Previous Week Plays – 3-3
Season Record – 27-24
Week 12 Recap:
We’ve been stuck in neutral the last few weeks as week twelve yielded an even 3-3 mark, meaning we swallowed a little more juice. We felt good at 3-2 heading into the Ravens primetime showdown with the Browns, however Baltimore was unable to muster any consistent offense in a performance that included four interceptions from Lamar Jackson. As a result their team total didn’t get there, and we finished with the .500 mark. The weekend start positively as the Saints under team total was never threatened, but abruptly turned south with the Steelers and Bengals game. Our read was way off there as we anticipated a hard fought divisional game, that ended up being a Bengals rout of rival Pittsburgh. For the second week in a row Aaron Rodgers lit up a scoreboard, putting a temporary pause on our excitement of betting Packer unders. We did easily score the over with the Vikings and 49ers, and the Packers outright win helped us cover our teaser in tandem with the red-hot Patriots. A fun week of football, just not the profit we’re looking for as we head down the stretch run of the season.
Week 13 Picks:
CHALK. If that word scares you, of if you strictly avoid square bets, then you definitely won’t be tailing the BetCrushers in week thirteen. Yes, it is absolutely true that the sportsbooks slaughtered the betting public during the month of November as underdogs rolled. We’re going with our normal strategy regardless of whether or not it’s following the public as there are some mismatches this week. We always say, the public has to win sometimes, right? This should be a nice bounce-back week as we’re at the point in the season where teams that are fading tend to pack it in, and contenders start to step it up. We kicked things off taking the side with the Dallas Cowboys on the Thursday Night Football game, then playing a couple of team total overs before finishing up with another road favorite and a teaser. Hopefully you’re following us on Twitter and were able to join in on the less than inspiring, but still covering Dallas bet. Let’s see if we can join in with the public and cash the rest of our tickets this weekend.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
vs. 
Indianapolis Colts (6-6) vs. Houston Texans (2-9)
Sunday December 5th
1:00pm
CBS
NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
Indianapolis Colts -9 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
The Indianapolis Colts travel to Houston for a divisional matchup against the Houston Texans in a game that isn’t expected to be very close. The Colts have proven they can play against the toughest competition in the league, and they’ve also shown they can play down to the level of their opponent as well. Could this be a trap game for Indy against a feisty Texans crew, or will this one be a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball?
When you think about the passing game of the Indianapolis Colts it doesn’t jump out at you as overly dynamic. The Colts have actually been one of the most productive offenses in the league, and of course most of that starts with running back Jonathan Taylor. That’s got to be a little scary for Texans defensive coordinator Lovie Smith, who with a lack of talent has not been great at stopping the run this season. Colts offensive coordinator Frank Reich showed a week ago that he’ll gameplan to attack his opponent’s weaknesses, basically not even attempting to run against the tough Buccaneers rush defense. That plan should flip this week, as you can figure on Indy attempting to play “bully-ball” and run Taylor early and often. When the Texans have stayed competitive on the defensive side of the ball they’ve slowed down the run, and created turnovers. Both could be tall tasks with the way that the Colts are playing right now. It’s not as though quarterback Carson Wentz can’t be forced into making some big mistakes, but that has mostly come against really aggressive defenses. It’s always possible that Wentz and the Colts can get some big plays in the passing game, but you can simplify this game with Taylor and how close this game is early on.
After giving the Texans a spark in his return from injury, quarterback Tyrod Taylor and the Houston offense has stalled a bit in recent weeks. The team moved on from the short experiments with Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay giving David Johnson and Rex Burkhead a head of steam in the backfield. That hasn’t really helped much as the running game for Houston is still largely running on fumes and will continue to find room tough to come by. Battling through some nagging injuries, DeForest Buckner will lead that unit that had been playing better of late before faltering a bit against the Buccaneers and Leonard Fournette. The bigger obstacle for Houston will really be trying to make some splash plays in the passing game. Early in the season speedster Brandin Cooks was making some things happen down the field, but the deep passing game as completely dried up since Taylor returned. While the Colts defense is good overall, they have given up their share of big plays. Houston has to find a way to make some of these as they simply won’t be able to move the ball methodically against the Colts. Throw in the fact that the Colts zone heavy scheme and athletic linebackers generally do not allow for a lot of quarterback rushing yards, something Taylor would like to exploit. Can the Texans find a way to hit some big plays?
