BETCRUSHERS PREVIOUS WEEKS RESULTS
Yanni – None
JJ – None
BETCRUSHERS SEASON RESULTS TO DATE
Yanni – None
JJ – None
OVERVIEW
After an eight month sabbatical the National Football League is finally ready to kick off its 100th season. Week 1 provides an abundance of optimism for both the 32 NFL franchises and those of us looking to score some profit from our respective sportsbooks. While it’s tempting to load up on wagers from the excitement of opening week, it’s never a bad idea to dip the toe in the water slowly while calibrating the trends and values of each team. If you’re new to following BetCrushers we’ll set the table for you with how we distribute our analysis and information. Our weekly picks segment provides a breakdown of each game along with our takes against the spread and over/under totals. Although we handicap and provide picks for every game, we are much more selective on what we are actually betting ourselves. In addition to our weekly picks article, you will find the games/props/teasers we are betting on our weekly “featured plays” article each week. The 2019 season should be a fun one, so bet wisely, pace yourself, and best of luck to everyone.
vs. 
GREEN BAY PACKERS (0-0) at CHICAGO BEARS (0-0)
Thursday – September 5th – 8:20pm
Spread: Bears -3
Over/Under: 46
Public Money Percentage: Green Bay 54%
The Breakdown:
The NFL’s oldest rivalry kicks off the season in a game that promises two teams who will be posturing early for dominance in the NFC North. All eyes will be on Aaron Rodgers as usual as we’ll be watching to see if the old magic can return to the QB under new head coach Matt LaFleur. Nothing like going on the road against what will very possibly be the top defensive unit in the league to kick things off. If anyone can navigate that kind of a start to a season it’s definitely Rodgers.
A key for GB in this game and really in their season will be the play of their offensive line and ability to develop a consistent run game. They should be able to do that this season, but against this Bear’s defense could be another story. Green Bay’s defense could really be a work in progress to open the season as they’ve shuffled out a lot of familiar faces to get younger and faster. Mitch Trubisky proved a lot of people wrong a year ago and his play this year could determine how much success this Bear’s team has. We may be in the minority in our concern over Chicago’s running game. Tarik Cohen is an electric player to be sure, however the Packers could be able to match up with him in his newly featured role. Green Bay needs to win the turnover battle if they’re going to win this game, something that is not easy to do against the Bears. The buzz in the air of opening night could provide a lot of fireworks but don’t count on it. Unless these teams come out smoking, this game more than likely will be a bit of a slugfest. NUGGET: The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 primetime night games.
Yanni’s Pick – Packers +3 (Bears 26, Packers 24)
JJ’s Pick – Bears -3 (Bears 26, Packers 21)
vs. 
LOS ANGELES RAMS (0-0) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (0-0)
Sunday – September 8th – 1:00pm
Spread: Rams -3
Over/Under: 51
Public Money Percentage: Los Angeles Rams 67%
The Breakdown:
This matchup is the epitome of why week 1 can be difficult to handicap and why we generally go a little easy early in the season. There are so many unknowns and variables that this game will be more telling for future plays than it will be for a strong week 1 wager. Neither team played many of their starters in the preseason, but questions still loom with the health of stars like Cam Newton, Toddy Gurley and Greg Olsen.
What’s even more of a question for this matchup is the mental toughness and overall identities of these two teams. With the Rams we have the obvious question of what kind of a Super Bowl loss hangover will they have? Can Sean McVay’s potent offense regain it’s form that lead them to regular season dominance? For Carolina, it’s easy to remember how poorly they played down the stretch, but without a healthy Newton at QB and his favorite target Greg Olsen at tight end. It seems like a distant memory, but this team started last season at 6-2, so it’s fair to think that they’re undervalued entering the 2019 season. The Rams have a huge matchup at WR as Carolina’s secondary is a potential liability. Is Newton healthy enough to hold down the fort at home? We won’t be playing this game, but if you’re looking for a possible bet, the first half under would be what we’re looking at. NUGGET: The total has stayed under in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams.
Yanni’s Pick – Rams -3 (Rams 26, Panthers 21)
JJ’s Pick – Rams -3 (Rams 26, Panthers 20)
vs. 
