Previous Week Plays – 3-1
Season Record – 5-2
Week 2 Recap:
Whenever you’re heading into the nighttime game with a perfect record and one bet you’re always feeling pretty fantastic. Things can deflate quickly though, or after 60 minutes when you watch the casinos rake in the cash from the public, and in this case the BetCrushers as well. As disappointing as it was to fall with the public on the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night, we’ll take solace in the fact that it was a great ballgame, and that we still finished with positive 3-1 mark for the weekend. Our early bets went according to plan as the Buffalo Bills got off to a fast start, scoring touchdowns on their first two possessions, en route to a pretty easy over point total. The Cleveland Browns had a little bit of a slow start against the Texans, and were thin at the wide receiver position, yet were able to impose their will on Houston and hit their over as well. The two team tease we had was pretty much a walk in the park as both the Broncos and the Cowboys won outright and covered easily, not even needing the extra six points. All in all, things fell into place pretty well despite taking the hit on the Chiefs.
Week 3 Picks:
Week number two helped provide some clarity on several teams and position groupings across the league. We did some adjust some of our ratings heading into week three, as it’s becoming clear which teams are going to really struggle throughout the season. Injuries are now starting to really factor in as we’ve witnessed not only multiple quarterbacks knocked out of lineups, but also star defensive game-wreckers. Week three is proving another tricky spot against the spread as the matchups seem to pair overrated teams versus overrated teams and underrated versus underrated in several circumstances. There are favored teams that in difficult “letdown” spots, yet we just can’t get behind some of these teams just yet. For example, the we lean Bengals +3 at Pittsburgh, but just can’t pull the trigger on this Bengals team on the road against a team that has owned them for the last decade. It’s tempting to give the Dolphins a shot with Jacoby Brissett at the helm against the Raiders, but there simply isn’t enough line value there. The Arizona Cardinals and Baltimore Ravens are in obvious “fade” spots here, but who the heck is going to bet on the Jaguars or Lions? Certainly not us, which is why we have a rare two wager only slate this weekend. One game that we do like against the spread, and one teaser play that involves the Thursday Night Football game. Thin to win? We’re hoping so.
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
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Green Bay Packers (1-1) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-0)
Sunday September 26th
8:20pm
NBC
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco 49ers -3 (-120)
Over/Under 49.5 (-110)
Primetime football has not disappointed to start the NFL season, and Sunday Night Football has what should be another good one between the Packers and the 49ers. This former rivalry may not quite be on the old Brett Favre and Steve Young level, sorry Cameron Diaz, but this game is definitely made for the bright lights. The Packers quieted their critics with a strong second half in their Monday Night Football victory, while the Niners took care of business against a very competitive Philadelphia Eagles squad.
After a pretty dismal opening six quarters to the season, the Green Bay Packers offense came alive as they ended up taking down the Lions. There was a healthy balance of running back Aaron Jones and Aaron Rodgers to Davante Adams, something Packer fans had been not so patiently waiting to see. Despite some big plays, something still seemed just a bit off within that Green Bay offense. You don’t need to be on your “A” game against Detroit to come away with a win, however you probably do need to be hitting on all cylinders against the San Francisco 49ers. For Green Bay, a lot of what they want to do has to start with their offensive line, a unit that has not looked great in the first two weeks of the season. This group is still meshing together, and at this stage is a far cry from the Bhaktiari, Linsley and Bulaga type group that Rodgers enjoyed for many seasons. How well they can play on Sunday might well depend on exactly who they are playing against. The Niners’ Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead are both questionable, and whether or not they’re available would have a significant impact on the interior of the line specifically. With Kinlaw and Armstead out, the 49ers have given up 5 yards per carry early on on the ground. One player we know will definitely not be in the lineup is linebacker Dre Greenlaw, whose athleticism will be missed against Green Bay’s play action style of offense. The biggest key in stopping Rodgers and the Packers is locking down Davante Adams, a challenge that Emmanuel Moseley will likely draw, if healthy. He’s technically questionable as well, though expected to play. We haven’t mentioned the strength of the 49ers defense yet, which bringing a pass rush off the edge with Nick Bosa and a rotation of players on the other side. Despite all of his accolades and history, Rodgers hasn’t looked good versus heavy pressure this season so it will be important to see what kind of rush San Francisco can generate getting to the QB. This seems like a last familiar story, yet it’s worth repeating or asking again: Who else can step up as a complimentary player for the Green Bay offense? Robert Tonyan seems like the most obvious answer, and they’ll need him or one of the other receivers to factor in if they want to get this road victory.
