PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
5-4

SEASON RESULTS:
17-18

Week 4 Recap:

Normally a 5-4 week wouldn’t be something we’d celebrate with our weekly prop betting, however after two straight losing weekends, getting on the right side of the win column feels good. Our wins were solid as both the games and the performances seemed to go much as we anticipated. Sam Darnold and the Panthers trailed the Cowboys and needed to throw, propelling him over his attempts total. Zack Moss got some nice work in against the Texans in a rout and also went over. Josh Allen stayed under as we predicted, as the QB wasn’t going to be running in a game like that. Amari Cooper hit a big touchdown to get past his yardage total, and Antonio Brown was a key target for Tom Brady against the Patriots also going over. The losses were a mixture of close misses and some overall whiffs. The most surprising result was Travis Kelce only accumulating 23 yards, immediately after we praised his consistent performances. Kareem Hunt missed his receiving total by just two yards as he was shut out in the 4th quarter, and Jalen Hurts fell just shy of his rushing total. The other large miss was fading Daniel Jones in the Superdome as he made some deep passes and second half adjustments which went way over his posted total. We’ll take the winning weekend and look to ride that small momentum into week number five.

Week 5 Preview:

We’ve got a simplified, or slimmed down menu on tap for week five with just five total plays. This seems to be the first weekend where we don’t have a single wide receiver in play with a prop bet. We do have a couple of receiving props however, they’re just tied into some running backs who are quietly putting together nice seasons. Two quarterbacks make the slate, one we’re expecting a quiet day from, and one we’re hoping for some more explosiveness from. After some really large cards in the first quarter-ish of the season, we’re dialed back and hoping for a small but successful prop weekend.

Our Picks:

Matt Ryan – Under 261.5 Yards Passing (-115)

Our weekly plays article is fading the Atlanta Falcons offense as they take their show overseas to face the New York Jets. We’re doubling down here and booking a Matt Ryan under with his passing yardage, despite the number resting at a soft 261.5 yards. Ryan will be leading an offense minus its top two wide receivers, most notably the talented Calvin Ridley. Ryan has struggled without Julio Jones the last couple of seasons when injured and now departed, and without Ridley it’s hard to see where the catches and yards are going to come from. Even if he can get a big game from rookie Kyle Pitts or some plays from Cordarelle Patterson, it still seems to shade to the under. When you add in the fact that the Jets have been decent defending the pass, and the travel and under tendencies in the international series of games, we’re going to fade Matty Ice here.

Leonard Fournette- Over 23.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

People often forget that Leonard Fournette was the fourth overall pick in the draft just a handful of seasons back. The running back has made the most of his stint with the Buccaneers unseating Ronald Jones as the starting back. Fournette should find some success running the football, but it’s his passing yards that we’re eyeing this weekend against the Miami Dolphins for a few reasons. We knoww Tom Brady historically loves checking down to his backs, and with Giovani Bernard still banged up, Fournette should get a fair amount of targets in this game. The absence of Brady’s trusted target in tight end Rob Gronkowski should help as well. Even though the Bucs’ have no shortage of weapons to throw to at wide receiver, the strength of the Dolphins rest at the cornerback position. Brady won’t force the issue against Xavien Howard and Byron Jones if the windows aren’t open. So far this season, Fournette has not been under 24 yards receiving, so playing the statistics certainly leads to grabbing his over on this one.

Jameis Winston – Over 198.5 Yards Passing (-115)

The Saints offense hasn’t been very explosive in the post Drew Brees era, as quarterback play from Jameis Winston has been a little up and down. It’s fair to point out that Winston isn’t throwing to the most talented weapons in the league, as the team anxiously hopes for a return from wideout Michael Thomas sometime in the future. Winston hadn’t even cracked the 150 yard barrier prior to last week when he was able to go for 226 against the Giants in an overtime contest. We’re predicting another 200+ yard performance when the Saints face off with the Washington Football Team on Sunday. Washington has struggled mightily against the pass and rank 27th in overall pass defense heading into the game. Conversely, they’ve been solid defending the run, so the Saints may look to Alvin Kamara more as a pass weapon in the passing game. If Winston has a green light to start throwing, he should exceed the 200 yard mark despite the absence of strong weapons around him.

Najee Harris – Over 4.5 Receptions (-115)

Najee Harris has found the running lanes a little tighter in his rookie season with the Steelers than he was used to playing at the University of Alabama. The Steelers restructured offensive line has not been great, which has not only impacted the running in Pittsburgh, but also quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben is having a tough start to what looks like will be his final season, as he hasn’t been able to connect consistently with his wide receivers and tight ends. One thing he has done, is check the ball down to running back Najee Harris, who has racked up 25 receptions in the past three games. Against a tough Broncos defense, it’s fair to assume that Harris will be an important factor catching the ball yet again. Our ticket is punched on the over for Najee’s catch total.

Devin Singletary – Over 28.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

All eyes will be on Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen as Sunday Night Football has another exciting matchup where offenses should shine. One of the sneakier prop bets we’ve wagered involves a ridiculously low yardage total of just 28.5 yards for running back Devin Singletary. We’ve been 3-0 this season playing Buffalo Bills running back prop bets, and think this is a great opportunity to get to 4-0. There is no question the QB’s will be slinging it, however both teams know that running the football will help them immensely. Singletary has gotten off to a hot start this season, averaging over 5.5 yards per carry as teams have been dropping in coverage against the Bills. Combine that with the fact the Chiefs have been giving up 5.4 yards per carry on their end and it’s a clear mismatch. Singletary has some breakaway ability for longer runs so he shouldn’t even need that many totes to get over 28.5 yards. In last year’s regular season contest at KC, Singletary had one of his weaker performances and still compiled 32 yards rushing. Although he’ll split some time with Zack Moss, it’s hard to imagine he won’t cross this almost disrespectful line on Sunday night.

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