There’s nothing like it in racing: the Bristol night race. Every August, the Cup Series teams duke it out in the northeastern corner of Tennessee as they jockey for playoff positioning. Our NASCAR race preview for Bristol will get you prepared to take advantage of betting opportunities Saturday night.
It’s going to be a totally different experience at Bristol Motor Speedway than the wide-open racing we saw on Sunday at Michigan. If all goes well, this race won’t be influenced by fuel mileage like last week was. It snagged our Top 10 pick, Kurt Busch, on the final lap and pulled him right out of the money.
Bristol Motor Speedway Track Overview
Bristol is commonly referred to as “The Last Great Colosseum”; the Cup circuit’s shortest track (1/2 mile) surrounded by the largest grandstands (seating for over 150,000 people). The concrete surface is steeply banked to keep speeds as high as possible while only having 650-foot straightaways. The pit boxes are separated into two areas along each of the straightaways. BMS hosts two NASCAR Cup Series per year: the August night race and a daytime running in April. Both are run over 500 laps.
Trading paint is an expected part of racing at Bristol. Let’s be honest, there’s not a lot of real estate on the track and these boys want to make their mark at the Colosseum. Yellow flags are prevalent (an average of about 9 per race) and lap traffic plays a big role in clogging up the track.
Handicapping such a volatile race is a major challenge. However, there is one guy who seems to have made picking the winner an easy task lately. Kyle Busch (+300) won three of his last four races at Bristol, sandwiching a 20th place finish in the 2018 night race. To put it in perspective, Kyle got knocked out of four of the five races prior to his current hot streak. You can be a damn good racer, but the Bristol madness can take you out in a hurry. The short runs and steep banks of this 1/2-mile long, 40-foot wide track make for some of the most intense action in NASCAR.
Practices & Qualifying
The Saturday night race (7:30 ET) is preceded by a full day of qualification and practice sessions on Friday. As always, pay close attention to how the teams prepare through the two practices into qualifying. Practices are scheduled for 11:05 ET and 1:05 ET on Friday, leading to the 5:45 ET single-car runs that will set the race’s starting grid. A key takeaway from the practice runs is how various cars maneuver through traffic with the high-downforce package in play. Our final pre-race analysis will drop Saturday morning so you have the latest intel before solidifying your betting card.
Passing has been downright awkward with this package. However, Bristol adds a couple more complications to this matter: shorter straightaways and lap traffic. Traffic is always a concern for drivers needing to make moves from the rear or mid-pack up to the front. The additional wrinkle at The Colosseum is the slower lap traffic that comes into play more than any other Cup Series track. All positions will have to contend with traffic throughout the 500 laps.
The Opening Odds
Martin Truex, Jr. and Kevin Harvick opened as the usual suspects right below Kyle Busch on the board in the +400 range. Truex hasn’t realized much success at Bristol, while Harvick is a perennial contender. Kevin has seven T10 finishes in his last eight races, including a win at the 2016 night race. Early action has driven Kyle Busch down to around +300 while pushing these two powerhouses into the +700 range.
Joey Logano (+700) and Kyle Larson (+850) are a pair of guys who have posted a pair of T5 finishes in their last three races at Bristol. They rounded out the Top 5 in the 2018 night race along with Kyle Busch (+300), Chase Elliott (+2000), and Erik Jones (+2000). We don’t have a blanket rule for what price constitutes “value”, but it’s tough to consider anything below +1000 to win at Bristol a value play.
Who Deserves Your Money?
Denny Hamlin: The Man With the Plan
Denny is having a banner season with three Cup Series wins and a fourth place position in the playoff standings. He comes to Bristol riding a strong wave of five straight T5 finishes, including a win at Pocono. Hamlin’s work at The Colosseum has been quite good in recent years.
When it comes to racing Bristol in August, Denny Hamlin is the guy to look at. Although he finished a disappointing 14th place in the 2018 night race, he was 3rd in 2015, 2016, and 2017. Look at his matchup with Brad Keselowski, who hasn’t found the Top 15 here since 2015. Hamlin is running better overall since Kentucky and has more consistent results at the front of the pack in the Bristol night race. Hamlin (-115) over Keselowski is a pre-qualification matchup play this week.
Kyle Larson: In the Mix
Kyle Larson has seen his odds pop from +2000 to +850. Despite having a disappointing 19th place finish in the April race, he nailed back-to-back runner-ups in his prior Bristol runnings. Kyle stalked the lead pack last week in Michigan and took advantage of other teams’ fuel issues to finish in 3rd place. That made three T10s in a row and put him in 13th place in the playoff standings. He needs to finish these last few races strong to get into the postseason. Motivation, anyone?
Larson is paired with the big guns this week for betting matchups. He faces off against Truex, Jr., Logano, and Harvick. He’s currently a -115 pick ’em with Truex and will return +105 against the latter two drivers. I don’t like the Logano matchup with Joey’s recent Bristol success, while Harvick is a guy who is dependable enough to consistently finish around the Top 10. Truex has been running very well in his last four races, though we are skeptical that success will translate to Bristol; a track where he has finished no better than 8th since 2012. Larson (-115) over Truex, Jr. is a play we are considering; at worst it will be a wait-and-see position made during or after the Friday sessions.
Kurt Busch: The BetCrushers’ Usual Suspect
Kurt Busch can be found on the to-win odds board at +1300. This is interesting, considering that he won last year’s night race and placed 2nd in the April running. We saw an early move that knocked his odds down from +2000 on Tuesday morning. Like his brother, Kurt missed the Top 20 in three of his four Bristol races prior to his current two-race hot streak.
The interesting thing about Kurt at Bristol is that he’s made significant moves when qualifying 25th or lower. This has happened three times since 2015: 26th in 2015, 25th in 2017, and 27th in 2019. Kurt finished 3rd, 5th, and 2nd in those races. If Kurt qualifies poorly on Friday, consider taking a bite on a Top 10 play with a good plus-money price.
A Young Gun Trifecta
A trifecta of notable young guns are featured in several matchups that our eyes will be on through Friday. Erik Jones, Chase Elliott, and Ryan Blaney are together in two pairings, and Kurt Busch is tied into Jones and Elliott. We want to evaluate all of these guys for betting opportunities after practice and qualifying is finished.
Erik Jones
Erik Jones comes to Bristol off of a disappointing 18th place finish at Michigan, where he never realistically was in contention. He was one of the Cup Series’ hottest drivers until that mediocre showing. However, Jones has finished 2nd and 5th in his only two Bristol night races. 17th, 26th, and 24th place finishes in the day races are concerning though.
Chase Elliott
After slogging through the mid-summer, Chase Elliott is showing some signs of life. He followed up a win at Watkins Glen with a decent 9th place finish at Michigan. Elliott has bounced around in his short career at Bristol, though one thing is for certain: he runs one mean qualification lap. He’s started no worse than 6th in five of his seven races on the half-mile oval.
Ryan Blaney
Blaney’s strong Michigan run was compromised by fuel mileage as well. Before that, he had consistently finished in the Top 15 for the past couple months and has been a guy worth backing in matchups. Blaney has been in the Top 10 in the last two Bristol night races and notched a 4th in the April running. The negative is that he’s been outside the Top 20 in half of his eight Bristol races despite qualifying well most of the time.
That volatility calls into question his -145 matchup over Erik Jones. Jones has been equally hit-or-miss here as well, but his position as a +115 dog to Blaney screams “value play”.