Injuries absolutely crushed the 49ers last season, and their running back group is already taking a beating to begin this season. The team lost starter Raheem Mostert after just two carries, and now their next three up are all fighting injuries. JaMycal Hasty is on IR, which means youngsters Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon are in line for carries, although both backs are questionable to play themselves. The good news is that no matter who the Niners tend to plug in, their blocking and run scheme always seems to lead them to success running the football. They’ll need someone to be healthy enough to take a shot at a vulnerable Green Bay defense. The Packers defense has been suspect at best early on, and it’s definitely cause for concern down the road this season if they can’t figure things out. A year ago their run defense was not great, so that piece is somewhat expected, it’s the pass defense that is surprisingly struggling. The team is relying more on rookie Eric Stokes opposite of star corner Jaire Alexander, which could end up being a good move. The bigger problem seems to be the lack of a pass rush with Pro Bowl edge rusher Z’Darius Smith out of the lineup. The lack of the pass rush has undoubtedly weakened the coverage, and you can bet is something quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is well aware of. Garoppolo and wideout Deebo Samuel have gotten off to a fast start so you have to imagine Alexander may see a lot of him Sunday night. San Francisco is wanting second year man Brandon Auyik to step up after being a relative non-factor in weeks one and two. In a matchup like this, he’s going to have to make some plays to help keep the offense moving and threaten the deep part of the field. The 49ers also made mention that they’d like to lean on tight end George Kittle a little more as the season progresses so don’t be surprised to hear his name called in this game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Packers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs the 49ers
– Approximately 81% of public bets on the Packers
The public is hammering the Packers as apparently everyone feels Aaron Rodgers and the team are back in the swing of things. This line is hovering around a field goal, we had to shop it to get the -3 slightly juiced. Beyond simply fading the public, there are a couple of other reasons we really like the 49ers in this game. San Francisco has a huge advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball in this game. Enough so that it should negate the disadvantage they have at the quarterback position. The Packers have to go on the road on a bit of a short week, in a home state that hasn’t always been great to Rodgers during his professional career. In general, Rodgers has not played well against the 49ers throughout his illustrious career. As scary as it is going against one of the all-time greats on primetime, right now the Niners have a stronger roster of big men, and that should prove the difference in this game.
BetCrushers Take: San Francisco 49ers -3
49ers 27, Packers 20
Teaser Bet
Carolina Panthers vs. Houston Texans
Arizona Cardinals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Carolina Panthers (2-0) vs. Houston Texans (1-1)
Thursday September 23rd
1:00pm
CBS
NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
Carolina Panthers -8 (-110)
Over/Under 43 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals (2-0) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)
Sunday September 26th
1:00pm
FOX
TIAA Bank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
Arizona Cardinals -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 52 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Panthers -2 and Cardinals -1.5
We’re going on record and stating this isn’t our favorite teaser of all time, and we’re absolutely playing it anyways. When both the numbers and the matchups work in your favor, you’ve simply got to play the metrics and not overthink the “what-ifs” in this contests. The somewhat surprising Carolina Panthers head to Houston to take on the Houston Texans to kick off week three on Thursday Night Football, and the Arizona Cardinals hope to keep their hot start going against a reeling Jacksonville Jaguars group.
