ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
Kansas City Chiefs -275
Los Angeles Chargers +650
Denver Broncos +900
Las Vegas Raiders +2000
The division boasting the reigning Super Bowl champions in Kansas City has the longest odds of challengers within. The Broncos, Chargers and Raiders all have reasons to be hopeful, but is there any realistic chance that someone could unseat the Chiefs in 2020? Even if Andy Reid’s group ends up running away with the title, there are plenty of things to watch for with the other three squads.
Denver Broncos
2020 Record – 5-11
2020 Record Against the Spread – 9-7
The Denver Broncos are one of the more perplexing teams entering the season. When you look at the pieces of this team, there is a lot that’s really exciting as they work to improve upon last year’s 5-11 mark. Playing the other side of the fence, there’s some causes for concern, including what could be a potential season-long quarterback controversy. Head coach Vic Fangio has his work cut out for him, and with some right coaching maneuvers the Broncos could fvind themselves in the playoff hunt.
After a tight quarterback competition the team decided to go with veteran Teddy Bridgewater as the opening week signal-caller. The coaching staff had an unenviable task of making that decision, and it’s one that could make or break their entire season. Bridgewater has proven he can be a quality starter in the league, however the BetCrushers believe that Drew Lock was the higher risk and higher potential reward selection. We’re not coaches though, we’re here to break down what Bridgewater and this offense will do from a betting and winning standpoint. He’s certainly set up to do well as the addition of guard Graham Glasnow helps solidify an offensive line that watched Garrett Bolles turn into a really good left tackle last year. Tight end Noah Fant is one of the most physically gifted tight ends in the game, and he should be a focal point of this offense both over the middle, and down the field. The team is thrilled to have WR Courtland Sutton back after missing last season, and is counting on Jerry Jeudy taking a leap in his second season. K.J. Hamler and Tim Patrick round out what has the potential to be a really good receiving group. The running game is in good hands too as Melvin Gordon has vocally stated he wants to be a bellcow. He’ll definitely be sharing opportunities though with veteran Royce Freeman, and second round pick Javonte Williams.
Much like the offense, the defense has the opportunity to be really strong, if things fall into place. The Bronco defense is built well for the AFC West, with an emphasis on the secondary and pass rush. Speaking of the secondary, it’s one of the best in the entire league. The team drafted a future star in Patrick Surtain II to join Kendall Fuller, Ronald Darby, and Bryce Callahan on the outside. They’re anchored by a really good safety tandems in Kareem Jackson and Justin Simmons. The pass rush should be strong if Von Miller can regain even a fraction of his pressure opposite of Bradley Chubb. The weakness on the defense is at the defensive line, where there isn’t a lot of pure talent manning the three man front.
2021 Strength of Schedule – Tied 27th (.471)
Team Win Total Odds – 8.5 Wins (over -115, under -105)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 9-8
It wouldn’t be surprising if the Broncos hit the double-digit win plateau and finds a way into the playoffs. If you’re coaching this team, there are a lot of quality pieces to line up and play. Something about the quarterback uncertainty just isn’t sitting well in their prospects of consistently winning. If Teddy Bridgewater can play at a high-level all season, it’ll be a fun ride for the Broncos. If the QB position does indeed end up causing issues, it’ll derail the team before it even gets started.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
You won’t find us betting for or against the Broncos early in the season. That may cost some serious value in the opening weeks, but until we see what we get, there seems to not be enough clarity for our taste.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Noah Fant (TE)
The Broncos DST could be a sleeper due to their ability to generate pass rush, however you may want to wait to see how they perform before getting too fascinated by them. You could do a lot worse than grabbing Melvin Gordon or Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton in fantasyland. Our favorite play is at a position that’s often hard to be successful with when you don’t have Travis Kelce. Noah Fant is setup to really thrive in his third season at TE with a veteran quarterback tossing to him. Don’t be surprised if Fant ends up as one of the top tight ends in the league when it’s all said and done.
Los Angeles Chargers
2020 Record – 7-9
2020 Record Against the Spread – 9-7
Head coach Brandon Staley believes he has a team in Los Angeles that can win the AFC East, and even hoist the Lombardi Trophy. The Chargers have a talented roster, a quarterback they believe will be a face of the league, and most importantly, a coaching staff that believes it can be the difference between a few key wins and losses. Thinking out loud, how much of an impact does a lack of homefield advantage have for a team like the Chargers?