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (0-0) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (0-0)
Sunday – September 8th – 1:00pm
Spread: Eagles -8.5
Over/Under: 46.5
Public Money Percentage: Even
The Breakdown:
If you’ve followed any of BetCrushers posts you’ve probably figured out that we’re pretty high on the Eagles this year. What you may not know is we’re also fairly high on the Redskins. Not to necessarily be a playoff type team, but to be competitive. Their defense is underrated and even though their offense isn’t particularly dynamic, they should be able to not put them in a spot that would cost them games.
Carson Wentz is eager to re-establish himself as an elite talent at QB and he certainly has the weapons to do so. While the Redskins should be able to hold up against the Eagles running game, on paper, it looks like they’ll really struggle to stop the skill positions on the outside. Zach Ertz is always a matchup problem, but don’t be surprised if the wide receivers make some big plays in this one. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Eagles show off their new “old” weapon Desean Jackson on the outside against one of his other former teams. The Redskins on the other hand aren’t exactly loaded at wide receiver which is how you would want to ideally attack the Eagles defense. The Skins’ will start Case Keenum at QB, but he’s pretty much keeping the spot warm and most likely looking over his shoulder at rookie Dwayne Haskins. This one could be close early on, but the Eagles should make enough plays to secure a double digit win. The Redskins have struggled opening the season just 1-5 straight up and 1-5 ATS over the previous six years. Because this is a divisional game and we do think Washington is not getting the credit they deserve as a team that will battle, we elected to tease the Eagles this week just to protect against the possible field goal victory. (See our Week 1 plays article).
Yanni’s Pick – Eagles -8.5 (Eagles 30, Redskins 17)
JJ’s Pick – Eagles (Eagles 26, Redskins 17)
vs. 
BUFFALO BILLS (0-0) at NEW YORK JETS (0-0)
Sunday – September 8th – 1:00pm
Spread: Jets -3
Over/Under: 40
Public Money Percentage: 51% Buffalo
The Breakdown:
The AFC East matchup between the Bills and Jets is another game that we’ll be steering clear of. These teams have a lot of similarities as they’ll both be looking for their second year quarterbacks to make the leap in their sophomore year. These teams are both built around running first and playing sound defense. In a game that is constantly changing, these teams know and understand each other about as well as any two in the league. Both squads have a high ceiling this year, however it’s probable that at least one, if not both could find some growing pains along the way.
The Bills will look to their running back by committee (minus Shady McCoy) to pace them offensively. It will be very interesting to see how much they turn to Josh Allen and the passing game with the addition of some new weapons on the outside. Cole Beasley is a great addition for a young quarterback that should help keep the chains moving on third down. On defense, the Bills have a pretty stout unit on paper with one big “if”. If they can get pressure without having to bring the blitz. If they’re able to do that they’ll have one of the top units in the conference. The Jets invested heavily in free agency on both sides of the ball so the big watch here is trying to see how well this newly molded unit can come together. Adam Gase unorthodox style is also worth noting. Will this Jet’s team come to play for their new leader? Although there have been a few blowouts over the past decade, these teams normally play games that are competitive deep into the fourth quarter. We’d plan for that same type of game in this one. NUGGET: The favorite is 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings of these two teams.
Yanni’s Pick – Bills +3 (Jets 20, Bills 18)
JJ’s Pick – Jets -3 (Jets 21, Bills 17)
vs. 
ATLANTA FALCONS (0-0) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (0-0)
Sunday – September 8th – 1:00pm
Spread: Vikings -3.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Public Money Percentage: 57% Atlanta
The Breakdown:
Two underachieving 2018 teams square off in Minnesota as two teams that also have a lot of similarities square off here. The Falcons season was derailed early by a slew of injuries to a defense that was already less than stellar. The Vikings on the other hand never got things going under new quarterback Kirk Cousins and went from Super Bowl contender a year previous to sitting at home for the playoffs. Both teams enter the season with big expectations and it’s likely that both could find success.
