Previous Week Plays – 3-3
Season Record – 9-6
Week 4 Recap:
A hit and miss weekend with our official plays as we split down the middle with a 3-3 record. We did sprinkle a bit on the Seahawks ML which helped offset the juice making it a true tread water venture. Our public play teaser with Kansas City and Tampa Bay came through, even though the Buccaneers were on thin ice for a good portion of the football game. Our most disappointing loss was in our other teaser, which happened to be our first teaser loss of the season. The Bengals had squeaked by the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football, which meant we simply needed the Saints to hold serve in their first home game of the season against the Giants. After leading in the game, the Saints defense couldn’t contain the New York offense, missing two key receivers, and lost in overtime. Our worst loss of the day was the over in the Vikings and Browns game, as the two teams combined for a mere 21 points and neither ever got their offense really going. Our best win of the day was taking the Green Bay Packers first half spread as they handled a fading Pittsburgh Steelers bunch. The 3-3 finish moved our season mark to a 9-6 tally, and we’ll look to get back to some profit after our last two weekends of .500 even betting.
Week 5 Picks:
From six plays a week ago, to halving that with just three for the upcoming weekend. There are quiet a few interesting games that we looked at, before settling on our selections. Generally speaking, week five is the time when teams start to separate a bit between the top third and bottom third in the league. Our plays start with some action on the first NFL London game of the season between the Jets and Falcons to kick things off. We’ve got a chalky road favorite that we believe has a legit case for a blowout performance, and a teaser that checks all of the boxes.
New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons
vs. 
New York Jets (1-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-3)
Sunday October 10th
9:30am
NFL Network
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – London, England
Atlanta Falcons -3 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
The NFL returns to London as NFL addicts get to go from 10 hours of football to 13 with the 9:30am EST kickoff. As seems to often be the case, the matchup across the pond isn’t the most riveting for the folks in England. The New York Jets secured their first win of the season, and look to make it two in a row as they face off with the equal in the standings 1-3 Atlanta Falcons.
Give the New York Jets some credit, as they’ve fought hard despite playing with a rookie quarterback, and being undermanned as a unit. The good news for the team is their offense has most of it’s core players intact heading into the game, at least at the skill positions. The more important good news is they’re taking on a Falcons team that hasn’t been great defensively. The Jets haven’t run the ball all that well, and it would be great in this game, and for the season if they can consistently move it on the ground. Where the team really needs to win in this game is in the passing attack. The Falcons have given up both intermediate passes and big plays throughout this season, behind a secondary that is flat out not that good. With Jamison Crowder back in the lineup, the team has enough weapons to put around Corey Davis where they should be able to throw a bit. Of course this is predicated on good blocking, which is going to be a little bit of weakness versus weakness in this game. Can Grady Jarrett and Dante Fowler, Jr. get to the rookie quarterback to force mistakes? That’s likely the key to this entire football game, and really for the Jets moving forward.
The Falcons were flying under the radar heading into the season, and it’s becoming apparent why that was the case. The team has not been good on defense, which isn’t anything new. What is a more recent struggle though, is the fact that they are really having trouble offensively. Their offensive line has underachieved, which has hindered Matt Ryan’s ability to get the ball downfield. It’s fair to say that the bigger problem is no longer having Julio Jones on the roster opposite Calvin Ridley. In this game he won’t have either, as Ridley did not make the trip to London due to what the team is terming a “personal issue”. With Russell Gage already out, that leaves the team with Olamide Zaccheaus and Tajae Sharpe as the starting wideouts. The Jets have issues in the secondary as they’re missing safeties Lamarcus Joyner and Marcus Maye, but without the time to throw and capable weapons, can the Falcons even take advantage of that? The Titans were unable to do so a week ago with their backup wideouts. For the Falcons to come away with a win, in addition to better blocking, the team needs two things to happen. First round pick Kyle Pitts need to learn how to dominate in the NFL, especially against a team missing linebackers and safeties. If his stat line reads 4 catches for 40 yards, the Falcons probably aren’t winning this game. He needs to mature quickly and start showing he can win matchups routinely and be that monster at tight end that most people believe he can be. Secondly, the Falcons need the continued hot play of Cordarelle Patterson, who has been one of the really fun players to watch this season. Patterson has lined up all over, and will most likely see some more snaps at wide receiver with the team missing Ridley and Gage. The Jets have gotten solid play out of their front seven, led by the Williams’ tandem and veteran C.J. Mosley, and all three could be game wreckers if they can rattle Ryan in the game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone under in 6 of the last 8 Jets games
– The Jets are 1-3 ATS this season
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 Falcons games vs an AFC opponent
– The Falcons are 1-8 straight up in their last 9 games
The spread seems about right in this one, although if we had to select a side we’d lean towards taking the points with the Jets. We can’t make that play though as it’s hard to picture this team winning two games in a row, or being competitive again after their big win against Tennessee. As has been the case with several of the games in London, we’re expecting some low scoring. The under is appealing, but we’re actually taking a slightly different angle with the Falcons team total set at 24.5. This isn’t the Falcons offense of the mid 2015 era that could fill a box score. This also isn’t the worst defense in the league they’re playing, despite what perception might be. With Ryan void of weapons, traveling overseas, we’re looking at the defenses to lead the charge and the Jets to hold the Falcons under 20.