Quarterback Justin Herbert had as productive of a rookie season as there has been in the NFL, defying many critics and skeptics. Don’t expect a typical sophomore slump from the young gunslinger, as he looks as though he’s only going to elevate his play in year number two. His field vision and physical talents are only trailing what the team feels is his ability as a team leader. Recognizing his value, the team selected left tackle Rashawn Slater with their first round pick to protect the blind side of their franchise QB. Slater joins a solid offensive line as perhaps the most important piece. Familiar faces of Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams key the skill positions, and the team swapped out tight ends as Jared Cook comes over for the departed Hunter Henry. This offense could sneak up on some teams and end up being one of the better scoring units in the league.
For the first time in years, the defense will not have Melvin Ingram applying pressure off the edge, something that has been a staple for the Chargers. The team will of course have Joey Bosa doing his thing on the opposite edge, but the question is how much help will he have? Uchenna Nwosu will be asked to pick up the slack, and much as Rashawn Slater is the key piece on offense, Nwosu could be that key cog on the defense. The team should be stout against the run with Jerry Tillery and free agent Linval Joseph on the middle of the defensive line, and second year middle backer Kenneth Murray. The secondary should be a strength if the team can finally keep Derwin James healthy at the safety position. Los Angeles used an early pick on Asante Samuel, Jr. to give them some extra help at the corner position, which is something needed in the AFC West.
2021 Strength of Schedule – 17th (.493)
Team Win Total Odds – 9.5 Wins (over +105, under -120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 10-7
If you can find a 8.5 or 9 win total, you’ll strongly want to consider taking the Chargers over. Coaching alone should help them grab an extra win or two, and the experience that Herbert got as a rookie shouldn’t be understated. Don’t count on the Chargers dethroning the Chiefs for the AFC West crown, but they should absolutely be considered a threat and a playoff contender.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread, Teasers
The Chargers really don’t have a homefield advantage, or much of a road disadvantage. Utilize the fact that they really shouldn’t have points given or taken away when they’re at home or on the road and figure that into your formula. Additionally, we already know this team plays tough every week, if you can grab extra points when they’re an underdog they’ll be a really good play.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Justin Herbert (QB)
Austin Ekeler is a popular name in fantasy football heading into the season and he should see a lot of volume running and receiving. We’re circling Justin Herbert though, as he should end up a top 7 fantasy quarterback when the season’s over. In many mocks he’s sitting outside of the top 10, so if you don’t have one of the top tier QBs, don’t be afraid to put your team in the hands of Herbert.
Kansas City Chiefs
2020 Record – 14-2
2020 Record Against the Spread – 9-7
You can almost copy and paste the Chiefs breakdown from the past two seasons as this team is stacked, well coached, and have Patrick Mahomes. This year does have a few mixed and matched new pieces, but overall the core is intact from their previous Super Bowl runs. There really only appear to be two scenarios that could keep this team from being in Super Bowl contention in 2021. Injuries to key personnel, or flat out lack of interest and discipline throughout the season.
You really can’t mention the word offense without thinking of the Kansas City Chiefs. The speed, talent and production of this offense has the potential to have yet another record-setting year playing together with Patrick Mahomes. The least consistent piece of the Chiefs offense is the offensive line, as it’s pretty much completely revamped. Orlando Brown and Joe Thuney were brought in to secure the blind side of Mahomes and provide the time he wasn’t allotted in their Super Bowl loss to Tampa. The line is deeper and should be improved, although it may take a little time for them to come together as a group. Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be in line for another good season, assuming Andy Reid gives the running game a share when necessary. Mahomes to Kelce, Hill, Hardman, on basic repeat.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has come quite a long way from the group that was routinely embarrassed just a couple of seasons ago. Their secondary has been opportunistic, led by Tyrann Mathieu and strong safety play. The corner position is a little cloudy with Charvarius Ward and L’Jarius Sneed the only real proven players on the outside. Mike Hughes was brought over for a fresh start from the Vikings, and they really could use one more player to step up in nickel and dime packages. As usual, defensive tackle Chris Jones is the key peg in the defensive front seven and he’ll lead the charge both stopping the run and getting to the passer. Speaking of rushing the passer, that could be a challenge with the current edge players, and that’s if Frank Clark plays a full season. (He’s looking at a very possible suspension).
