PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
8-3

SEASON RESULTS:
35-35

Week 9 Recap:

In our preview last week we mentioned that our heavy card of wagers wasn’t chasing to get back to a winning record, but more based on some plays we really liked. It proved fruitful, as we ended the week with an 8-3 mark on our props, which gets us back to the .500 mark on the season. Very disappointing from where we wanted and expected to be at the midway point in the schedule, but it definitely feels better to have an even mark than be sitting below that threshold. With an average juice of -115, we’ve got some work to do to make this year profitable. Fortunately we’ve got some time to make it happen, and even more exciting is we finally had the pulse of some players that came to fruition. Here’s a quick review of what cashed and what failed:

Tyrod Taylor – Over rushing yards – W
Damien Harris – Under rushing yards – W
Amari Cooper – Over receiving yards – L
Dalton Schultz – Over receiving yards – W
Emmanuel Sanders – Over receiving yards – W
Jalen Hurts – Over rushing yards – W
Austin Ekeler – Over rushing and receiving yards combined – L
Mark Ingram II – Over rushing yards – W
Jaylen Waddle – Over receiving yards – W
Nick Chubb – Over rushing yards – W
Justin Fields – Under passing yards – L

Week 10 Preview:

Good sports bettors are able to remove emotions and superstitions when handicapping their plays. So let’s just go ahead and say that we decided on 11 bets again after this week with last week being successful in that approach. We’ve got a stack pairing of quarterbacks and receivers in two separate games, and went back to the well with a repeat prop from a week ago. There are some familiar faces as usual on our list, but a couple of newbies that we haven’t wagered on in the past. Only one under that we’re fading, and a couple of same game matchups. As always a diverse approach, so feel free to tail away with any you like, or fade if you prefer. Good luck with whatever you play!

Our Picks:

Jalen Hurts – Over 45.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Trends can be helpful in sports betting and Jalen Hurts has one of the top hitting player props since he’s been in the league. His rushing yardage total over has hit at near 68%, which means if you bet it every week you’re in a very green state of mind. We’re going back to the well again here after winning with him in week number nine. He actually has a lower total, which is appealing in itself. Although he’s facing a really tough defense, it shouldn’t have a huge impact on this particular prop. It’s likely that Hurts will have some challenges throwing on the talented Denver secondary, which means he will want to tuck and run. With a depleted linebacking corp for the Broncos, he should be able to bust a couple of big runs at some point during the game. This wager is pretty simple, we’re going to keep playing it until it stops winning.

J.D. McKissic – Under 18.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Things can always get a little scary when you’re taking an under on a really low total, something we’re doing with this wager. Washington running back J.D. McKissic has the speed and elusiveness to break a big play at any time, so he could get over this with one carry. Here’s why we’re betting against that happening: First, McKissick shouldn’t see a ton of snap count barring injury to starter Antonio Gibson. McKissick is brought in as the pass catching back, and in a game where Washington figures to be playing from behind he may catch some passes. As far as rushing yards go, he just doesn’t get a lot of carries. Facing the always stout Tampa Bay defense, even if he gets a few carries, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to really do enough to accumulate substantial yardage on the ground. We’re hoping the ball is only in his hands on pass catches and he doesn’t do any damage with draws or runs on Sunday.

Dalvin Cook – Over 90.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The Minnesota Vikings continue to play close and exciting football games behind a strong offense and timely plays. Running back Dalvin Cook has been solid, if not as spectacular as we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. We’re looking for that breakout monster game from Cook in this matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers on the road. The Chargers are perhaps the softest team in the league against the run, which is something you know head coach Mike Zimmer wants to exploit. Having the luxury of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen on the outside forces teams to not fully stack the box against Cook and the running game. If Dalvin can’t hit the century mark against the Chargers, then something is really wrong. A huge day for Cook and an exciting game in LA should both be in order.

Tom Brady – Over 2.5 Touchdown Passes (+125)

In a career full of ridiculous stats, it’s pretty wild to see that Tom Brady is putting up some of his best numbers at this age. Brady has tossed at least 3 touchdowns in all but two games this season, including multiple 4+ games. The fact that you can get plus money to wager on him getting three against the awful Washington Football Team pass defense almost seems like a Christmas gift in November. Yes, it’s fair to note that he’ll be without some of his favorite weapons, but when has that ever mattered for Brady? He may not toss 3 or more TDs every week, yet this doesn’t seem like a week where it will not happen.