Because of the Falcons poor record many don’t realize what a great season Matt Ryan had last year, at least statistically speaking. Of course that’s nothing new for Ryan as he needs wins more than he needs stats at this point in his career. This Falcons offense returns most of it’s core from a year ago and that’s scary for opponents. The Vikings secondary is not quite as deep as it has been so expect the Falcons to have some success throwing the ball down the field. Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith may find some trouble running the ball but don’t be surprised to see them involved in the passing game. The same can be said on the other side of the ball regarding Kirk Cousins throwing the ball down the field. Cousins had a disappointing season, but he did have some strong games at home and against weak defenses. The Falcons enter the season more stout simply due to having some key players back, but they’re still susceptible in the secondary which means the best WR duo in the league of Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs should have a nice game. Dalvin Cook could be the wild card in this one. If he can get the running game going for the Vikes they will prove too much for the Falcons to handle. Homefield is obviously key in the NFL, and even more so for these two teams. Atlanta should be able to keep pace with the Vikings in this one and it has all the makings of a field goal game.
Yanni’s Pick – Falcons +3.5 (Vikings 31, Falcons 28)
JJ’s Pick – Vikings -3.5 (Vikings 27, Falcons 20)
vs. 
BALTIMORE RAVENS (0-0) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (0-0)
Sunday – September 8th – 1:00pm
Spread: Baltimore -7
Over/Under: 37.5
Public Money Percentage: 68% Baltimore
The Breakdown:
In handicapping this one we’ve had to change our pick 3 different times, but we’ll promise you we’re now locked in on the Ravens. The Dolphins were given some of the longest odds to make the playoffs this year… And that was BEFORE they went into complete tank (er rebuild) mode. When the Dolphins announced Ryan Fitzpatrick as the week 1 starter we moved our pick from the Ravens over to the Dolphins. (The spread was Ravens -5 at that point). But with the Dolphins recent moves trading away talent in exchange for draft picks we’re back on the Ravens, big time. Throw in the fact that rumblings in the Dolphins locker room is the players are already firmly against new head coach Brian Flores and this looks like it will be a disastrous season for the Fins’.
When Fitzpatrick was named starting QB for the Dolphins there was a lot of initial value as he’s going against what we believe is an overrated Ravens defense. (When’s the last time you heard that phrase with the Baltimore D?) We know we can count on Fitzpatrick slinging it around and usually starting out with a bang no matter where he has been before fading into backup QB mode. On the flip side even with the Ravens going with the “you can’t stop us running” approach, it should work in this one. The Dolphins front seven is not equipped to deal with the speed or the power of the Ravens running game. Don’t expect Lamar Jackson to throw much, or have to throw much. The biggest intrigue in this one may be what the attendance will be like for this one in Miami. If you checked our our week 1 plays, we like the over in this one. NUGGET: Baltimore has owned the Dolphins going 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Yanni’s Pick – Ravens -7 (Ravens 31, Dolphins 16)
JJ’s Pick – Ravens -7 (Ravens 23, Dolphins 14)
vs. 
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (0-0) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (0-0)
Sunday – September 8th – 1:00pm
Spread: Kansas City -4
Over/Under: 52
Public Money Percentage: 66% Kansas City
The Breakdown:
You’ll never make a living in the sports betting world if you’re laying points on the road in the NFL along with the public, but there are exceptions to every rule. I mean the public has to win sometimes right? This should be one of those times. We had Kansas City as the 4th team in our preseason rankings without Tyreek Hill in the lineup. With him in the lineup the Chiefs should be the easy favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. This offense is stacked with weapons and matchup nightmares while phenom QB Patrick Mahomes should be settled in now as a new face of the league. Jacksonville is banking on free agent QB and former Super Bowl hero Nick Foles being the missing piece to bring this team back to relevance. Can their defense regain it’s swagger from two seasons ago? NOTE – This game could be impacted by Hurricane Dorian.
One of the best one-on-one matchups of the opening week is the previously mentioned Tyreek Hill lining up against trash talking Jalen Ramsey. Two of the best at their respective positions should provide for some high-level competition. It’s possible that Ramsey could slow down Hill, but it’s tough to seeing them finding an answer to the other weapons on the field. If the Jags are going to have any chance they’ll need to have their Sacksonville pass rush geared up with rookie Josh Allen and completely underappreciated Calais Campbell bringing the heat on Mahomes. The other key for Jacksonville will be if they can get Leonard Fournette and the running game established early. Kansas City has some big names on their defense who need to prove they can win the battle in the trenches not only in this game but throughout the season. Their other vulnerability is at the cornerback position, but the Jaguars wide receivers don’t strike a lot of fear in anyone. Duuuuval will be rocking for this one and it will most likely be a close game in the first half. Expect the Chiefs to pull away in the second half and come away with the win and the cover.
