I had to put a rush on the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-15-2021 due to some scheduling issues. So to avoid missing a second straight day, I’ve compromised detail for speed to get this out before heading out the door. After a good weekend on the diamond, here we go with a Tuesday solo shot to keep things moving…
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets (-145)
- The Mets lineup has been improving in recent weeks with consistent production (117 wRC+ last 14 days; 127 wRC+ last 7).
- Chicago’s offense is trending in the right direction, yet still lagging behind New York (85 wRC+ last 14 days; 106 wRC+ last 7).
- While the Mets have shown little difference in their LHP/RHP splits, Chicago continues to have a ~10% bias towards lefties.
A. Mills (R) vs. T. Walker (R)
- Alec Mills has settled in as a 5.00 FIP righty used primarily as a reliever this season with a K rate slashed nearly in half from his 2018-19 breakout seasons (1.50 K/BB in 2021).
- Mills’ 7.53 FIP/5.79 xFIP away from The Friendly Confines includes a lone spot start two months ago in Milwaukee – 2 runs on 2 hits in 4.0 innings.
- Taijuan Walker stumbled recently at San Diego, but has otherwise delivered five outings with 1 run or fewer in his last six.
- Walks have plagued Walker this season yet again (3.54 BB/9), though not consistently as he has limited free passes to one or fewer in five of the last seven outings.
Bullpens In Play
- Chicago’s middle relief will be tested with Mills expected to go approximately 3+ innings tonight; however at least two members of their stout back end should be available for high-leverage situations.
- New York is in a tougher spot in terms of usage, especially with closer Edwin Diaz coming off of his third appearance in the last four games – leaving Seth Lugo as their lone high-leverage pitcher that is rested and in good form.
WAGER: Mets -1 @ -106
I like where the Mets are at these days, especially with their hitters producing at a level near my preseason expectations. Do not count out the Cubs lineup that can be quite dangerous, even with the starting pitching edge going to Taijuan Walker – as long as he does not have one of his 3+ walk outings. Chicago may have an open door once New York goes to the bullpen, though I expect them to be playing from behind at that point. -150 is at the high end of what I believe to be a fair price, but you know I won’t pay that much juice. I’ll take the risk that the -1 pushes and lay a much shorter price behind Walker and a Mets team that is playing some solid baseball right now.
Around the Horn
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