Throughout the first two weeks, we mentally cashed our teasers before the games even started as they seemed obvious and easy. Even though there is no such thing as easy in sports betting, the 3-0 start with teasers is what we love to see. We’re firing on another this week and backing Sam Darnold as the quarterback with poise and experience in their road matchup against the Texans. Darnold has played pretty well in his first two starts in Carolina as he clearly benefits from having a weapon like Christian McCaffrey and some quick receivers on the outside. He’ll have some opportunities Thursday to make plays against a Texans defense that has been scrappy, even if outmanned at certain position. The offense will of course run through McCaffrey and if he can get things going, it’ll really loosen things up for Darnold in the passing game. Despite what he told reporters, you know Sam Darnold is excited about the chance to show the world what he can do on this stage after his memorable primetime collapses of the past. On the other side, Houston has played surprisingly well in the first two weeks and may have had a chance to upset the Browns, before losing their veteran QB Tyrod Taylor to injury. With Deshaun Watson still rotting on the bench, Davis Mills enters the chat as the new rookie QB for the Texans. Mills didn’t look awful as he filled in last week, however he’s got a much tougher challenge against the Panthers defense. It’s not outrageous to label this Panthers defense a top five unit in the NFL, even without a ton of star power. Houston will try to play “bully” ball with their big offensive line and veteran running backs, and they absolutely must get something going on the ground to have a chance in this game. That’s going to be tough against this Panther defense that has given up a league low 93 rushing yards and a 2.7 average per carry throughout the first two games. If they can’t get the ground game working, that’s going to put a lot of pressure on Mills to make plays down the field. Brandin Cooks has been great to start the season and he’ll also need to make something happen for the Texans to pull off the upset.
One year ago, the Arizona Cardinals were flying high early in the season before heading to New York to play the Jets, where they completely laid an egg and lost in a big upset. Coming off of a great win to propel them to 2-0 the team now travels across the country to take on the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars. Could we see a repeat letdown from Arizona? Well, anything is possible on an NFL Sunday, however this Jaguar team is in a bit of disarray already. Head coach Urban Meyer seems to be in way over his head and may have already lost the locker room before he even captured it. Despite some promising talent, the Jags are weak on the offensive and defensive lines, which really handicaps a lot of what they’d like to do on offense. Trevor Lawrence has looked both good and bad as he tries to maneuver through a difficult rookie season. The Jaguars need to really try to run the football, something that can be done against the Cardinals interior, if they want to keep Lawrence upright and the Cardinals offense off of the field. The last thing Jacksonville fans need to see is Lawrence under durress from Chandler Jones, J.J. Watt and company. One thing is certain, the Jags will need to score a lot of points to be competitive in this game and get Meyer and Lawrence in the win column in the NFL. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense has been red hot as the young quarterback has been electric running and throwing the football. The Cards’ have some nice matchups as they can run four receivers out anywhere on the field and win individual battles. Rondale Moore looks like a steal in this year’s draft, and having veterans like Christian Kirk and A.J. Green to take pressure off of DeAndre Hopkins makes this offense really tough to stop. The sportsbooks have Arizona’s team total at 31.5 so it’s going to either take a really impressive offensive or defensive performance for Jacksonville to stay in this game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games
– The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Panthers are 9-1 straight up in their last 10 games vs an AFC South opponent
– The Texans are 1-4 straight up in their last 5 games
– The Jaguars are 0-10 straight up in their last 10 games
– The Jaguars are 0-11 in their last 11 games vs an NFC opponent
There’s not a lot of expert breakdown in this teaser. We’re taking the two more experienced quarterbacks, the two better coaches, and overall better teams. Although we’re playing the road teams, we’re getting through the key number of three so it’s hard to pass that up in this situation. In these games, the favorites can really only beat themselves. If they’re even remotely focused and take care of the football, they should be fine to come away with wins and keep our teaser streak to start the season intact.
