Super Wild Card Weekend Preview:
Super Wild Card Weekend looks a little different this year with the playoff format shaken up and including a Monday Night Football contest. We hunted for the best value in player props of the six games, and were able to find wagers we like in every game with the exception of the 49ers and Cowboys. We have six players we’re keyed in on, that includes three quarterbacks and three running backs. Let the playoffs begin and best of luck with all of your wagers!
Our Picks:
Mac Jones – Under 204.5 Yards Passing (-110)
Showdown number three between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills on Saturday offers up the playoff debut for rookie quarterback Mac Jones. The Alabama product was a non-factor in the first meeting, as you may recall him only needing to throw the football three times in that bizarre road win. Jones had to throw more in their more recent meeting, and it wasn’t pretty, as he was battered and confused for much of the contest. He’ll be playing in a frozen Highmark Stadium against the league’s top rated overall defense, and passing defense. The Bills lead in every major statistical passing category, and should be able to get some pressure on Jones, even behind is very good offensive line. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels are going to do everything they can to rely on their running game, so Jones might be a little limited on his pass attempts again. One other important note, the Pats will be without starting left tackle Isaiah Wynn, which isn’t a great thing for protecting the blindside of Jones. This should be a competitive ballgame, so the threat of garbage yards should be off the table for Jones and the Patriots. Even with such a low benchmark, we’re hitting the under here.
Jalen Hurts – Over 48.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
If you were hammering the over on rushing yards for Jalen Hurts throughout the season, you’re account is sitting pretty. The young QB routinely cruised over, before an ankle injury and some easier wins slowed down that near guaranteed victory. Even though Hurts hasn’t cleared his rushing mark over his last three starts, we’re banking on him getting back over against the Buccaneers. All quarterbacks who can run, and particularly young quarterbacks are often a little jittery in crucial situations. As a result, they tend to be even more willing to tuck and run than in the regular season. In some instances, their coaches even emphasize not throwing interceptions and encouraging them to run. Hurts says he’s healthy and ready to go against a Buccaneers team that has been susceptible to giving up some big plays against running QBs this season. Expect a lot of Hurts with the ball cradled, and expect him to regain his cash cow, over rush yards from earlier in the season.
Kyler Murray – Over 37.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
All you need to do for this breakdown is read the above regarding Jalen Hurts. Realistically speaking, it’s about the exact same thought process. We’ve got some history on our side here as well as Murray averaged 50 yards rushing in his two games against the Rams this season. Without DeAndre Hopkins as a target, and in a game where he will feel some pressure from the likes of Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd and Von Miller, expect Murray to put his athleticism on display for the world to see. If you read our breakdown you probably noticed that we stated the only way the Cardinals can pull this upset is if Murray is spectacular. Getting the road win will still be difficult, but Murray should end up being spectacular, at the very least running the football on Monday night.
Darren Waller – Under 60.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
Injuries have somewhat thwarted what could have been another really strong season for talented tight end Darren Waller. He returned a week ago after his injuries and a stint on the Covid-19 list, and played a fair amount, although was limited in productivity. It’s tough to know exactly what Waller is dealing with in terms of both injuries and in his recovery from Covid, where he admittedly said he was extremely winded after just a few plays. The Raiders have to get themselves fired up after traveling across the country to play the Cincinnati Bengals in what looks like will be temperatures of sub-freezing weather. Throughout his career Derek Carr has struggled in those elements, and there’s not much that would lead us to believe he’ll fair much better on Saturday. The Bengals have not been great against opposing tight ends statistically, however when you breakdown the numbers, they’ve faced the toughest in the league this season. Between the weather and the uncertainties with Waller, we’ll go under and make the Carr and Waller earn it here.
Leonard Fournette – Over 59.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
It’s the return of playoff Lenny as Leonard Fournette comes off of injured reserve just in time to give the Buccaneers a needed boost on offense. Our initial play was to hammer Fournette as a receiver, as he’ll likely get a lot of checkdowns from Tom Brady with the absence of Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, but we’re going to go with his rushing total instead. The main reason for this is the potential for tropical storm like weather expected during the game in Tampa on Sunday. Rain and heavy winds are projected, which could make the Bucs lean a little heavier on the running game. In previous years, the Eagles were one of the toughest teams at slowing down the run, and very vulnerable against the pass. It’s been a bit of a reversal this year, so Fournette should find enough room to get going in this contest. Another thing to note, is backup running back Ronald Jones II looks as though he’ll miss this game, leaving Le’Veon Bell and Ke’Shawn Vaughn as the backups to Fournette. Vaughn has had troubles with ball security and catching the rock, and Bell is basically an insurance policy at this point. With fresh legs, we anticipate that Fournette should get a lot of work, and based on how he came on in the second half of the season, we’ll take a crack at his rushing total over.
Devin Singletary – Over 15.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
If you haven’t been paying attention in recent weeks, Devin Singletary has emerged as the top running back for the Buffalo Bills and is playing over 70% of the snap count. He’s taken full advantage of the opportunity and given the Bills a legitimate threat at the running back position. He’s also been a viable weapon in the passing game, both in designed screen plays and as a check down option for quarterback Josh Allen. As you’ve already heard, the weather is going to be chilly Saturday evening off of Lake Erie, which means that the passing game might be slightly constricted. That could mean some additional opportunities for Singletary as a pass receiver in those check down situations. With it being a playoff game, you’d have to imagine that the gunslinging Allen will take what the defense gives him early on and not be afraid to use Singletary out of the backfield in some safe spots. In their last meeting against the Patriots Singletary caught 5 balls for 39 yards. We’ve got him projected grabbing 3 to 4 for around 20 yards in this contest. That gives us a small cushion against his total of 15.5 yards.
Sony Michel – Over 56.5 Yards Rushing (-125)
The Los Angeles Rams are glad to have their initially-planned opening day starter back on the roster as they welcomed back Cam Akers following his offseason torn achilles injury. The 2nd year back managed only 3 yards on 5 carries, but it’s a nice story to see him back on the field, and just in time for the Rams who lost Darrell Henderson, Jr. at the position. The real story of the Rams running game this season has been the evolution of Sony Michel, who was acquired at the beginning of the season from the Patriots after Akers went down. Michel has been impressive and earned the carries for Los Angeles, running hard and looking quick. With Akers still working his way back, Michel should have plenty of opportunities in the third matchup against the Cardinals, a team who hasn’t been great stopping the run. The Cards did a decent job against Michel in their first matchup holding him to 79 yards on 20 carries, but an effort like that is all you’d need to go over his yardage total in the Wild Card round. Look for similar output, which will get Michel and any bettors rallying behind him to the pay window.
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