The MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-6-2021 goes back-to-back as we return to the home of last night’s solo shot, Oracle Park. I put my full faith and confidence in Kevin Gausman along with the red-hot Giants offense to pull out a decisive first 5 inning win against the Cubbies – and they managed to squeeze it out. So I’ll keep riding that horse and one of my favorite players out there, former Cincinnati Red Johnny Cueto.
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants (-105)
Today’s game hit my radar when it opened at San Francisco -105 with Kyle Hendricks opposing Johnny Cueto. Then after Saturday’s first 5 inning victory, I did some brainstorming with a compatriot of ours, @PhillySprtsRich, and we essentially said the Giants are a go again if Gausman makes it through 7 innings and gets the bullpen some rest. And that’s exactly what took place. So we got what we wanted in terms of a cheap price on a positive-trending team at home.
Yesterday, I wrote about the six hot Giants hitters fueling their team’s fire at the plate. But Saturday’s win wasn’t necessarily led by an overwhelming offensive display. Granted, the Giants still have positively-trending offensive production in terms of wRC+ (last 14 days: 125, last 7 days: 132). Conversely, the Cubs continued their slide (last 14 days: 90, last 7 days: 81) due to multiple key hitters who have found themselves in a bit of a slump. Patrick Wisdom is certainly not one of them, as he threw up a gaudy 283 wRC+ over the past 7 days. I noted in Saturday’s handicap how Wisdom has taken full advantage of this opportunity to be an everyday starter due to David Bote’s injury – and the guy damn near submarines my bet!
Chicago Cubs Hitters (Trailing 7 Days)
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryant | .217 | .250 | .609 | 126 |
| Baez | .148 | .179 | .481 | 75 |
| Pederson | .125 | .222 | .375 | 65 |
| Rizzo | .250 | .250 | .350 | 63 |
| Sogard | .176 | .222 | .235 | 29 |
Lineups are obviously not out this morning, but the schedule clues us in on how these managers may handle today’s game. San Francisco had a day off last Wednesday and are off tomorrow before heading to Texas. So I’m optimistic that Gable Kapler gives us Dickerson, Posey, Crawford, Dugger, and Solano. His hands may be tied with Evan Longoria, who left in the 9th inning after colliding with Brandon Crawford. Chicago, on the other hand, is in the middle of a road trip from hell and leadoff man Joc Pederson existed last night’s game with lower back stiffness. They haven’t had a day off since May 24th and won’t have their next one until June 10th after a series in San Diego. It is hard to tell how many Cubs regulars will sit in this afternoon’s finale.
K. Hendricks (R) vs. J. Cueto (R)
So I have to ask the question – are these guys basically the same pitcher at this point in their careers? Johnny Cueto may have a few years on Kyle Hendricks, but both are low-walk contact pitchers that have maintained their velocities in recent seasons. It’s not like these two are hurling fireballs out there and both have resorted more to deception as they have aged. Cueto’s four-pitch repertoire continues to be effective save the cutter, while Hendricks’ slider is the only pitch in his four-pitch mix that has graded out positively in 2021. So we turn to the tale of the tape to see how their arsenals have treated them:
| J. Cueto | K. Hendricks | |
|---|---|---|
| FIP | 2.64 | 5.51 |
| xFIP | 3.75 | 4.11 |
| GB% | 37.4% | 43.5% |
| HH% | 36.8% | 38.8% |
| K/BB | 6.00 | 4.64 |
| HR/9 | 0.41 | 2.31 |
| BABIP | .336 | .311 |
Both veterans are producing career-low ground ball rates and career-high hard hit rates this season, and I must flag Cueto’s super low home run rate as something that should rise as the year goes on. And vice versa for Hendricks’ rate. The wind is blowing out again this afternoon at Oracle Park, so the long ball is certainly in play as it was yesterday. Neither pitcher has shown great consistency this season and Kyle will likely pitch an extra inning or so past Johnny given their recent usage trends. This increases the risk that the Giants’ relief unit poses as the clear lesser of the two bullpens.
Bullpens
Late-game pitching is exactly why the Giants have very short odds at home. Manager David Ross has paced Chicago’s very good bullpen quite well this series and has plenty of options for innings 7/8/9 this afternoon. Setup man Ryan Tepera got his first work since Tuesday, while Andrew Chafin and closer Craig Kimbrel are well rested and ready to roll. Ross’ options may be less robust when it comes to middle relief but Hendricks delivering 6 innings of work should make his decisions a lot easier. And, realistically, that is what we have to expect this afternoon.
On the other hand, San Francisco threw both of their closers last night – Jake McGee and Tyler Rogers – in back-to-back games now. And after Rogers’ sketchy 9th inning, I’m sure he’s a prime candidate to get today off. Even though I’ve stomached countless late innings of baseball games with my money on the line over the years, this is a good time to go back to Opening Day’s full game/first 5 inning split position that actually salvaged a near-push when the Giants’ bullpen blew the game. It’s not the best unit to begin with and this contest should be close late. So I’ll chop my position up and ask Johnny to give it everything he’s got to clear the first 5 inning bet and leave things in the hands of a shaky bullpen. Let’s ride this wave one more time!
WAGER: Giants -105 (1/2 unit) *Good to -120*
WAGER: Giants First 5 Innings +100 (1/2 unit) *Good to -115*
This is a scenario where San Francisco’s offense is inevitably slowing down, especially as the injuries continue to mount. Plus the hot-hitting Evan Longoria is likely out based on how he looked after last night’s collision. Likewise, Joc Pederson could be rested with his back stiffness given the Cubs’ ongoing brutal schedule. And despite the fact that these starters provide some roll of the dice randomness to the equation, I have to look at the home team laying short odds to sweep the series. After all, San Francisco’s magic will likely run dry at some point soon.
Around the Horn
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