Weekends are good, but this one has been especially good. Yesterday’s bullpen blowup in Philly provided the better lucky than good sweep to guarantee a winning weekend – if I play my cards right. Scared money don’t make money as they say, but I also have to respect the tricky nature of Sunday baseball. Managers are looking ahead to their next series and very few teams have Monday off. So let’s fire up a solo shot with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-13-2021!
2021 Featured Handicap Results
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets (+110)
Shall we run it back after Saturday’s solid 4-1 win at Citi Field? Absolutely. There are certain aspects of this matchup that did not change overnight. One of those elements is the relative form of these two offenses. We watched this play out yesterday as the Mets efficiently scored 3 runs on a pair of homers, while the Padres plated only 1 run on a Fernando Tatis, Jr. solo shot that pushed Marcus Stroman out of the ballgame. San Diego’s offense will certainly bounce back into better form at some point. Conversely, the Mets’ bats will come back down to reality from their torrid pace. Until then, the disparity is real. If you want the lowdown on the current state of affairs, yesterday’s handicap has the numbers.
C. Paddack (R) vs. J. Lucchesi (L)
San Diego castoff Joey Lucchesi gets the nod this afternoon as the Mets are in prime position for a series sweep. He’s been a solid 4.00 FIP stopgap starter this season with a deceiving 1-4 record and 5.79 ERA. Don’t let that fool you too much because his underlying metrics speak to a more reasonable performance (39.7% ground ball rate, 35.9% hard hit rate, and 3.75 K/BB ratio). Lucchesi took his lumps early in the season but has settled in with three straight good outings in which he yielded just 2 runs in 12.1 innings against Miami, Colorado, and this Padres club.
San Diego was in the midst of this ongoing offensive slump when the Mets were in town yet still scratched out a 2-0 win in Lucchesi’s start. Joey took the loss after giving up 1 run in 4.2 innings via a Manny Machado solo home run. The 28-year-old lefty has yet to make it through 5 innings this season, placing added stress on the Mets bullpen to pick up 4-5 innings in relief. One key in today’s matchup is that San Diego has been about 10% less productive against left-handed pitching than against righties this season.
San Diego’s Answer
This is where the Sheriff Chris Paddack comes to the rescue, right? The former highly-touted prospect had a rough start to the 2021 campaign before settling in nicely in May. However, the 25-year-old stumbled in his last two outings, giving up 8 runs in 10.2 innings against the Cubs and the Mets last weekend. New York touched him up for 3 runs on 6 hits, including a Dom Smith solo home run. Like Lucchesi, Paddack is a 4.00 FIP grade of pitcher with a good 44.2% ground ball rate and 36.9% hard hit rate that is significantly improved from last season.
What makes today’s series finale very interesting is how these teams are diverging. Yes, this is the same perspective that I had yesterday – and is the same reason why I am back on the Mets. But this contest not only features offenses heading in opposite directions, the starters are in varying forms as well. However, starting pitchers can be trickier to gauge when it comes to being on the upswing or the downswing. This is why I have to look at these two in a vacuum and give Paddack a slight edge over Lucchesi. That said, the offensive splits pretty much neutralize this edge and bring things back towards parity. Now it’s a matter of which offense blinks first, with the Mets having the edge at this point in time.
The Bullpen Dilemma
Yesterday I noted how the New York relief unit has gone under the radar as one of the better groups in the majors. Depending on how you measure pitching success, they’ve been just as good as the vaunted San Diego bullpen – whether it be full season (Mets 3.24 FIP/3.70 xFIP; Padres 3.79 FIP/3.67 xFIP) or the last two weeks (Mets 3.74 FIP/3.85 xFIP; Padres 4.81 FIP/3.92 xFIP). Today, however, my main concern is bullpen usage rather than overall performance. Both teams are back in action tomorrow with no rest, further extending the game theory approach to reliever availability. San Diego heads to Colorado while New York stays home and awaits a surging Chicago Cubs team in a battle of division leaders.
Availability is the Key Concern
After Saturday’s action, the Mets have pitched three of their strongest-performing relievers in back-to-back outings. Middle reliever Aaron Loup, setup man Seth Lugo, and closer Edwin Diaz helped shut down the Padres in the first two games. This likely leaves Jeurys Familia and Trevor May to work the later innings with the 6th and 7th – and possibly part of the 5th – hanging in the balance for other middle relievers. And with the struggling David Peterson scheduled to get the start tomorrow, the Mets may need as many quality arms as possible to hang with the Cubs.
San Diego, on the other hand, has a fresh back-end trio of Austin Adams, Emilio Pagan, and closer Mark Melancon available in case of a close one today. Assuming Paddack goes 6 innings, the Padres have multiple quality options to throw out there in the late innings. They may also feel less inclined to hold back their big guns back as they have a less potent opponent on deck with the Rockies. Ryan Weathers will likely start the series opener in Colorado and likely require 4 innings of relief, though bulk middle relievers should get the call once they hit the 6th inning tomorrow. Bullpen availability may trump the Mets’ advantage in this scenario, pushing me away from the full game wager and into the first 5 innings only. Maybe I am overthinking this – or maybe not!
WAGER: Mets First 5 Innings +111
GREEDY ALTERNATIVE: Mets First 5 Innings -1/2 @ +150
Want to get greedy? Lay the hook on the first 5 inning wager and the potential profit jumps nearly 40 cents. However, I am playing it more safely with these Sunday games where lineups can be wonky and other managerial decisions can throw off the handicap. I have no shame in being conservative after a good week, so I’ll lay low and enjoy the game with push protection in my back pocket. No regrets and BOL to you!
Around the Horn
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