Yanni’s Pick – Chiefs -4 (Chiefs 30, Jaguars 20)
JJ’s Pick – Chiefs -4 (Chiefs 31, Jaguars 24)
vs. 
TENNESSEE TITANS (0-0) at CLEVELAND BROWNS (0-0)
Sunday – September 8th – 1:00pm
Spread: Cleveland -5.5
Over/Under: 45.5
Public Money Percentage: 54% Cleveland
The Breakdown:
Are their any fans more hyped for the 2019 season than the Dawg Pound and Cleveland fan? It’s hard to blame them as it has to be exciting when your team is favored to win it’s division after being the most overall embarrassing franchise in the league over the past 20 years. This team is suddenly loaded and the biggest question mark may be how they handle the high expectations. Tennessee fans are a little more jaded as they’re looking for Marcus Mariota to prove that he is a franchise quarterback that can lead the team to greatness.
Any chance the Titans have to win this game will revolve around their ability to get banged up Derrick Henry, Dion Lewis and the running game going. When the Titans do win games they’re usually dominating the line of scrimmage. Tennessee doesn’t get blown out often for this exact reason. They have no problem playing ugly football to stay competitive. That formula should keep them in a lot of games as usual, but most likely this won’t be one of them. Mariota is going to see a lot of pressure from Myles Garrett and new addition Olivier Vernon, especially without tackle Taylor Lewan who is suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. On the other side all eyes will be on the Baker Mayfield to OBJ connection mixed in with a little Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb and David Njoku. Mike Vrabel will have the Titans well prepared, however those playmakers should prove too much for the Titans to handle. Throw in the fact this stadium is going to be electric and the Browns should take care of business at home.
Yanni’s Pick – Browns -5.5 (Browns 24, Titans 16)
JJ’s Pick – Titans +5.5 (Browns 24, Titans 20)
vs. 
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (0-0) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (0-0)
Sunday – September 8th – 4:05pm
Spread: Los Angeles -7
Over/Under: 43.5
Public Money Percentage: 55% Los Angeles
The Breakdown:
When Andrew Luck surprisingly announced his retirement it was a roller coaster for the Colts in terms of their plans and expectations. Talk went from the Colt’s world ending and quickly morphed into what an amazing backup Jacoby Brissett will be. In this situation, the truth is somewhere in the middle. Brissett should do a respectable job for this Colts team, but it’s probably a good idea to table any playoff discussions for them despite a solid overall roster. The Chargers were a darkhorse AFC favorite early on and now have a lot of question marks as well with Melvin Gordon in a contract dispute and tackle Russell Okung out with a blood clot.
Austin Ekeler was a great backup to Melvin Gordon a season ago and the Chargers are willing to roll the dice with him as lead back at this point. It’s a totally different animal when you’re expected to be the workhorse and carry the load. The Colts were solid last year against the run and second year linebacker Darius Leonard should lead a good group again that will be forced to do even more. Philip Rivers is approaching Brady/Brees range in age and numbers as he still searches for that elusive Super Bowl. He hasn’t showed any signs of slowing down yet and and with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams he should be able to sling it as well as he ever has. Hunter Henry will be a key for this offense and in this game. If the Colts want to keep this game close the offensive line is going to be critical. They’ll need to get their own running game going with Marlon Mack and give Jacoby Brissett time when he needs to throw. It’s certainly possible the Chargers could blow the Colts out in this one, but we’re leaning just slightly in favor of Indy hanging around enough to keep this one interesting.
Yanni’s Pick – Colts +7 (Chargers 24, Colts 19)
JJ’s Pick – Colts +7 (Chargers 24, Colts 20)
vs. 
CINCINNATI BENGALS (0-0) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (0-0)
Sunday – September 8th – 4:05pm
Spread: Seattle -9.5
Over/Under: 44
Public Money Percentage: 54% Seattle
The Breakdown:
The Zac Taylor era gets underway in one of the toughest places for a team to travel to and play. The Bengals are in an awkward spot of transitioning while still having some talent and veterans on their roster including quarterback Andy Dalton. Meanwhile in Seattle Pete Carroll is doing his best USC impersonation reloading with new players including Jadeveon Clowney, a piece they desperately needed if they want to compete in the NFC.