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 6 games for the Colts
– The total has gone over in 7 of the last 8 games for the Colts on the road
– The Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing in Houston
– The Texans are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games
– The Texans are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 home games
Common sense would lead you to believe that the Colts will take the Texans behind the woodshed in a game that is a mismatch in all phases. While it’s certainly possible, it’s tough to justify laying those kind of points on the road in an NFL game. The Colts have been an over machine, leading NFL clubs in that category through the first twelve weeks of the season. The over should be in play again here, however it’s difficult to trust the Houston Texans with what we’ve seen from them on offense in recent weeks. You can still grab the Indy team total at 26.5, which against this Texans defense should be possible, even on the road. After all, if Jonathan Taylor and this team can throw a 40 burger up on the Bills on the road, there is little reason to believe they can’t find their way to 27 points here.
BetCrushers Take: Indianapolis Colts – Team Total Over 26.5
Colts 29, Texans 19
New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins
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New York Giants (4-7) vs. Miami Dolphins (5-7)
Sunday December 5th
1:00pm
FOX
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Miami Dolphins -4.5 (-115)
Over/Under 40.5 (-110)
A couple of teams that are probably better than their records show, face off when the New York Giants take on the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins are one of the hottest teams in the league as winners of four straight, and will look to keep young Tua Tagovailoa going against a stingy Giant defense. While neither team is currently sitting in a wild card spot, the winner of this game will put themselves in a much better position to keep the dream alive.
The New York Giants have really not been able to put all of the pieces of their offense together all season, and it doesn’t look as though they’ll be able to do that against the Dolphins either. Quarterback Daniel Jones is banged up but looks like he’ll be fine to get the start, however his receiving corp doesn’t appear like it will be full strength yet again. The good news for the Giants is running back Saquon Barkley has managed to get some good work in over the past two weeks and has shown flashes of what previously kicked off his career as a star. This game is an interesting matchup mainly because the Dolphins defense is suddenly playing so well. After a slow start to the season, Miami has been using their talented cornerbacks to lock up receivers, and the development of their young pass rushers has wreaked havoc on opposing offenses. With the Giants likely down at least one of their top wideouts, expect some man-to-man coverage from the Dolphins with an emphasis on stopping Barkley and expecting to win their individual matchups. This seems to be a common theme when we break down the Giants offense, but Daniel Jones needs to take care of the football. During their recent winning streak Miami has been opportunistic and made the plays when they’ve been there.
Just as the Miami defense has started to play well, their offense has gotten a little bit of swagger going too. For everyone who wanted to bury Tua Tagovailoa, it may be just a little bit premature as he’s played really good football since returning from his early season rib injury. Tua will need to keep his strong play going as he’ll be facing a defense that’s actually been quietly performing well in recent weeks. The Giants have been particularly strong against the pass as their veteran secondary is rangy and doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. The Dolphins will want to exploit them on the ground where they’re not as daunting, however Miami has not been able to establish a running game all season. Myles Gaskin emerged as the lead back and has carried a full workload, but the overall productivity really hasn’t been there. The team was looking to incorporate newly acquired Phillip Lindsay into the mix, but it appears he won’t be healthy enough to get back on the field this Sunday. Much like with Jones for the Giants, Tua needs to take care of the football, and he may need to use his legs a bit to move the sticks against this defense. Having Davante Parker back to line up across from Jaylen Waddle should help Miami’s offense in this game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Dolphins are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 6 games for the Dolphins vs NFC opponents
The spread seems on the spot for this game so it’s kind of tough to try to find an edge or an argument for either team. With as well as the Dolphins have been playing, laying the points at home seems like the move, but this could easily be a field goal football game. Despite the fact that the New York Giants have by and large played solid defense for most of the season, we’re going with another team total here against them. The Dolphins have been routinely putting up 23+ points with Tua playing better football and challenging throws down field a bit. Even if the Dolphins aren’t great on offense on Sunday, they can still trip and stumble their way to getting over the point total. We’ve seen enough and the numbers tell us to back the Miami offense.
