The MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-22-2021 comes on the heels of a grind it out split decision between both of the Sox. The Chicago version struggled mightily at the hands of Jordan Montgomery, had their promising 9th inning rally shut down by a textbook triple play, and then gave up the winning run in the bottom of the 9th. Boston’s Sox, on the other hand, piled on Philadelphia as a +140ish dog. All told, we start the weekend on a positive note and swing away with a Saturday Solo Shot…
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers (+175)
The latest edition of the AL West/Lone Star State series started off with the underdog Rangers picking off the Astros in 10 innings last night. Despite that result, Houston comes into this afternoon’s contest having won eight of their last ten games as opposed to Texas having won just two of their last ten. Much of these macro trends can be attributed to which direction each offense has been heading in, especially over the last two weeks.
- Houston last 7 days: .325/.378/.452; 139 wRC+ (4th in MLB)
- Houston last 14 days: .304/.373/.471; 140 wRC+ (1st in MLB)
- Texas last 7 days: .207/.264/.348; 71 wRC+ (25th in MLB)
- Texas let 14 days: .224/.285/.382; 86 wRC+ (21st in MLB)
Clearly, stating that Houston’s offense is head and shoulders above Texas’ is not a big brain moment for me. Especially when these metrics meant nothing after 10 innings of play last night. However, there is no denying that the Astros offense has cranked out about 50% greater production than the Rangers over a trailing two-week period. But laying -200 is a long-term bankroll disaster waiting to happen. Lay a reduced -125 on the -1.5 run line? That sounds more like it – if you have confidence in Houston’s below-average bullpen against Texas’ mid-pack relief unit.
L. McCullers (R) vs. J. Lyles (R)
This is the pitching matchup that I am most interested in attacking. The 1+ run gap of FIP between these two and the discrepancy in offensive production “earned” the Astros a hefty -200 price tag. Lance McCullers, Jr. has been nothing short of rock solid since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2020. His 10.03 K/9 rate is right where it should be but Lance has yielded multiple walks in all eight of his starts. That is iffy when considering that he has a negative regression-prone .226 BABIP and a spiked 47.3% hard hit rate. Those indicators alone should be enough to make you reconsider laying -200 today.
But it’s not like McCullers is dancing around land mines though. His 3.71 FIP/3.75 xFIP reflects a very strong season to date, much of which is owed to his new slider than has been wicked. Plus it makes him a bona fide five-pitch starter that can challenge hitters despite a tick down in velocity this season. McCullers’ slider and curve have been great and are the type of pitches that can neutralize a dangerous hitter like Joey Gallo. However, rookie sensation Adolis Garcia – who homered last night – has been excellent against sliders along with Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Much respect for what the 27-year-old righty has done these past two seasons, and with that respect also earns my money.
Is Lyles the Stopper?
His counterpart Jordan Lyles could be on the verge of a nice turnaround to his season. After a string of six outings giving up 3+ runs, Jordan was respectable against the surging Giants then stymied the Yankees last week with 6 great innings. Lyles has ratcheted up his strikeouts over his last three starts, and could certainly use five or six against a tough-hitting Astros club. To his chagrin, Houston has struck out a league-low 19.1% of their plate appearances against right-handed pitchers. So generating weaker contact and singles is likely the best way to attack Houston in the absence of a dominating repertoire. Going about do that is another matter altogether.
Unfortunately, Lyles’ 50.0% hard hit rate does not help matters. He relies heavily on a low-90s fastball that continues to be a liability. And Houston has a lineup that has feasted on fastballs, so Jordan may need to diversify his offerings more so than usual today. And that will likely manifest via a very good slider that Lyles has leaned on a bit more this season. Well, that may not be the pitch to challenge Yordan Alvarez with – a dude who has absolutely scorched this pitch. Anything can happen in a given ballgame, however, Jordan Lyles has his hands full with this Astros lineup and I expect them to strike early and often. That’s why you’ll have to pay around -125 to back Houston’s team total over 5 runs. Give me Lance McCullers and this terrific Astros offense, but leave the bullpens out of it. That’s my way of looking at it anyhow.
WAGER: Astros First 5 Innings -1 @ +100
ALTERNATIVE: Astros First 5 Innings -1/2 @ -135
All sportsbooks are not created equal – especially when it comes to their betting menus. This is a situation where I would rather shed the 35-cent juice and play for a healthy Houston lead behind Lance McCullers. If I am truly confident in Lance holding the Rangers to one or two and for the Houston offense to crank out several runs like a well-oiled machine, then reaching for a multiple-run lead after 5 innings sounds like a fantastic even-money proposition. A more limited book may only have the typical -1/2 run wager around -135, which is not too hateful either. So I may push on a one-run Houston lead but that’s just my way of implementing the handicap. BOL with your plays today!
Around the Horn
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