Originally we thought this Bengals team could be a great early season play both against the spread and with team total overs. Injuries have decimated the offensive line and perennial Pro-Bowler AJ Green finds himself starting the season on the shelf. Winning in Seattle is tough enough without going into battle wounded and short-handed. If the Bengals can somehow piece together some blocking this game should be closer than most think. If they can’t establish any fight in the trenches it’ll be a very long day for them. Seattle will be looking to find themselves offensively for the first time without their quiet and stable wideout weapon Doug Baldwin. This Seattle offense doesn’t look too fantastic on paper, but we all know that Russell Wilson always seems to find a way to get things done. The Bengals defense may be able to hold up against the pass and they’ll need to in order to stay in this way. It’s just hard to see them stopping the run and Wilson from making big plays when needed. A blowout is a possibility in this one if the Bengals offensive line can’t hold up. Ultimately, we’d have to take the 9.5 if we were betting it. (We’re definitely not). The over also seems like it could be in play with this one if you need some action on it. NUGGET: The Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to the west coast.
Yanni’s Pick – Bengals +9.5 (Seahawks 31, Bengals 23)
JJ’s Pick – Seahawks -9.5 (Seahawks 27, Bengals 17)
vs. 
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (0-0) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (0-0)
Sunday – September 8th – 4:25pm
Spread: Tampa Bay -1
Over/Under: 50
Public Money Percentage: 61% San Francisco
The Breakdown:
The Buccaneers and 49ers both find themselves in the unenviable position of playing in divisions that seem to have some top-heavy talent. While it’s not a foregone conclusion that they cannot win their respective division, it’s pretty clear that these teams will be fighting an uphill battle throughout the season. Bruce Arians has a couple of big objectives early on with the team. Mold Jameis Winston into the quarterback he flashes to be at times, and re-build a defense that was shredded consistently in 2018. The Niners are hoping that a healthy Jimmy Garroppolo at quarterback is the missing piece needed to propel them forward.
There are a couple of big injury questions for the Bucs as their stud WR Mike Evans and linebacker Lavonte David are both questionable to be in the lineup. Both are expected to play. The Bucs offensive line struggled mightily a year ago both in run blocking and pass protection. You don’t want to put too much stock into preseason, but they sure didn’t show big signs of improvement in limited action. San Francisco has spent a lot of money and early draft picks on building their defensive line so this will be a good test to see if they can dominate in a game where they probably should. Tampa Bay does have a clear advantage in the skill positions and will try to keep the tempo fast early to wear down the defense of the Niners. The biggest concern the Bucs will have defensively is how to slow down TE George Kittle. Kittle was unstoppable, particularly late in the season a year ago and he is a true gamechanger in the league. Arians made it no secret that their defense will be focused on stopping Kittle. If they can do that they should be able to squeeze out the opening week win at home.
Yanni’s Pick – Buccaneers -1 (Buccaneers 29, 49ers 27)
JJ’s Pick – Buccaneers -1 (Buccaneers 31, 49ers 24)
vs. 
NEW YORK GIANTS (0-0) at DALLAS COWBOYS (0-0)
Sunday – September 8th – 4:25pm
Spread: Dallas -7
Over/Under: 45
Public Money Percentage: 59% New York
The Breakdown:
There’s some actual excitement in New York despite a ridiculously crazy offseason mostly due to the way number 6 overall pick QB Daniel Jones has played during his first preseason. Jones looked every bit the part of a franchise quarterback, which is exactly what the team needs as they phase out Eli Manning during this season. Because of that excitement it somehow seems like a lot of people, including the media are all of a sudden talking about this Giants team as a surprise playoff bunch. Slow down. We may be a little harsh on our rating of the Giants (they stink), but there is no way this team is making the playoffs. They’re a Saquon Barkley injury away from going 2-14. Dallas as usual has had no shortage of storylines and drama over the summer. We’ll all watch closely at how Jason Garrett navigates this mess and attempts to get a little out of a lot.