2021 Strength of Schedule – Tied 11th (.511)
Team Win Total Odds – 12.5 Wins (over -105, under -115)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 13-4
Getting to a third straight Super Bowl is a task that is really difficult to do in this era of free agency. If there were ever a team that has a strong shot to do it though the 2021 Kansas City Chiefs is certainly one. Their team is loaded with speed and talent and they have continuity, something that could be key with a limited offseason. Can Andy Reid keep this team hungry and motivated enough to not have a major letdown? We’re banking on it.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Totals – Over
It may seem like a square wager to look at betting the overs with Kansas City but we’re all in. This team will score 30 with ease each week and more than likely be putting up 40+ with some regularity. Don’t bet the number with these overs, bet the team.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB), Mecole Hardman (WR)
Draft Chiefs, it’s that simple. Mahomes, Kelce and Hill should all be early picks and barring injuries will all put up monster numbers again in 2020. The steal on this team could be Edwards-Helaire and Mecole Hardman as we discussed earlier. Edwards-Helaire will get a lot of red zone touches, will be active in the passing game and teams have to defend the pass against KC, leaving the interior soft for chunks of yardage. Hardman should finally have the reps needed to be a true speed compliment opposite Tyreek Hill.
Las Vegas Raiders
2020 Record – 8-8
2020 Record Against the Spread – 8-8
Since taking over as head coach, Jon Gruden’s Raiders have been the epitome more mediocre. That reflects in their 8-8 record from a season ago and also how they’ve been to bet for and against. Before piling on, let’s remember this team was really in the bottom tier of the league prior to Gruden’s arrival. As seems to be the case, the Raiders depth chart is an odd mixture of players that we can only assume are “Gruden/Mayock” type guys. Things appear like more of the same in Las Vegas as the Raiders lack a clear identity, which could lead to that continued mediocrity.
Elaborating on the identity crisis, the Las Vegas offense is a mixture of a power running game, and jet quick receivers. After several years of continuity on their offensive line, it’s new a new look bunch, headed up by a pair of first round picks at the tackle positions. Josh Jacobs has a little heat behind him as the team brought in Kenyan Drake to help with the running duties. Look for a big season from the Raiders running the football as the offensive line is built for a power running game. Darren Waller heads the list of receivers from the tight end position as he’s pushing Travis Kelce and George Kittle as the top tight end in the league. This could be the season where he takes an even further step in making a name for himself amongst the elites at the position. The most interesting battle will be at the wide receiver position as the team doesn’t really have a true number one type receiver, however does boast half a dozen guys with quality NFL experience. Look for the speedster Henry Ruggs III and free agent John Brown to emerge at the head of the pack, although there’ll likely be some committee at wideout all season for the team. All of that brings us back to quarterback Derek Carr who at age 30 is in the prime of his career. There were rumors all offseason regarding quarterbacks coming to Las Vegas, yet here we are with Carr set to start up another season with the Silver and Black. Carr has had a very solid NFL career, but you get the feeling that this is going to be his last opportunity to prove he’s the Raiders quarterback for the next six or seven years.
This is the best and deepest defense that the Raiders have had in several years, which is obviously needed in a division that contains the Chiefs. The defensive line is beefed up with the additions of Yannick Ngakoue, Solomon Thomas and Quinton Jefferson joining Maxx Crosby and Clelin Ferrell. Cory Littleton will handle his business as the weakside linebacker, and there are half a dozen solid players in the secondary. Individually, there are some good athletes and proven players at all three levels. How well can this group work together to become a unit with continuity that knows how to play for each other?
2021 Strength of Schedule – 8th (.526)
Team Win Total Odds – 7 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 8-9
The Raiders are going to be a tough out no matter who they are playing. They have a veteran quarterback, a good running game and an improved defense. Deep down it’d be nice to see this team succeed, but things just seem to like to another .500ish type record in the 17 game season.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
We won’t know how the Raiders fare in their new home stadium for a few months. What we do know is that this team is woefully bad on the road over the past handful of seasons. You can assume that trend will continue and even getting points won’t help them cover when they’re traveling across the country.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Josh Jacobs (RB), Darren Waller (TE)
Look for a 1200 yard 8 TD type of season from Josh Jacobs. Darren Waller should also continue the Raider string of good tight end production partnered with Derek Carr. Both of these guys are pretty obvious and need to be in your lineups if possible.