BetCrushers Take: Atlanta Falcons – Team Total Under 24.5
Jets 20, Falcons 19
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
vs. 
Tennessee Titans (2-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)
Sunday October 10th
1:00pm
CBS
TIAA Bank Field – Jacksonville, FL
Tennessee Titans -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
The AFC South has staked the early claim as the weakest division in the NFL four weeks into the season. Division rivals square up when the Tennessee Titans travel to Jacksonville to take on the winless Jaguars. It’s been a rocky start for the Titans, as they’ve battled injuries ,and lost a game they were heavy favorites to win against the New York Jets. Things have been even worse in Jacksonville as the team blew a game in primetime, and then saw their coach embarrassed in a viral video in public. The Titans have a chance to jump out to an early lead in the division with a win in this game, as the Jags simply want to find their way into the win column.
Maybe the Tennessee Titans aren’t that great at football, or maybe they know they can probably half sleepwalk to division title in the AFC South? Whatever the case is, they hope to have a better showing against the Jaguars in a matchup they’ve owned over the past few seasons. The Titans offensive depth chart is a cliché hospital ward, with injuries all over the place. Fortunately for them, it looks like most of their group should be good to go, including key offensive linemen Taylor Lewan and Ben Jones. That is great news for running back Derrick Henry, who is up to his old tricks, setting the bar for rushing across the league. Henry has feasted more against the Jaguars than any other team in the league, and he should find his usual success on Sunday. It is important to point out that the Jags have actually been pretty solid against the run this season, however in the case of Derrick Henry it shouldn’t matter. If Jacksonville can at least slow down Henry they’ll have a legitimate shot to win the game. Ryan Tannehill has not looked like the upper tier quarterback this year that he has in the previous two seasons. The Jags have been poor against the pass, which means Tannehill is going to need to be a factor in this game to some extent. A.J. Brown looks as though he’ll be back in the lineup after missing last week, which should instantly vault this offense forward. Julio Jones looks a lot more questionable, so it may come down to a game-time decision on whether or not he can go.
For as big of a mess as the Jaguars organization is as a whole, Trevor Lawrence still looks like he can be an elite franchise quarterback in this league. Whether or not we’ll ever get to see it based upon what’s happening around him still remains to be seen. Lawrence takes aim at a defense that has been statistically even worse than his own. The Titans continue to be unable to generate consistent pressure, which is exposing a secondary that often looks out of position, and doesn’t win individual matchups. Janoris Jenkins looks like his best days are long behind him, and Kristian Fulton hasn’t quite figured out the game at this level yet. Kevin Byard remains the glye in the secondary, however he ends up being more of a janitor, cleaning up messes cause by the poor play of the defense. Jacksonville suffered an unfortunate injury to D.J. Chark in their game with the Bengals, but should still be able to threaten Tennessee with Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones. The quiet addition of Dan Arnold also gives Lawrence a nice secure option at the tight end position, something that could factor in against the Titans. Part of the reason the Jags got off to a nice start against the Bengals is their offensive line really stepped up and played well. James Robinson continues to be an underrated back who runs hard and just seems to always make nice plays. How well the Jaguars can establish the run will be something worth keeping an eye on during this one.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games versus the Jaguars
– Derrick Henry averages 112 yards per game versus the Jaguars
– The Jaguars are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games
In just examining the X’s and the O’s of this football game, logic would tell you that taking the 4.5 with the Jaguars at home is pick to make. Home dogs of 4.5 in a division game really seems like a no-brainer. We’re going rogue in this game, and doing something we rarely do, which is trusting what we see and believe. The Jaguars are basically coming off a loss in what was essentially their Super Bowl, playing in primetime in front of America. When you couple that in with the distraction of head coach Urban Meyer, and a team that it sounds like is already quitting on him, things could get bad. While we’re add it, let’s throw in the fact that local product Derrick Henry has run over this team in nearly every matchup, and the Titans could grind this one away in the second half. If you’re wary of placing this wager, just remember, the public wins a fair amount too.
BetCrushers Take: Tennessee Titans -4.5
Titans 28, Jaguars, 20
Teaser Bet
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens
vs. 
and 
vs. 
