PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
5-3

SEASON RESULTS:
63-56

Week 15 Recap:

A fast start in the early window of week 15 yielded a 4-1 mark, before going 1-2 late settled things out a 5-3 for the slate. The force was strong in the 1:00pm games as we squeaked over a cover with Myles Gaskin by a single yard, despite the fact he lost a lot of snaps with the unexpected success of running back Duke Johnson. Our favorite bet as stated cleared easily as D’onta Foreman went for over 100 yards against the still struggling Steelers rush defense. A.J. Green topped his receiving yardage, and Josh Allen only had one carry, which helped him stay below his rushing total. Our early loss was with Chase Claypool who was both injured and benched at different times of the game, and never got anything going for the Steelers. In the late games, George Kittle was his usual dominant self getting over his seemingly low reception mark of just 5.5 catches. We lost with Davante Adams though as the Ravens doubled him up on nearly every snap, forcing the Packers to look in other directions. Despite the Saints shutout victory over the Buccaneers, Alvin Kamara was a virtual non-factor, ending our week with that loss. With just three weeks left in the regular season, we’re ready to improve our season tally.

Week 16 Preview:

We got an early start with some player props on Christmas day with overs on Jonathan Taylor’s combined yards and A.J. Green’s receiving yards. Unfortunately, we struck out with both of those. The sportsbooks have been really slow this weekend getting player props on the board, most likely due to the shifting Covid landscape across the league. We’re going to add just five official plays here, although keep an eye on our Twitter as we might add something late. We’re looking to keep some trends alive and buck a couple of others with some new players and a pair of repeaters. Hopefully Santa brings us some late gifts with a bevy of winners on Sunday.

Our Picks:

Ja’Marr Chase – Over 60.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Rookie wideout Ja’Marr Chase started the season not only as well as any first year player, but as any receiver in the league not named Cooper Kupp. He’s hit a bit of a rookie wall since then topping 50 yards receiving only twice as teams have paid a lot closer attention to him. If Chase is going to find his stride again, this seems like a great week for that to happen as he’ll be facing a Ravens defense that has the most depleted secondary in football. The Ravens will be without an incredible 4 of their top 5 cornerbacks and a pair of safeties, making them very vulnerable to quick receivers. We know Baltimore can still stop the running game so Joe Burrow is going to have to put the offense on his shoulders as he did in their first meeting. In that contest, Chase racked up a ridiculous 201 yards receiving on 8 receptions, and that was with Marlon Humphrey and DeShon Elliott in the lineup. Look for Cincinnati to really work to get Chase involved in the offense, as he should get a fair amount of looks and has the ability to hit a big play over the top. The stats may not speak to this one getting over, but the matchup and game plan should help it happen.

Drew Lock – Over 205.5 Yards Passing (-115)

Before you roll your eyes or laugh at suggesting that Broncos quarterback Drew Lock can get you paid, take a moment to look a little deeper at this game. For starters, if you look back to Drew Lock starting a season ago, he averaged 226 yards passing per game, giving a 20 yard cushion over this total. And that was minus his top weapons for a good portion of the year. In this game he’ll have all of his weapons in the receiving game, and both running backs capable of catching passes. What makes this even more appealing for Lock is he’ll be facing a Raiders secondary that will be missing four of their top seven players. The young QB should be aggressive, knowing this is his opportunity to basically audition for his NFL future, so he should take some shots down the field when he has time to throw. At such a low number, we’re going to see what he’s got and bank on him getting over the 206.5.

Cooper Kupp – Over 105.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Let’s start off by saying that wagering a prop over set at 105.5 seems to go against everything history and statistics has taught us over the years. Expecting a player, even a great one, to achieve that mark is asking a lot when you begin factoring in all of the variables of schemes, injuries, etc. In reality, even though we don’t love this concept, what we’re actually doing here is playing the trends. During his remarkable run, Kupp has topped 115 yards receiving in 7 of the last 9 games, with his worst performance being a 95 yard effort against the Tennessee Titans. The thought here is pretty elementary: Let’s keep playing this wager until it stops cashing. We’ll hope that doesn’t happen this week, or anytime soon for that matter.

Devin Singletary – Over 13.5 Yards Receiving (115)

The Buffalo Bills are not one of the better running teams in the league, with the exception of quarterback Josh Allen. The team relies a lot on the short passing game in-lieu of a pure rushing attack, which is where Devin Singletary will come in. After a clunky timeshare for the first 11 weeks of the season, Singletary has become the clear running back one in the Bills offense garnering nearly 75% of the snaps in the backfield. In this game against the Patriots, the Bills will be missing three starting offensive linemen, meaning Josh Allen will be under a lot of durress as he was in their first meeting. Buffalo will also be without starting wide receivers Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis, thinning out the options for Allen to throw to. With the heavy pressure and adjusted game script, look for a fair share of checkdowns to Singletary, and possibly a designed screen or two. At just 13.5 yards, we’re willing to take a crack with Singletary.

James Robinson – Over 72.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Wagering on anything in a game featuring the Jaguars and Jets may seem a little crazy, and maybe it is? This particular bet is really just a fade on the New York Jets defense, a unit that has been absolutely torched over the last five weeks, and really most of the season. The Jets are one of three teams that have given up 2000 yards rushing so far this season. (technically just under at 1,987). They’ll face James Robinson who is clear for take off since the firing of head coach Urban Meyer, who didn’t care for Robinson for whatever reason. The Jags will also be without Carlos Hyde and Laviksa Shenault, furthering the need to lean on Robinson. The game script should remain solid for the Jaguars as well as the Jets most likely won’t be scoring a ton on their end either. That should keep the running game relevant for all four quarters, allowing Robinson to thrive.

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