BetCrushers Take: Miami Dolphins – Team Total Over 22.5
Dolphins 24, Giants 20
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
vs. 
Baltimore Ravens (8-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5-1)
Sunday December 5th
4:25pm
CBS
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Baltimore Ravens -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under 44 (-110)
The Ravens and Steelers square off after facing divisional opponents a week ago, with Baltimore coming off a close win, and Pittsburgh a crushing blowout loss. Neither Lamar Jackson nor Ben Roethlisberger played well, and the latter enters the game banged up and ailing. A Ravens win could be a knockout blow to their rivals from Pittsburgh, while a Steelers win would further muddy the competitive AFC North division.
It’s not very often that a quarterback tosses 4 interceptions in a game and is still able to come away with the win. That can speak to both the diversity of Lamar Jackson’s game and some nice coaching and defense. Jackson will try to rebound against the Steelers who are in desperate need of a win, and a better performance after the beating they took against the Bengals. If Pittsburgh is going to make a stand they’ll have to do so with a depleted defense yet again. Top edge rusher T.J. Watt is back out of the lineup after a brief return and linebacker Robert Spillane was recently added to the COVID-19 list. Being thin in your front seven is not a position you want to be in when you’re attempting to contain Lamar Jackson and the Ravens running game. The Steelers have actually been gashed over the past month repeatedly on the ground, and you know Baltimore will want to take their shot at keeping that trend alive. The one thing Mike Tomlin and the Steelers do have is plenty of familiarity with facing John Harbaugh and this Ravens offense with Jackson. Although for a team that only has 5 interceptions all season, can they find a way to confuse Lamar and company behind the homefield advantage?
With the mentioned deficiencies on the Pittsburgh defensive side, it’s going to be up to Ben Roethlisberger and the offense to outduel the Ravens in a shootout. The Ravens are going to do what the Ravens do, which is look to bottle up the running game of Pittsburgh to make them one dimensional. Najee Harris has had a nice rookie campaign, and he’ll need to make some things happen, at least enough to keep Baltimore honest. With Calais Campbell expected to return, the Ravens clearly have an advantage against the slumping Pittsburgh offensive line. Roethlisberger and his receivers will need to be patient and mix in the short passing game while hitting on any potential big plays that might come around. There’s been a lot of noise around the Steeler organization regarding the lack of creativity with the play calling of coordinator Matt Canada, and this game is one where he needs to make something happen. The Ravens are also a little thin in their secondary, so if Pitt can find a way to get Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool singled up it’s not impossible that they could hit something big. They also have a favorable matchup with rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth not only in the red zone, but also over the middle of the field.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Ravens are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing at Pittsburgh
– The Ravens are 9-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs AFC North opponents
– The Steelers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games
– The Steelers are 1-5 straight up in their last 6 games vs AFC North opponents
Trends can often be misleading or skewed to fit a narrative in sports and sports betting. When you check these out above it’s pretty clear that one team has really feasted within the division and the other has really struggled. That’s not the main reason we’re laying points with a road team here, but it certainly adds fuel to the fire. The real reason we’re going with the Ravens is this Steelers defense is all of a sudden one of the worst in the league. You’ve got to assume that Lamar Jackson isn’t going to repeat his 4 turnover performance, and the Ravens should impose their will on this depleted Steelers defense. Hopefully you were able to get the Ravens when they were at a safe -3, but we’re still posting this bet with the current line which sits at -4.5. This could be the nail in the coffin for the Pittsburgh Steelers season, and possibly the last hurrah for Big Ben.