Speaking of head coaches, this could be the week one matchup that pits two of the most mediocre (to be kind) coaching staffs against each other. The players should decide this matchup and with all due respect to superhuman Saquon Barkley, the Cowboys have a big edge in that department. As crazy at it sounds, we’ll go ahead and take Ezekiel Elliott out of this conversation. At the time of writing this, it looks 50-50 whether or not he’ll be available in some capacity for this game. But let’s assume he isn’t. It shouldn’t matter. We don’t expect Dallas to have too much trouble moving the ball through the air or with Tony Pollard and Alfred Morris. The Dallas defense, although banged up a bit to start the season, matches up well against the Giants. Barkley will no doubt see stacked boxes in an effort to make someone else beat them. It’s unlikely that Sterling Shepherd or anyone else is going to be able to do that. We’re passing on this game as these two teams tend to play close games no matter what the situation or talent level. With it looking like Zeke will be absent for this matchup we’ll give just a slight nod to the G-Men to sneak out the cover.
Yanni’s Pick – Giants +7 (Cowboys 22, Giants 17)
JJ’s Pick – Giants +7 (Cowboys 24, Giants 20)
vs. 
DETROIT LIONS (0-0) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (0-0)
Sunday – September 8th – 4:25pm
Spread: Detroit -2.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Public Money Percentage: 62% Detroit
The Breakdown:
The Lions and Cardinals face-off in a matchup of two teams that are predicted to finish in the basement of their divisions. That doesn’t mean this game won’t have some eyes on it as the world will be watching to see the debut of number one overall draft pick Kyler Murray at quarterback. Detroit has some nice pieces on their roster and are looking to help Matthew Stafford make the leap into the playoffs.
If you’re a rookie quarterback with high expectations, it’s not the worst thing in the world to be playing at home against a team that doesn’t figure to have a top-tier defense. The Cardinals have made the commitment to bringing David Johnson and the running game back this season in an effort to support their young QB. The Lions defense has some potential holes, but they do look solid against the run so I wouldn’t expect the Cardinals to get much too going on the ground. For the Lions, they’ll also be trying to establish a running game and mix in some big plays with their wideouts and rookie TE T.J. Hockenson. The Lions tight end has really impressed his teammates and could develop into a premier player in the league. Even though neither defense is overly stout, don’t expect a ton of scoring in this one, the under could very well be in play. It’s really tough to take the Lions as a road favorite, or to win at all. I mean the Cardinals have to win a few games, right? This one could go easily go either way. NUGGET: The Lions last seven games of 2018 all stayed under the total.
Yanni’s Pick – Lions -2.5 (Lions 20, Cardinals 16)
JJ’s Pick – Cardinals +2.5 (Lions 21, Cardinals 20)
vs. 
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (0-0) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (0-0)
Sunday – September 8th – 8:20pm
Spread: New England -6
Over/Under: 51
Public Money Percentage: 54% Pittsburgh
The Breakdown:
Here we are starting another season and trying to rationalize why the Patriots won’t be playing in another Super Bowl this year. Sure Brady is a year older and showed some signs of being mortal in 2018 en route to their usual winning style. If Brady does have any falloff it may not matter as this is one of the more balanced and stronger Pats teams in recent years. They can run and play defense possibly even better than they can throw the ball. Pittsburgh is a lot less of a sure thing. Mike Tomlin is looking to re-focus a team that was the epitome of a dramatic distraction last year. Even though Brady and NE have owned the Steelers, these two teams have played some pretty exciting games in the past and we’d expect this one to land in that same category.
With the departure of Antonio Brown the Steelers suddenly seem a lot easier to defend on the outside despite what should be a Pro Bowl type season from Juju Smith-Schuster. It’s likely to think that Bill Belichik will try to take Smith Schuster away and force the Steelers to grind out a win with the running game. That’s not a horrible spot to be in if you’re Pittsburgh with James Conner and their offensive line set up to have another strong season. It just doesn’t seem like the Steelers are going to have enough firepower to outscore the Pats in this one. To pull off the upset the Steelers are going to need a huge game from one of the best defenses in the league. When you breakdown the matchup it’s not unreasonable to think Pittsburgh can get pressure on Brady, but for whatever reason Brady just never seems phased by the Steeler’s defense. Expect to see some heavy doses of James White in this one as it’ll be tough to run on Pittsburgh and Brady likes to check to White in big games against tough defenses. When it’s all said and done, there’ll probably be a lot of punches thrown back and forth with New England doing what they do, which is edging out the Steelers in a good one, and holding serve at a home game in September.