New York Giants (1-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-1)
Sunday October 10th
4:25pm
FOX
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Dallas Cowboys -7 (-110)
Over/Under 52 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts (1-3) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
Monday October 11th
8:15pm
ESPN
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Baltimore Ravens -7 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Cowboys -1 and Ravens -1
After suffering our first teaser loss of the season last week, we’re reloaded with a pair of teams that are flying high. The Dallas Cowboys play host to the rival New York Giants on Sunday afternoon, and the Baltimore Ravens have a Monday Night Football contest with the Indianapolis Colts. The two underdogs are looking for repeat strong performances from their much maligned quarterbacks, while the favorites are riding the strong play of their talented signal callers. Can the touchdown home favorites come away and win the games at home that they should, or will someone spoil what looks to be a perfect teaser?
After the embarrassment of last season, the NFC East suddenly looks like a competitive division around the league again. Despite a 1-3 record , the New York Giants have actually shown some signs of life behind an improving Daniel Jones. Dating back to the close of last season Jones is actually the only quarterback in the league to grade out over 90+ by PFF (for whatever that’s worth) in each of his team’s games. Perhaps the biggest reason for the improvement is the improved play of his offensive line, which is leaps and bounds ahead of where they were at this time a year ago. Left tackle Andrew Thomas has been a wall on that side of the offensive line, and the right side of the line has collectively played well together as well. Couple that with the return of Saquon Barkley, who seems to be rounding into form following his return from injury, and the Giants have something going on offense. Even without Sterling Shepherd and Darius Slayton a week ago the team was able to move the ball through the air against a solid Saints defense. They’ll get a slightly easier matchup with the Cowboys defense on Sunday, although it certainly won’t be easy. Dallas will have their hands full with Barkley as they’ve had issues slowing down opposing runners in their first four games. They’ve gotten some flashy play from rookie Micah Parsons, and Trevon Diggs has been a force in the secondary, but the Giants may have enough weapons to pick on some of the ancillary players on the Cowboy defense. If New York could get Evan Engram going, they’d really be a tough matchup for a lot of teams, including Dallas this weekend. The other side of the ball is where the Cowboys will need to win this football game, and they should find continued success there. It’s amazing what a good offensive line can do, as having Zack Martin and Tyron Smith back and playing well has made all the difference in the world for this team. (Yes we’ll get to Dak in a minute). It starts with the running game though as Ezekiel Elliott looks like a feature back once again, and having the push from the more explosive Tony Pollard is only helping. With the team establishing the run, something they should be able to do against the Giants, it just makes Dak Prescott all the more dangerous. Prescott looks great no matter who he’s facing, and should be able to make plays even against a solid Giants secondary. The Cowboys are a little thin at wide receiver with Amari Cooper banged up, but it sounds like he’ll be able to give it a go. Much as we mentioned with Evan Engram for the Giants, keep an eye on Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin for Dallas in the passing game.
Next we’ll take a glance at the Monday Night Football game to see if the Colts have enough firepower to keep up with the Ravens? Carson Wentz battled through ankle injuries and finally got some rhythm going last week versus the Dolphins. The team was committed to the run and getting Jonathan Taylor going proved to be a not shockingly really good thing for their offense. It’ll be a little tougher sledding against the Ravens front, that has been good, although not great at stopping the run. The Colts cannot become one dimensional, or it will be a long day for Carson Wentz and the team. Between some injuries on the defensive line and the loss of cornerback Marcus Peters, the Ravens haven’t been overly impressive defending the pass either. With Marlon Humphrey getting healthier and veteran Jimmy Smith back from injury they should have enough to slow down a mediocre trio for the colts. The team has gotten a somewhat surprising boost from Justin Houston, who is proving he still has some gas in the tank. Houston could be a big factor against a Colts offensive line that is still banged up and missing its best player in Quenton Nelson. If we’re not used to seeing the Ravens defense look suspect, it might be even more of a shock that the Colts have really struggled on that side of the ball to start the season. Much like Baltimore, the team hasn’t been great stopping the run or the pass, which is surprising when you look at what they did just a season ago. That’s not good when you have Lamar Jackson coming to town fresh off one of his better passing performances we’ve seen. The Ravens offense is one of the easiest to break down as you generally know what’s coming at you, but stopping it is an entirely different animal. With the Colts defense not playing up to what we’ve expected, it could be a long evening for them as Lamar Jackson will want to put on a show in prime time.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Giants are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games versus the Cowboys
– The Giants are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 games versus the Cowboys
– The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games
As we stated above, this really is about as perfect of a teaser as you can get. You’ve got two home favorites teased under the key number of three, playing with the better quarterbacks. Additionally, the favorites both match up pretty well with their opponents. With their high powered offenses, we’d lean towards laying the points, at least with Baltimore, if not with Dallas. The Cowboys should establish their dominance in the NFC with a win here, and Lamar Jackson will prove too much for the Colts on Monday night. There’s never a guarantee with a teaser bet, but win lose or draw, we love punching this ticket.
