Some days it just ain’t in the cards. Wednesday was one of those days for my handicapping, most notably in Colorado where the Rockies were dominated by the Cubs. Senzatela laid one of his eggs and Hamels pulled an impressive outing out of the jaws of a 1st inning bases-loaded jam. Colorado’s 10-game home win streak was snapped as Chicago breaks their road losing streak.
Texas was live for the entire game at Fenway until the 9th inning when Chavez loaded the bases with no outs. The game was tied and he did not have the stuff to get out of it as he walked the winning run home. The main risk backing the Rangers (and the Red Sox) is losing the game late with the bullpen, so no crying over spilled milk there.
My call on Houston went about the same way, except that it went 14 innings. I’ll be completely honest in saying that I did not watch this game and was actually asleep from the 6th inning onward. So I don’t have too many thoughts on it, other than knowing that backing the Astros right now comes with the risk of an offensive stall-out due the injuries to their lineup. Again, that is part of the risk profile with the team and I cannot be upset when a probable event like that occurs.
A very disappointing 0-3 Wednesday loses 3.13 units and sets the week back to -1.78 units on a 2-5 record. Spinning my wheels at times has been a regular part of the MLB grind for years. Loose betting in April truly cost me in this first half of the season, and being stuck in neutral won’t dig me out of that hole. Using that as another learning lesson on the way to being a sharper handicapper offsets any small loss to the bankroll.
I won’t be making yesterday’s loss back in one chunk since there’s one game on my card, and it’s an interesting one…
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves
By the Numbers: Braves RL +125
This 4-game series has been anything but boring, and this afternoon’s finale may be the best game yet. Joe Musgrove gets another crack at the Braves after being ejected in the 1st inning on Monday. I truly have no idea which team gets a motivational advantage in this situation, so I am playing this strictly by the numbers.
Putting Monday’s debacle aside, Musgrove has been less effective lately despite him having a solid season so far. He gave 8 innings of 3-run ball on June 5th against the Braves in Pittsburgh. However, his last 4 actual starts (not including Monday) have been less than spectacular. Musgrove gave up 17 earned runs, 30 hits, and 6 home runs in 25.1 innings. To my eyes, his batted ball metrics don’t tell me much and are somewhat similar to Teheran’s.
Julio Teheran has really turned his season around since April. His last 4 starts yielded 2 earned runs, 11 hits, and 0 home runs over 21.2 innings. Teheran does not typically work as deep into the game as Musgrove does, so the Atlanta bullpen will probably be called upon to put in 4 innings of work. Both teams’ relievers were used heavily in yesterday’s extra-inning affair. Musgrove has been eating innings when he can to avoid the Pirates bullpen that has been absolutely terrible lately.
Pittsburgh has been hitting much better in recent weeks, despite their bullpen’s tendency to keep them out of the win column. If Musgrove can go deep today like he did last week, this glaring hole for the Pirates will be significantly mitigated. Atlanta’s bullpen has performed stronger in recent weeks and their offense has been scoring runs efficiently.
Putting the Musgrove-Donaldson issue aside, I believe Teheran is in better form than Musgrove. If Atlanta cannot get to Musgrove early and often, Hurdle may lean on him hard to go 7 innings and reduce their bullpen exposure. Teheran should have success but likely won’t go much further than the 5th inning. These tired bullpens may have a significant impact on the outcome of this game, especially when it comes to covering my run line bet.
The Braves are chugging along with 6 wins in a row and are 8-2 in their last 10 games, including a 4-0 mark at home in that stretch. Pittsburgh is 2-8 in their last 10 games with 0-6 on the road. Like we saw in Colorado yesterday, such streaks are made to be broken so I cannot put a lot of stock in them other than to say that these teams are generally headed in opposite directions. Who knows what effect Monday’s ejection will have on Musgrove and these two clubs, but my money is behind a decisive Atlanta victory this afternoon.