Yanni’s Pick – Steelers +6 (Patriots 29, Steelers 24)
JJ’s Pick – Steelers +6 (Patriots 27, Steelers 24)
vs. 
HOUSTON TEXANS (0-0) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (0-0)
Monday – September 9th – 7:10pm
Spread: New Orleans -7
Over/Under: 53
Public Money Percentage: 51% New Orleans
The Breakdown:
New Orleans opens with a Monday night in their quest to avoid a 3rd year in a row of a brutal Super Bowl prohibiting loss. The Saints welcome the Houston Texans who just a little over a week before the season made some blockbuster moves placing Lamar Miller on IR, unloading defensive end Jadeveon Clowney but bringing in running back Carlos Hyde and more importantly offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil. It’s clear the Texans feel like they can win now with the departure of Andrew Luck as the price of two first roung picks to get Tunsil was incredibly steep. That being said, having an anchor to protect your franchise quarterback is pretty priceless.
This game has a high over/under total at 53 and there’s a very good reason for that. While both defenses were improved a year ago and nothing to slouch at, this game has the makings of an offensive shootout. If I’m the Texans I’m worried about stopping the Saints offense. It’s fair to say that any team playing them should be worried about that. The Texans really have some tough matchups in the secondary and with the Saints new weapon Jared Cook at tight end. They’ll need some monster pressure from JJ Watt and company if they’re going to be able to stay in this one. Alvin Kamara should have some success out of the backfield as well against the Texans who played as much man-to-man coverage as any team in the league in 2018. Houston should have some success as well offensively as this is the type of game where Deshaun Watson really seems to perform at his best. Duke Johnson will probably get the lion-share of playing time at running back this week as Hyde is likely not up to speed yet and that could be a good thing for the Texans. His ability to create his own mismatches out of the backfield will be key to keep the changes moving and keeping defenses honest against Deandre Hopkins. Ultimately, New Orleans should prove too tough in the dome and we’d expect them to win the scoreboard battle at the end. It’s likely the Saints could cover the 7, but you’ll note we opted to tease them in our week 1 plays as we feel a lot better about only needing the to get the win versus covering the touchdown.
Yanni’s Pick – Saints -7 (Saints 34, Texans 26)
JJ’s Pick – Saints -7 (Saints 34, Texans 24)
vs. 
DENVER BRONCOS (0-0) at OAKLAND RAIDERS (0-0)
Monday – September 9th – 7:10pm
Spread: Oakland Raiders -1
Over/Under: 43
Public Money Percentage: 56% Oakland
The Breakdown:
t seems like we’ve mentioned drama filled offseasons earlier in this weeks games, and the Raiders can absolutely fall into that category. As owners of their new prize at WR, Antonio Brown is clearly the most dramatic guy in the league at this point in time. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have a plan it seems, we’re just waiting to figure out exactly what that plan is. The Broncos are kind of a ho-hum team that has some stars and a temptingly high ceiling. Are they complete enough to battle with the Chiefs and Chargers, or in this case the Raiders?
The Black Hole will be electric as always as the Raiders finish up their time in Oakland before moving to glitz and glamour Las Vegas. As much as we love Vegas, it stings to see such a great fan base losing a team it’s supports with so much passion and fun. The Raiders will need that noise and atmosphere to take down their longtime rival and start the season on a positive note. It’s really anyone’s guess at how the Raiders will play in this season opener so if you’re betting this one, best of luck. Antonio Brown will most likely draw Chris Harris, Jr. and the Broncos are hopeful that can shut down the Raider’s biggest playmaker and threat. Brown is a true difference-maker as we know and whether or not he can have a big game could be the key to a Raider win or loss. If I’m the Raiders, I’m trying to pound the ball on the ground early and often, testing what could be a soft interior of the Denver defense. Not only could they find success there, it’s also their best hope at not putting quarterback Derek Carr is some really bad spots. Remember when the strength of the Raiders was their offensive line? That’s not really the case anymore and when you’re going against Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, you need some protection to be successful. If Oakland struggles at all running the ball, it could be a really long night for Carr. On the other side this Raiders defense is a patchwork of young and older players pieced together. It’s tough to know how well or not-well they may play early on. Denver should be able to move the ball on the ground and if they can get the oft-underrated Emmanuel Sanders going they should be able to pull this one out, even in a tough road matchup.