Mike Evans – Over 63.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

There is a theme with several of the prop players we have selected to go over their totals this week, and it’s good players having to pick up the slack for thinned out rosters. Mike Evans fits this perfectly, as he’ll be Tom Brady’s go to guy with Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski out again, and Chris Godwin hobbled, and possibly not playing. The good news for Tampa is that Washington has not been able to stop anyone throwing the football this season, and Tom Brady knows that. Evans is the type of receiver who feasts on weak competition, and it seems nearly impossible that he and Brady won’t connect on some big passes in this game. This has all the makings of a 100 yard day for Evans so you can bet this one fairly confidently.

Diontae Johnson – Over 5.5 Receptions (-125)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have the proverbial “trap” game against the Detroit Lions in Heinz Field on Sunday. They’ll also be playing without wideout Chase Claypool, who will miss the contest due to injury. Everyone knows that there will be a healthy dose of Najee Harris for Pittsburgh in this game, but the Steelers have to throw at least a little bit. That’s where Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target comes into play. Diontae Johnson leads the team in targets and with Claypool out, he should see a bunch of them against Detroit. The Lions aren’t exactly great at defending the pass anyhow, so it’s fair to assume Johnson will be able to get open both short and long. This one is slightly juiced, and we’re ok with that as the value of a winning prop is very strong with this bet.

Mo Alie-Cox – Over 16.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

You don’t always need to find the big name players when you’re looking for quality prop bets. Enter Mo Alie-Cox, the Colts tight end in their game with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Alie-Cox rarely puts up big numbers, which is why his yardage total sits at a meager 16.5 yards. The trends of this season show us that Alie-Cox has exceeded that in all but two of their games in 2021. Add in the fact that he has had some of his top performances against the Jaguars during his career and he should be in line to get over that threshold. The Jaguars defense has been pretty strong against the run this season, so we’re looking for Carson Wentz to be throwing it around in the comfort of the dome. He may not give much, but we don’t need him to give a ton. How does 2 catches for 19 yards sound? Works for us.

Josh Allen – Over 24.5 Completions (-115)

The Josh Allen MVP hype took a hit in a dismal performance last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Bills signal caller was beaten up behind a porous offensive line as he turned the ball over three times en route to a 9-6 loss. Assuming the Bills offensive line and running game can even mildly improve against the Jets, he should bounce back with a big game. The Jets secondary has been pretty bad all season and will be without Marcus Maye at safety. While we like Allen to hit his yardage total, we actually like playing his completions even better. The Jets are likely to play a deep cover two shell in an effort to push the Bills to run the ball and keep things in front of them. If Allen is patient, he’ll have plenty of room to make short throws over the middle of the field. Allen completed over 30 passes in both games against the Jets last season, and there’s no reason why he can’t do that again.

Stefon Diggs – Over 73.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

When you look at Stefon Diggs numbers this season they’re pretty solid as a whole. Something hasn’t clicked with he and Josh Allen to the level that it did a season ago however, as they’ve missed on some big plays and even some simpler throws. If there is ever an opportunity for a player like Diggs to get right, it would be against the New York Jets and what is looking like a pretty poor secondary. New York with be without it’s best secondary player in Marcus Maye, so the opportunity for big plays and consistent plays will be there for the Bills receivers. Diggs can beat any defensive back, but he absolutely excels at weaker defensive backs in one-on-one coverage. Look for the Bills to try to run a bit early based on their coaching desires, and then see a lot of throws going Diggs way. He may need one deep one to get over the mark, and we’re confident he’ll find a way to do it in this game.

D.K. Metcalf – Over 69.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

We’re expecting a physical and low-scoring game in the return of Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers when the Seahawks and Packers face off on Sunday. The Seahawks offense, and particularly their talented wideouts really felt the pain of not having Russell Wilson available when he was out with his finger injury. No one is more physical at receiver than D.K. Metcalf and Wilson should be looking his way often throughout this game. With Jaire Alexander still on IR at corner, the Packers will need to decide how they want to try to defend Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. An interesting trend this season has shown that Metcalf has really been up and down from week to week. If that trend holds up, he’s in line for another good game against Green Bay. We have him estimated at around 85 yards receiving for this game, so needing only 70 there is some nice value with this selection.

Justin Herbert – Over 293.5 Yards Passing (-115)

After a really hot start to the season things have cooled off just a bit for Justin Herbert. The young QB did play well last week and led the Chargers in a great game last second win against the Eagles. This week he’s got a matchup with the Minnesota Vikings that figures to be one of the higher scoring game of the day. The Vikings are wounded on defense missing Anthony Barr, critical pass rusher Danielle Hunter and possibly Bashaud Breeland on the corner. All of that equals some juicy matchups for Herbert with his vast array of weapons. The Vikings have been able to stay competitive, even in tough games this year so they should keep this one relatively close, allowing Herbert to continue to throw for four quarters. A 300 yard machine to at the beginning of the year, we’re expecting Herbert to cross that plateau once again in week ten.

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