weather and hitting an early game that rolls right into the Mother’s Day throwback race at Darlington Raceway. BOL!
2022 Featured Handicap Results
MILWAUKEE BREWERS @ ATLANTA BRAVES (-120)
A. Ashby (L) vs. C. Morton (R)
Straight up, today’s positions are more of a Charlie Morton fade than a full faith and confidence play on Milwaukee rookie starter Aaron Ashby. The 24-year-old Ashby entered the season as the Brewers’ #1 prospect and has truly hit the ground running this season. My main issue is not knowing if the kid will make it through the 4th or 5th inning as manager Craig Counsell breaks him into the role of major league starting pitcher. He has tremendous support in his third start of the year with a strong bullpen and excellent defense. On top of that, Ashby appears to have picked up where he left off in last year’s limited work – strong swing-and-miss stuff, tremendous ground ball rate, and a mid-30% hard hit rate.
Today’s angle is a complete 180 from last Sunday’s approach to a Michael Lorenzen-led Angels squad against a slumping White Sox offense in the cold. That’s a far cry from today’s temps in the mid-60s with very little breeze at Truist Park. And I can’t say that the Atlanta Braves are slumping at the plate per se. However, their .204/.277/.324 slash line this past week leaves a lot to be desired. On the flip side, Milwaukee’s .276/.361/.522 line over the same timeframe is heavily skewed by pounding Cincinnati’s terrible pitching staff in a three-game set. My blended offensive factors actually have these two lineups at the exact same mark given this afternoon’s scenario. Then again, my pessimistic preseason perspective on the Brewers offense weighs on this rating.
Angling Against Charlie
In addition to being on the optimistic side with Aaron Ashby, Charlie Morton presents a tremendous opportunity for the Brewers. Morton’s five starts this season have been extremely uncharacteristic for the 13-year MLB veteran. His trusty fastball/cutter combo has been barely effective and is not really fooling anyone. So many key indicators are in complete contrast from what we’ve seen from him the last 5-6 seasons:
- Swinging strike rate down by about 5%
- Ground ball rate below 40% for the first time in his career
- Career-high 5.36 FIP, 5.51 xFIP, and 5.18 SIERA
- Lowest 1.29 K/BB ratio since his 2008 rookie season with Atlanta
Seems ripe for the pickin’, right? One thing I’ve learned over the years is to never count out a wily veteran. Just look at Rich Hill still spinning it in Boston. Milwaukee’s top half of the lineup is generally clicking – again, Cincy’s pitching can inflate even the poorest offenses – and is presented a tremendous opportunity to take the series against Atlanta with a solid afternoon. The downside to this argument is how the Crew did not score any runs last night in the first 5 innings and only scored 2 in the opening frames Friday night. They could be coming off of their high, which really puts the pressure on Aaron Ashby to be close to perfect. I’ll take my chances and pepper the Brewers with three first 5 inning wagers.
WAGER: [1/3u] Brewers First 5 Innings +105
ALTERNATIVES AND/OR ADDITIONS:
WAGER: [1/3u] Brewers First 5 Innings Over 1.5 Runs -135
WAGER: [1/3u] Brewers First 5 Innings Over 2.5 Runs +140
For the second day in a row, I cannot make my mind up how to play this one. It’s even worse today than last night as I end up with three partial positions against Charlie Morton. Either way, my numbers point to much greater EV on the first 5 inning lines compared to the full game. Ashby offers a greater differential over Morton than Milwaukee’s bullpen does over Atlanta’s. BOL and Happy Mother’s Day!
Heading for Home
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