BetCrushers Take: Baltimore Ravens -4.5
Ravens 26, Steelers 18
Teaser Bet
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears
vs. 
and 
vs. 
New England Patriots (8-4) vs. Buffalo Bills (7-4)
Monday December 6th
8:15pm
ESPN
Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals (9-2) vs. Chicago Bears (7-4)
Sunday December 5th
1:00pm
FOX
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Arizona Cardinals -8 (-115)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills will bookend the NFL week with a Monday Night Football showdown with major playoff implications. The Arizona Cardinals are lined up to face the Chicago Bears in what likely will not be as impactful in the final standings. The Patriots enter the game a 2.5 point underdogs and the Cardinals have been as high as 8.5 point favorites.
Taking a quick look at the Patriots and Bills game, this one has the makings of a classic divisional showdown. Both defenses are playing really good football, and each quarterback has full command over their respective offense. While the Bills may have a little more star power and the homefield advantage, the Patriots have the advantage where it may matter even more, in the trenches. Since their offensive line has been healthy and intact, they have run the ball as well as any team in the league behind Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. Much of the reason Mac Jones has been so productive, is the fact that he’s regularly operating with a clean pocket, something that is obviously huge for a rookie quarterback. Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick are going to take the same approach that the Titans and Colts did against the Bills, which is line up and try to run the ball down their throat. How well they can accomplish that will be the single biggest factor in the outcome of this game. The Bills are happy to have DT Star Lotulelei back in the lineup to help stuff that running game, but will it be enough? The other thing to watch is how defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier alters his defensive philosophy in his first game without his All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White? For Buffalo on offense, they need to continue to be patient, and stay committed to running the football. New England is one of the few teams that can match talent in their secondary with the talent of the Bills receivers. Where they’ve struggled at times is also stopping the run. The combination of Matt Breida and Devin Singletary need to run hard and help move the chains as this game can’t just be a drop back and pass contest for Josh Allen and his receivers.
The game between the Cardinals and Bears is really a tale of two complete opposites. The Cardinals are starting to get healthy and looking to gear up for a postseason run, while the Bears are more in the shut it down and get to the offseason mindset. Matt Nagy is a lame duck coach and his players know that, and it certainly doesn’t seem as though they cared much for him to begin with. We drew the correlation between the Cubs selling off their talent at the trade deadline last season, making them an automatic betting fade each night in baseball. No matter who the Bears are playing, it’s worth giving them a look to fade, and especially when they’re going to be taking on a quality opponent. It appears Justin Fields may get the starting gig back, and that’s not a good thing for Bears backers. Nagy might try to go with Dalton in an effort to be more competitive and try to save some face. Assuming Fields does get the nod, a lot will be asked of him to keep pace with the Cardinals offense that has mostly flourished, even without their star QB, WR and some other pieces. The Bears defense will be without at least two of their top players and possibly more, which means Arizona should be able to get what they want both running and throwing the football. Unless the Bears can get up early, this one could get ugly if the home team starts making some business decisions and shuts things down a bit.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Patriots are 5-0 straight up in their last 5 road games
– The Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs the Bills
– The Bills are 1-9 straight up in their last 10 home games vs the Patriots
– The Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games
– The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs the Bears
– The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
Most people believe the Bills and Patriots game is a coin flip and you can count us in that group. Anything is possible in the NFL, and with a strong offense like the Bills, a blowout is certainly possible. It’s highly unlikely though as we’re banking on this being a one score down to the wire type game for whoever comes away with the win. Being able to tease the red-hot Patriots up to getting +8.5 points seems like an automatic play that just needs to be placed. In looking at the road teams that are teaser options, we settled on the Cardinals not only because they’re the best team of those road favorites, but they’re also playing a team we think is going to play dead. After a brief lull, our teaser bets have been hot the last two weeks, let’s see if we can get the turkey and make it three in a row.
