I must admit that things got a little sketchy when Alek Manoah’s mechanics went south on me last night in the 3rd. But Toronto’ defense had his back and George Springer took care of the scoring as the Blue Jays deliver the W. With immense gratitude to Bo Bichette’s fielding skills, we roll right into the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-12-2022.
2022 Featured Handicap Results
CLEVELAND INDIANS @ CINCINNATI REDS (-116)
S. Bieber (R) vs. T. Mahle (R)
To build on Monday’s theme of picking spots, let’s hit the handicap behind my main ticket on Tuesday’s slate. We get each club’s #1 this afternoon because some teams like these two began their seasons on Thursday. This early in the season I tend to avoid games that have a couple high-4.00 FIP profile guys pitching without anything to convince me otherwise. I’m rolling the dice enough with my bets – no need to shake things up that much.
Keeping a Short Leash
We’ve seen both of these teams have some pretty big offensive days so far…along with a few duds along the way. I make the Reds offense a couple % higher notwithstanding these specific pitchers – the righty Bieber actually presents the stronger part of their splits. But here’s the simple truth when it comes to low-slugging teams like these: scoring is more lumpy than not. It’s generally unreliable. So to help rein in volatility in that phase, I lean on known quantities like Shane Bieber and Tyler Mahle.
Opening Day winner Tyler Mahle earned the Reds’ home opener nod after his strong performance at Atlanta. We pretty much know that Tyler is a guy who gets it done with control – when he’s on, you’re swinging and missing. He faces off against Shane Bieber who pitched in the high winds fairly well on Opening Day. Additionally, I imagine his pitch count will get bumped up as compared to Thursday. In the bigger picture I give him just shy of a 1 run edge over the very capable Mahle who I have a ton of respect for. There is limited history between these lineups and the starters. Joey Votto has hit Bieber decently over the years while Jose Ramirez returns serve against Mahle.
As of early Tuesday morning it’s hard to tell if precipitation will be an issue, otherwise Great American Ballpark should be in the upper 60s with a breeze in from right. Still enough for a slight bias against run production in my handicap though I’m not interested in the total of 8.5. Bullpen edge firmly in favor of Cincy with a day of rest, though Cleveland managed theirs fairly well in the opening series.
WAGER: Guardians First 5 -120
Same scenario as last night: there’s a healthier edge in isolating Bieber in the first 5 inning play than letting the Reds’s slight hitting and bullpen edges kick in. In a vacuum, I make the Cleveland first 5 inning line -150. But there are outstanding question right now regarding which Guardians will sit this afternoon. Missing any two of Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, and Miles Straw hurts their odds by several %, revising my line downward to -133. If backing Shane Bieber against my Redlegs sounds good to you as well, don’t overpay more than -125.
Heading for Home
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